Galp Energia SGPS S.A. (GALP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Galp Energia SGPS S.A. €19.18, price €22.45, upside -14.6%, quality 72 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Galp Energia SGPS S.A. for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €6.59 – €22.45 · fair‑value band €14.28 – €27.91 · the €22.45 price screens above the €19.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Follow Galp Energia SGPS in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Galp Energia SGPS is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. operates as an integrated energy operator in Portugal and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Upstream, Industrial & Midstream, Commercial, and Renewables. The Upstream segment engages in the exploration, development, and production of hydrocarbons primarily in Brazil, Mozambique, and Namibia.
Show more
Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. operates as an integrated energy operator in Portugal and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Upstream, Industrial & Midstream, Commercial, and Renewables. The Upstream segment engages in the exploration, development, and production of hydrocarbons primarily in Brazil, Mozambique, and Namibia. The Industrial & Midstream segment involved in refining and logistics business in Portugal, as well as is involved in activities related to oil products, carbon dioxide, gas, and power supply and trading activities. This segment also includes co-generation. The Commercial segment is involved in the areas of retail to final business-to-business and business to oil, gas, electric mobility, power and non-fuel products. The Renewables segment is involved in the renewables power generation and new businesses. In addition, the company engages in the reinsurance business. The company was formerly known as Galp " Petróleos e Gás de Portugal, SGPS, S.A. and changed its name to Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. in September 2000. Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Lisbon, Portugal.
Stock analysis
Galp Energia SGPS S.A. (GALP) currently trades at €22.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €19.18, implying the stock looks roughly 17.1% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €23.89 per share, and 12 of the 24 models we run sit above the €22.45 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €3.96, and 12 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €14.28 (bear) to €27.91 (bull), the price of €22.45 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Galp Energia SGPS S.A. reported revenue of €19.5B in FY2025 versus €16.1B in FY2021, a compound +4.9%/yr. Reported net income was €1.1B in FY2025, compounding +309.1%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap €16.6B · P/E ratio 17.9 · P/S ratio 1.03 · EPS (TTM) €1.03 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 5.7% · Return on equity 16.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 63% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −15%, GALP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €14.28Fair Value €19.18Bull €27.91
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.2560 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.3% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+48.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+45.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−2% → 11%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−3.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.7% a year for the price and −5.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 52 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−15% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Return on assets9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)15% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.70× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Galp Energia SGPS S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GALP
Frequently asked questions
Is Galp Energia SGPS S.A. (GALP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €19.18 versus a price of €22.45, about −15% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GALP?
Our model-based fair value for Galp Energia SGPS S.A. is €19.18 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €22.45.
What is the quality score of GALP?
Galp Energia SGPS S.A. has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Galp Energia SGPS S.A. (GALP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €19.18 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €14.28, optimistic scenario €27.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Galp Energia SGPS S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €19.18, about −15% upside versus a price of €22.45 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €14.28, optimistic scenario €27.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Galp Energia SGPS S.A. (GALP)?
Galp Energia SGPS S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €19.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Galp Energia SGPS S.A. pay a dividend?
Galp Energia SGPS S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.03% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Galp Energia SGPS S.A. (GALP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Galp Energia SGPS S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +6.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GALP use?
Our models discount Galp Energia SGPS S.A. at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for Portugal. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Galp Energia SGPS S.A. that is +6.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Galp Energia SGPS S.A. (GALP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Galp Energia SGPS S.A. grew +11.4 % a year. The price currently implies +6.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Galp Energia SGPS S.A. (GALP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Galp Energia SGPS S.A. (+6.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Galp Energia SGPS S.A. (GALP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.94 %: that much free cash flow Galp Energia SGPS S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Galp Energia SGPS S.A. (GALP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Galp Energia SGPS S.A. it is €19.18 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €22.45. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Galp Energia SGPS S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GALP trades above its calculated fair value: price €22.45, fair value €19.18, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GALP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€22.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€19.18). For Galp Energia SGPS S.A. the two are €3.27 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Galp Energia SGPS S.A. worth?
The market values Galp Energia SGPS S.A. at about €16.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €22.45; our models calculate a fair value of €19.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GALP?
Our models span a range for Galp Energia SGPS S.A.: cautious scenario €14.28, base €19.18, optimistic €27.91 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €22.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GALP?
Galp Energia SGPS S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €19.18 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 4.3, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 7.3.
What is the PEG ratio of GALP?
The PEG ratio of Galp Energia SGPS S.A. is 0.95 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Galp Energia SGPS S.A. (GALP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Galp Energia SGPS S.A. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 16.1%, debt of 0.70 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GALP from its 52-week high?
Galp Energia SGPS S.A. trades at €22.45, at its 52-week high of €22.45 and 63% above the low of €13.73 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €19.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Galp Energia SGPS S.A.?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Galp Energia SGPS S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €22.45, calculated fair value €19.18 (−15%), Quality Score 72/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GALP calculated?
We run Galp Energia SGPS S.A. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €19.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Galp Energia SGPS S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Galp Energia SGPS S.A. (GALP)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €22.45. Our model-based fair value is €19.18, about −15% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Galp Energia SGPS S.A. right now?
A fairly wide model range (€14.28 to €27.91) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Galp Energia SGPS S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Galp Energia SGPS S.A. (GALP)?
The market capitalisation of Galp Energia SGPS S.A. is €16.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Galp Energia SGPS S.A. (GALP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Galp Energia SGPS S.A. is 1.03 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Galp Energia SGPS S.A. (GALP)?
Earnings per share at Galp Energia SGPS S.A. are €1.03 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Galp Energia SGPS S.A. (GALP)?
The dividend yield of Galp Energia SGPS S.A. is 3.0% (payout 66.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Galp Energia SGPS S.A. (GALP)?
The net margin of Galp Energia SGPS S.A. is 5.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Galp Energia SGPS S.A. (GALP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Galp Energia SGPS S.A. is 16.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Galp Energia SGPS S.A. (GALP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Galp Energia SGPS S.A. is 14.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Galp Energia SGPS S.A. (GALP)?
The operating margin of Galp Energia SGPS S.A. is 14.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Galp Energia SGPS S.A. (GALP)?
Revenue at Galp Energia SGPS S.A. is growing +4.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Galp Energia SGPS S.A. (GALP)?
Earnings per share at Galp Energia SGPS S.A. are growing +530% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Galp Energia SGPS S.A. (GALP) carry?
The net debt of Galp Energia SGPS S.A. is €1.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Galp Energia SGPS S.A. in the live analysis
One click puts Galp Energia SGPS S.A. on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
