Games Workshop Group (GAW) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · GB · Market cap 6.7B GBX
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Share price −8.9% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 44% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 83/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£147.04). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range (£80.56 to £147.04) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £52.51 – £234.47 · fair‑value band £80.56 – £147.04 · the £202.60 price screens above the £113.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Games Workshop Group (GAW) currently trades at £202.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £113.48, implying the stock looks roughly 44.0% overvalued today. We read business quality at 83/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Games Workshop Group generated revenue of £650M at a net margin of 31.8%. Revenue grew 10.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 67.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of £87.4M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £80.56 (bear case) to £147.04 (bull case); at £202.60, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at -44%, GAW screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (£135.52) versus Asset-Based (£5.69). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 88 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Games Workshop Group PLC, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, distribution, and sale of fantasy miniature figures and games in the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Core and Licensing.
Full company description
Games Workshop Group PLC, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, distribution, and sale of fantasy miniature figures and games in the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Core and Licensing. The company offers games under the Warhammer 40,000, Warhammer: The Horus Heresy, Warhammer: The Old World, Warhammer: Age of Sigmar, Necromunda, Blood Bowl, and the Lord of the Rings brand names. It also publishes short stories, audio dramas, full length novels, and audio books under the Black Library name; and produces motion picture, video, and television programs. In addition, the company provides merchandise, apparel, video games accessories, display art, and action figures; and design, produces, and sells various books and accessories, as well as plastic and resin kits, and painting guides. Further, it grants licenses to third parties for the development of video games, PC games, media and other products; and engages in the magazine newsstand and trustee businesses. It offers its products through its retail stores, independent retailers, and web stores. The company was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Nottingham, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Games Workshop Group reported revenue of £618M in FY2025 versus £370M in FY2021, a compound +13.7%/yr. Reported net income was £196M in FY2025, compounding +12.6%/yr from FY2021.
GAW screens 44% overvalued. Compare with ANTA Sports Products Limited →
Peer Group
Leisure · 194 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANTA Sports Products Limited 2020 | HK$74.15 | HK$119.29 | +61% |
| Pop Mart International Group 9992 | HK$160.20 | HK$227.30 | +42% |
| Amer Sports, Inc AS | $36.44 | $16.16 | -56% |
| Hasbro, Inc HAS | $81.55 | $83.38 | +2% |
| Life Time Group LTH | $42.15 | $16.15 | -62% |
| Acushnet Holdings GOLF | $114.78 | $37.79 | -67% |
| Li Ning Company 2331 | HK$14.80 | HK$29.26 | +98% |
| Ninebot Limited 689009 | ¥37.82 | ¥39.17 | +4% |
| Asmodee Group ASMDEEB | kr 145.70 | kr 41.90 | -71% |
| Smartfit Escola de Ginástica e Dança S.A SMFT3 | R$20.97 | R$22.90 | +9% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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