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Frontier Developments plc (FRRDF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Frontier Developments plc $13.63, price $7.34, upside +85.7%, quality 82 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Frontier Developments plc
FRRDF · USStrongly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside with high Quality.
✓Fair value $13.63 · Strongly undervalued (+85.7%)
✓Quality 82/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +3.5 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 19.4% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 66/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.50 – $13.75 · fair‑value band $9.54 – $17.72 · the $7.34 price screens below the $13.63 fair value. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Frontier Developments plc develops and publishes video games for the interactive entertainment sector. It develops games using its cross-platform technology, Cobra. The company was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Cambridge, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Frontier Developments plc (FRRDF) currently trades at $7.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.63, implying the stock looks roughly 46.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $24.12 per share, and 18 of the 24 models we run sit above the $7.34 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.43, and 6 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $9.54 (bear) to $17.72 (bull), the price of $7.34 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 82/100 (high quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Frontier Developments plc reported revenue of £90.6M in FY2025 versus £91.1M in FY2021, a compound −0.1%/yr. Reported net income was £22.0M in FY2025, compounding +0.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $296M · P/E ratio 11.0 · P/S ratio 2.67 · EPS (TTM) $0.6700 · Net margin 24.3% · Return on equity 22.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.3% · Operating margin 13.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 44% fair-value upside, at 86%, FRRDF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $9.54
Fair Value $13.63
Bull $17.72
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.6700 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$21.08
$29.54
$40.57
79
Growth DCF
$21.00
$28.73
$38.29
77
Owner Earnings
$17.34
$24.12
$32.97
74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$21.08
$29.54
$40.57
79
Owner Earnings
$17.34
$24.12
$32.97
74
5Y Revenue Exit
$12.68
$16.01
$19.89
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
$16.58
$23.51
$31.49
73
5Y P/E Exit
$17.30
$24.89
$32.89
69
10Y Revenue Exit
$16.07
$19.86
$24.50
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$18.32
$24.38
$32.26
67
10Y P/E Exit
$18.72
$25.21
$33.20
62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$5.71
$20.42
$27.51
64
Lynch FV
$4.81
$6.87
$8.94
61
PEG = 1.0
$4.81
$6.87
$8.94
57
EPV
$5.33
$5.70
$6.01
70
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$13.86
$18.49
$23.11
63
P/S Multiple
$9.07
$12.09
$15.11
58
P/B Multiple
$9.52
$12.70
$15.87
55
EV/EBIT
$8.05
$10.01
$11.97
63
EV/EBITDA
$14.63
$18.77
$22.92
64
EV/Revenue
$6.63
$8.54
$10.45
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$1.81
$2.43
$3.63
51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$21.00
$28.73
$38.29
77
Rev-Margin DCF
$12.42
$15.52
$19.00
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$4.16
$5.31
$8.01
69
ROIC Compounder
$5.53
$6.18
$6.88
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$9.49
$13.55
$17.62
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
82/100
Of which business quality 82 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Profitability
70
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
57
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
96
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
57
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
61
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
62
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.8% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.8%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.2% vs 29.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 14%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−21.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in GBP, UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −23.1% a year for the price and +3.3% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+6.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+6.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)+5.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.3%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.8%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Electronic Gaming & Multimedia stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NetEase, Inc NTES | $121.82 | $254.16 | +109% |
| Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc TTWO | $203.62 | $75.29 | −63% |
| Roblox Corporation RBLX | $43.00 | $45.24 | +5% |
| Zhejiang Century Huatong Group 002602 | ¥14.23 | ¥27.63 | +94% |
| International Games System Co 3293 | 761.00 TWD | 1,094 TWD | +44% |
| Giant Network Group 002558 | ¥23.62 | ¥31.97 | +35% |
| KRAFTON, Inc 259960 | 198,000 KRW | 410,472 KRW | +107% |
| CD Projekt S.A CDR | 244.60 PLN | 269.06 PLN | +10% |
| 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group 002555 | ¥17.38 | ¥39.02 | +125% |
| Kingnet Network Co 002517 | ¥16.17 | ¥22.00 | +36% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Frontier Developments plc (FRRDF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.63 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $7.34, about +86% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of FRRDF?
Our model-based fair value for Frontier Developments plc is $13.63 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $7.34.
What is the quality score of FRRDF?
Frontier Developments plc has a Quality Score of 82/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Frontier Developments plc (FRRDF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.63 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.54, optimistic scenario $17.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Frontier Developments plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.63, about +86% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $7.34 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $9.54, optimistic scenario $17.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Frontier Developments plc (FRRDF)?
Frontier Developments plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £103M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Frontier Developments plc (FRRDF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Frontier Developments plc would have to grow free cash flow by -21.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FRRDF use?
Our models discount Frontier Developments plc at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Frontier Developments plc that is -21.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Frontier Developments plc (FRRDF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Frontier Developments plc grew +3.5 % a year. The price currently implies -21.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Frontier Developments plc (FRRDF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Frontier Developments plc (-21.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Frontier Developments plc (FRRDF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 25.29 %: that much free cash flow Frontier Developments plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Frontier Developments plc (FRRDF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Frontier Developments plc it is $13.63 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $7.34. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Frontier Developments plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, FRRDF trades below its calculated fair value: price $7.34, fair value $13.63, a gap of about +86% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FRRDF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.63). For Frontier Developments plc the two are $6.29 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Frontier Developments plc worth?
The market values Frontier Developments plc at about $296M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $7.34; our models calculate a fair value of $13.63 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FRRDF?
Our models span a range for Frontier Developments plc: cautious scenario $9.54, base $13.63, optimistic $17.72 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $7.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is FRRDF from its 52-week high?
Frontier Developments plc trades at $7.34, at its 52-week high of $7.34 and 76% above the low of $4.17 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.63 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Frontier Developments plc?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value NetEase, Inc, Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc, Roblox Corporation, Zhejiang Century Huatong Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Frontier Developments plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $7.34, calculated fair value $13.63 (+86%), Quality Score 82/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FRRDF calculated?
We run Frontier Developments plc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $13.63, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Frontier Developments plc currently trades 46 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Frontier Developments plc (FRRDF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $7.34. Our model-based fair value is $13.63, about +86% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Frontier Developments plc right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (82/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($9.54). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range ($9.54 to $17.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Frontier Developments plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Frontier Developments plc (FRRDF)?
The market capitalisation of Frontier Developments plc is $296M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Frontier Developments plc (FRRDF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Frontier Developments plc is 11.0. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Frontier Developments plc (FRRDF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Frontier Developments plc is 2.67 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Frontier Developments plc (FRRDF)?
Earnings per share at Frontier Developments plc are $0.6700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Frontier Developments plc (FRRDF)?
The net margin of Frontier Developments plc is 24.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Frontier Developments plc (FRRDF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Frontier Developments plc is 22.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Frontier Developments plc (FRRDF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Frontier Developments plc is −4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Frontier Developments plc (FRRDF)?
The operating margin of Frontier Developments plc is 13.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Frontier Developments plc (FRRDF)?
Revenue at Frontier Developments plc is growing +26.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Frontier Developments plc (FRRDF)?
Earnings per share at Frontier Developments plc are growing +82.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Frontier Developments plc (FRRDF) hold?
Frontier Developments plc holds more cash than debt, £23.0M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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