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Golden Agri-Resources (GARPY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Golden Agri-Resources $66.27, price $23.58, upside +181.0%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Consumer Defensive · US · Home Singapore · ISIN US3807872003

GA Golden Agri-Resources logo Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Golden Agri-Resources

GARPY · US

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value $66.27 · Strongly undervalued (+181.0%)
✓Quality 61/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +12.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·3.3% dividend yield · Safety not assessed
✓Ranks above peers (11/15)
!Narrow moat 31/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$26.50 $7.00 Fair Value $66.27 Jun 2015 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $7.00 – $26.50 · fair‑value band $49.70 – $82.84 · the $23.58 price screens below the $66.27 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Golden Agri-Resources Ltd, an investment holding company, operates as an integrated palm oil plantation company in China, Indonesia, India, rest of Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through Plantations and Palm Oil Mills; and Palm, Laurics and Others segments.

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Golden Agri-Resources Ltd, an investment holding company, operates as an integrated palm oil plantation company in China, Indonesia, India, rest of Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through Plantations and Palm Oil Mills; and Palm, Laurics and Others segments. It offers snacks and instant noodles; edible oils, such as sunflower, rice bran, mustard, groundnut, and palm olein; margarines, shortenings, sauces, and beverages; and specialty fats, as well as trades in, buys, and sells crude and refined palm olein, palm kernel, sunflower, and soybean oils. The company also provides palm-derived oleochemicals; palm-based bioenergy; shipping and logistics; IT consultancy, IT application design, development and maintenance, and facilities for data center resources and other IT outsourcing; maintenance services for palm oil processing units; records and document management services; and construction services. In addition, it is involved in sugar storage and distribution business; seed production; treasury management; business and management consultancy activities; commercial and industrial real estate management and property investment; operation of bulking stations, export, import, and administration of transportation services; general wholesale trade; ship management; training; toll crushing of oilseeds and toll processing of biscuit shortening; sale of food products; forestry, carbon storage, and absorption services; port and storage facilities activities; and refinery operations. Further, the company engages in the building management; office administration; food and nutrition and animal nutrition; marine terminal facilities operation; aerial manuring; palm oil and stearin trading; and marine cargo ownership and operation businesses. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is based in Singapore.

Stock analysis

Golden Agri-Resources (GARPY) currently trades at $23.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $66.27, implying the stock looks roughly 64.4% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $104.20 per share, and 24 of the 26 models we run sit above the $23.58 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $9.40, and 2 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $49.70 (bear) to $82.84 (bull), the price of $23.58 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Golden Agri-Resources reported revenue of $13.0B in FY2025 versus $10.2B in FY2021, a compound +6.2%/yr. Reported net income was $400M in FY2025, compounding −4.3%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $3.0B · P/E ratio 7.5 · P/S ratio 0.23 · EPS (TTM) $3.16 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 3.1% · Return on equity 8.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 181%, GARPY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $49.70 Fair Value $66.27 Bull $82.84
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.39 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $79.59 $146.43 $258.51 77
Growth DCF $78.69 $139.12 $236.44 76
Residual Income $34.37 $36.12 $40.08 76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $79.59 $146.43 $258.51 77
Owner Earnings $40.96 $77.98 $140.04 73
5Y Revenue Exit $59.14 $104.20 $164.59 71
5Y EBITDA Exit $76.77 $140.60 $220.41 73
5Y P/E Exit $52.36 $90.21 $132.71 70
10Y Revenue Exit $63.61 $108.25 $175.28 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $76.90 $134.34 $221.00 66
10Y P/E Exit $61.07 $98.22 $149.15 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $21.46 $100.10 $137.54 64
Lynch FV $26.44 $37.77 $49.11 61
PEG = 1.0 $26.44 $37.77 $49.11 57
EPV $33.80 $40.24 $45.79 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $5.46 $10.88 $16.48 67
DDM Multi-Stage $5.46 $9.40 $11.49 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $49.70 $66.27 $82.84 63
P/S Multiple $40.24 $53.65 $67.06 58
P/B Multiple $40.24 $53.65 $67.06 55
EV/EBIT $72.47 $98.95 $125.42 66
EV/EBITDA $82.52 $112.34 $142.17 67
EV/Revenue $49.73 $74.02 $98.32 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $21.35 $28.61 $42.70 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $78.69 $139.12 $236.44 76
Rev-Margin DCF $59.14 $103.54 $161.06 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income $34.37 $36.12 $40.08 76
ROIC Compounder $33.80 $40.24 $50.09 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $42.04 $60.05 $78.07 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64

Profitability 44
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 57
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 56
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 52
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 89
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 72
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 57
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 67
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 83/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.1% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+19.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15.7% vs 4.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −12.0% a year for the price.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 284 stocks

Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 61 · Above median
Fair Value upside +78.5% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 8.0% · Above median
Return on assets 4.6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 3.0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 1.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 6.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.26× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.5× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.62× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.26× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 4.6× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 3.7× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 46.78× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)32 · sector 21
PAST (return on equity)32 · sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)87 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)67 · sector 44

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Farm Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company ADM $80.38 $38.02 −53%
Muyuan Foods Group 002714 ¥40.48 ¥115.35 +185%
Bunge Global SA BG $108.14 $56.75 −48%
Tyson Foods, Inc TSN $50.98 $37.06 −27%
Wens Foodstuff Group 300498 ¥14.51 ¥12.08 −17%
Mowi ASA MOWI kr 205.60 kr 280.90 +37%
SalMar ASA SALM kr 580.50 kr 171.05 −71%
Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company CPF 21.80 THB 55.71 THB +156%
United Plantations Berhad 2089 32.58 MYR 35.84 MYR +10%
Fujian Wanchen Food Group 300972 ¥155.26 ¥254.63 +64%

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Golden Agri-Resources · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Golden Agri-Resources Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GARPY

Frequently asked questions

Is Golden Agri-Resources (GARPY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $66.27 versus a price of $23.58, about +181% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GARPY?
Our model-based fair value for Golden Agri-Resources is $66.27 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $23.58.
What is the quality score of GARPY?
Golden Agri-Resources has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Golden Agri-Resources (GARPY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $66.27 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $49.70, optimistic scenario $82.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Golden Agri-Resources stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $66.27, about +181% upside versus a price of $23.58 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $49.70, optimistic scenario $82.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Golden Agri-Resources (GARPY)?
Golden Agri-Resources reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $13.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Golden Agri-Resources pay a dividend?
Golden Agri-Resources currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.33% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Golden Agri-Resources (GARPY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Golden Agri-Resources would have to grow free cash flow by -9.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GARPY use?
Our models discount Golden Agri-Resources at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Golden Agri-Resources that is -9.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Golden Agri-Resources (GARPY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Golden Agri-Resources grew +12.9 % a year. The price currently implies -9.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Golden Agri-Resources (GARPY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Golden Agri-Resources (-9.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Golden Agri-Resources (GARPY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 24.69 %: that much free cash flow Golden Agri-Resources produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Golden Agri-Resources (GARPY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Golden Agri-Resources it is $66.27 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $23.58. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Golden Agri-Resources stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GARPY trades below its calculated fair value: price $23.58, fair value $66.27, a gap of about +181% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GARPY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($23.58); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($66.27). For Golden Agri-Resources the two are $42.69 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Golden Agri-Resources worth?
The market values Golden Agri-Resources at about $3.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $23.58; our models calculate a fair value of $66.27 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GARPY?
Our models span a range for Golden Agri-Resources: cautious scenario $49.70, base $66.27, optimistic $82.84 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $23.58). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GARPY?
Golden Agri-Resources trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $66.27 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 46.8, P/B 0.6, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 3.7.
What is the PEG ratio of GARPY?
The PEG ratio of Golden Agri-Resources is 46.78 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Golden Agri-Resources (GARPY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Golden Agri-Resources (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.0%, debt of 0.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GARPY from its 52-week high?
Golden Agri-Resources trades at $23.58, about 11% below its 52-week high of $26.50 and 18% above the low of $20.00 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $66.27 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Golden Agri-Resources?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Muyuan Foods Group, Bunge Global SA, Tyson Foods, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Golden Agri-Resources stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $23.58, calculated fair value $66.27 (+181%), Quality Score 61/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GARPY calculated?
We run Golden Agri-Resources through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $66.27, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Golden Agri-Resources currently trades 64 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Golden Agri-Resources (GARPY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $23.58. Our model-based fair value is $66.27, about +181% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Golden Agri-Resources right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($49.70). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of Golden Agri-Resources

How large is the market capitalisation of Golden Agri-Resources (GARPY)?
The market capitalisation of Golden Agri-Resources is $3.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Golden Agri-Resources (GARPY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Golden Agri-Resources is 0.23 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Golden Agri-Resources (GARPY)?
Earnings per share at Golden Agri-Resources are $3.16 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Golden Agri-Resources (GARPY)?
The dividend yield of Golden Agri-Resources is 3.3% (payout 24.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Golden Agri-Resources (GARPY)?
The net margin of Golden Agri-Resources is 3.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Golden Agri-Resources (GARPY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Golden Agri-Resources is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Golden Agri-Resources (GARPY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Golden Agri-Resources is 8.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Golden Agri-Resources (GARPY)?
The operating margin of Golden Agri-Resources is 1.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Golden Agri-Resources (GARPY)?
Revenue at Golden Agri-Resources is growing +6.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Golden Agri-Resources (GARPY)?
Earnings per share at Golden Agri-Resources are growing −45.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Golden Agri-Resources (GARPY) carry?
The net debt of Golden Agri-Resources is $2.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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