Naturgy Energy Group SA (GASNY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Naturgy Energy Group SA $8.00, price $6.58, upside +21.6%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.37 – $6.93 · fair‑value band $4.84 – $10.63 · the $6.58 price screens below the $8.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Naturgy Energy Group, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the supply, liquefaction, regasification, transport, storage, distribution, and sale of gas. It operates through Distribution Networks and Energy Markets segments.
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Naturgy Energy Group, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the supply, liquefaction, regasification, transport, storage, distribution, and sale of gas. It operates through Distribution Networks and Energy Markets segments. The company is involved in the regulated gas and electricity distribution; management of transport infrastructure; trade and shipping of liquefied natural gas; supply, procurement, and management of other gas infrastructure; and management of gas pipeline. It also manages conventional thermal generation facilities; facilities and generation projects using wind energy, mini hydro, solar and cogeneration, as well as hydroelectric power; photovoltaic generation projects; and renewable electricity generation projects. In addition, the company is involved in renewable gas projects, such as biomethane and green hydrogen; supply of gas, electricity and services to end customers. It operates in Spain, Australia, the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Panama, the rest of Latin America, and the rest of Europe. The company was formerly known as Gas Natural SDG, S.A. and changed its name to Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. in June 2018. Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. was incorporated in 1843 and is based in Madrid, Spain.
Stock analysis
Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR (GASNY) currently trades at $6.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.00, implying the stock looks roughly 17.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $8.41 per share, and 12 of the 24 models we run sit above the $6.58 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.52, and 12 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $4.84 (bear) to $10.63 (bull), the price of $6.58 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR reported revenue of €18.7B in FY2025 versus €22.1B in FY2021, a compound −4.2%/yr. Reported net income was €1.9B in FY2025, compounding +12.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $31.9B · P/E ratio 12.8 · P/S ratio 1.33 · EPS (TTM) $0.5100 · Dividend yield 8.1% · Net margin 10.4% · Return on equity 22.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 22%, GASNY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $4.84Fair Value $8.00Bull $10.63
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3856 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+16.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.2% vs 3.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 18%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.2% a year for the price and −1.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (37 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Compare Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 104 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside+11.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)22.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)10.7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)17.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−6.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)8.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.38× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GASNY
Frequently asked questions
Is Naturgy Energy Group SA (GASNY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.00 versus a price of $6.58, about +22% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GASNY?
Our model-based fair value for Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR is $8.00 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $6.58.
What is the quality score of GASNY?
Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Naturgy Energy Group SA (GASNY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.00 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.84, optimistic scenario $10.63. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.00, about +22% upside versus a price of $6.58 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $4.84, optimistic scenario $10.63. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Naturgy Energy Group SA (GASNY)?
Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €19.1B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR pay a dividend?
Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.11% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Naturgy Energy Group SA (GASNY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +2.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.0 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GASNY use?
Our models discount Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.45, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR that is +2.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Naturgy Energy Group SA (GASNY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR grew +4.0 % a year. The price currently implies +2.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Naturgy Energy Group SA (GASNY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR (+2.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Naturgy Energy Group SA (GASNY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.05 %: that much free cash flow Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Naturgy Energy Group SA (GASNY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR it is $8.00 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $6.58. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, GASNY trades below its calculated fair value: price $6.58, fair value $8.00, a gap of about +22% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GASNY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($6.58); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.00). For Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR the two are $1.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR worth?
The market values Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR at about $31.9B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $6.58; our models calculate a fair value of $8.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GASNY?
Our models span a range for Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR: cautious scenario $4.84, base $8.00, optimistic $10.63 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $6.58). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GASNY?
Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.8 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $8.00 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 6.3, P/B 3.0, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 7.2.
What is the PEG ratio of GASNY?
The PEG ratio of Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR is 6.32 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Naturgy Energy Group SA (GASNY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 22.0%, debt of 1.38 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GASNY from its 52-week high?
Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR trades at $6.58, about 5% below its 52-week high of $6.93 and 18% above the low of $5.55 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Atmos Energy Corporation, Uniper SE, NiSource Inc, The Hong Kong and China Gas Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $6.58, calculated fair value $8.00 (+22%), Quality Score 54/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GASNY calculated?
We run Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $8.00, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR currently trades 18 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Naturgy Energy Group SA (GASNY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $6.58. Our model-based fair value is $8.00, about +22% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR right now?
Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($4.84 to $10.63) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Naturgy Energy Group SA (GASNY) come from?
Earnings per share at Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR grew +3.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.8 %, EBIT margin +3.5 %, tax rate −1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Naturgy Energy Group SA (GASNY)?
The market capitalisation of Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR is $31.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Naturgy Energy Group SA (GASNY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR is 1.33 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Naturgy Energy Group SA (GASNY)?
Earnings per share at Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR are $0.5100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Naturgy Energy Group SA (GASNY)?
The dividend yield of Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR is 8.1% (payout 105%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Naturgy Energy Group SA (GASNY)?
The net margin of Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR is 10.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Naturgy Energy Group SA (GASNY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR is 22.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Naturgy Energy Group SA (GASNY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR is 8.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Naturgy Energy Group SA (GASNY)?
The operating margin of Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR is 17.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Naturgy Energy Group SA (GASNY)?
Revenue at Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR is growing −6.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −18.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Naturgy Energy Group SA (GASNY)?
Earnings per share at Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR are growing +13.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Naturgy Energy Group SA (GASNY) carry?
The net debt of Naturgy Energy Group SA ADR is €12.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026