Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Games Workshop Group PLC stock £177, price £161, upside +10.1%, quality 78 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £49.08 – £219.19 · fair‑value band £120.76 – £224.27 · the £160.80 price screens below the £177.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Games Workshop Group PLC, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, distribution, and sale of fantasy miniature figures and games in the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and internationally.
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It operates in two segments, Core and Licensing. The company offers games under the Warhammer 40,000, Warhammer: The Horus Heresy, Warhammer: The Old World, Warhammer: Age of Sigmar, Necromunda, Blood Bowl, and the Lord of the Rings brand names.
It also publishes short stories, audio dramas, full length novels, and audio books under the Black Library name; and produces motion picture, video, and television programs.
In addition, the company provides merchandise, apparel, video games accessories, display art, and action figures; and design, produces, and sells various books and accessories, as well as plastic and resin kits, and painting guides.
Further, it grants licenses to third parties for the development of video games, PC games, media and other products; and engages in the magazine newsstand and trustee businesses. It offers its products through its retail stores, independent retailers, and web stores.
The company was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Nottingham, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW) currently trades at £160.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £177.10, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.2%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £133.61 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the £160.80 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at £37.34, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £120.76 (bear) to £224.27 (bull), the price of £160.80 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Games Workshop Group PLC reported revenue of £660M in FY2026 versus £415M in FY2022, a compound +12.3%/yr. Reported net income was £206M in FY2026, compounding +12.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap £5.3B Mid · P/E ratio 25.9 · P/S ratio 8.08 · EPS (TTM) £6.22 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 31.2% · Return on equity 66.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 57.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 95 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 13% fair-value upside, at 10%, GAW screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£120.76Fair Value £177.10Bull£224.27
Price £160.80 · Upside +10.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 5 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.6012 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.96/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +18.8% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.9% vs 30.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.42% → 42%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.7% a year for the price and +2.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (83 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: High profitability and cash conversion form the main strength while limited qualitative moat evidence across categories remains the key weakness.
Main risk: Cheaper 3D-printed alternatives and STL files from indie creators on platforms such as MyMiniFactory or Patreon could reduce demand for official Warhammer miniatures and pressure margins.
Bull case: The company could use its vertical integration and IP ownership to introduce official digital applications or premium experiences that complement rather than compete with 3D printing trends.
Bear case: Widespread adoption of low-cost 3D-printed proxies might shift hobbyists away from official kits, paints and rulebooks, eroding core revenue over time.
Games Workshop maintains tight control over its Warhammer intellectual property and company-owned stores while steadily rolling out new models and paints. A recent confidential report from a short-focused research firm has nevertheless raised questions about whether growth could slow after years of strong results. Will the hobby's loyal player base and product pipeline deliver continued expansion, or does the report point to a more challenging period ahead?
Compare Games Workshop Group PLC with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 166 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score78 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)66.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets44.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)31.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)41.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.0% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)25.9× · Pricier than median
P/B15.89× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)8.08× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)24.4× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Games Workshop Group PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GAW
Frequently asked questions
Is Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £177.10 versus a price of £160.80, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of GAW?
Our model-based fair value for Games Workshop Group PLC is £177.10 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £160.80.
What is the quality score of GAW?
Games Workshop Group PLC has a Quality Score of 78/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £177.10 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario £120.76, optimistic scenario £224.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Games Workshop Group PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £177.10, about +10% upside versus a price of £160.80 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario £120.76, optimistic scenario £224.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW)?
Games Workshop Group PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £660M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Games Workshop Group PLC pay a dividend?
Games Workshop Group PLC currently shows a dividend yield of 3.02% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Games Workshop Group PLC would have to grow free cash flow by +13.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.3 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GAW use?
Our models discount Games Workshop Group PLC at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.88, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Games Workshop Group PLC that is +13.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Games Workshop Group PLC grew +12.3 % a year. The price currently implies +13.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Games Workshop Group PLC (+13.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.10 %: that much free cash flow Games Workshop Group PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Games Workshop Group PLC it is £177.10 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of £160.80. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Games Workshop Group PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, GAW trades below its calculated fair value: price £160.80, fair value £177.10, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GAW?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£160.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£177.10). For Games Workshop Group PLC the two are £16.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Games Workshop Group PLC worth?
The market values Games Workshop Group PLC at about £5.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is £160.80; our models calculate a fair value of £177.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GAW?
Our models span a range for Games Workshop Group PLC: cautious scenario £120.76, base £177.10, optimistic £224.27 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price £160.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GAW?
Games Workshop Group PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.9 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £177.10 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 15.9, P/S 8.1, EV/EBITDA 17.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Games Workshop Group PLC (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 66.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 78/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GAW from its 52-week high?
Games Workshop Group PLC trades at £160.80, about 27% below its 52-week high of £219.19 and 7% above the low of £150.28 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £177.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Games Workshop Group PLC?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Pop Mart International Group, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, Life Time Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Games Workshop Group PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price £160.80, calculated fair value £177.10 (+10%), Quality Score 78/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GAW calculated?
We run Games Workshop Group PLC through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £177.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Games Workshop Group PLC currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was £160.80. Our model-based fair value is £177.10, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Games Workshop Group PLC right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (£120.76 to £224.27) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW) come from?
Earnings per share at Games Workshop Group PLC grew +28.5 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +18.0 %, EBIT margin +9.5 %, tax rate −0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Games Workshop Group PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW)?
The market capitalisation of Games Workshop Group PLC is £5.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Games Workshop Group PLC is 8.08 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW)?
Earnings per share at Games Workshop Group PLC are £6.22 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW)?
The dividend yield of Games Workshop Group PLC is 3.0% (payout 78.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW)?
The net margin of Games Workshop Group PLC is 31.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Games Workshop Group PLC is 66.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Games Workshop Group PLC is 57.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW)?
The operating margin of Games Workshop Group PLC is 41.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW)?
Revenue at Games Workshop Group PLC is growing +3.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW)?
Earnings per share at Games Workshop Group PLC are growing −0.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW) hold?
Games Workshop Group PLC holds more cash than debt, £127M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026