The Greenbrier Companies, Inc (GBX) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $1.5B
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc
GBX · US
Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 24, 2026, revised from $126.68 to $69.67 (−45.0%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +1.9% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 48% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($48.77). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($48.77 to $90.57) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $21.88 – $67.98 · fair‑value band $48.77 – $90.57 · the $47.22 price screens below the $69.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
Analysis
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc (GBX) currently trades at $47.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $69.67, implying the stock looks roughly 47.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, The Greenbrier Companies, Inc generated revenue of $2.9B at a net margin of 5.1%. Revenue declined 22.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.3%. Net debt stands at $1.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $48.77 (bear case) to $90.57 (bull case); at $47.22, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -28% fair-value upside, at 48%, GBX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($126.68) versus Dividend Discount ($16.10). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets railroad freight car equipment in North America, Europe, and South America. It operates through Manufacturing, and Leasing & Management Services.
Full company description
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets railroad freight car equipment in North America, Europe, and South America. It operates through Manufacturing, and Leasing & Management Services. The Manufacturing segment offers covered hopper cars, gondolas, open top hoppers, boxcars, center partition cars, tank cars, sustainable conversions, intermodal railcars, and railcar equipment; reconditioning of wheels and axles, new axle machining and finishing, and downsizing; operates a railcar maintenance network; and reconditions and manufactures railcar cushioning units, couplers, yokes, side frames, bolsters, and various other parts. The Leasing & Management Services segment offers operating leases and per diem leases for a fleet of approximately 17,000 railcars; and management services comprising railcar maintenance management, railcar accounting services, fleet management and logistics, administration, and railcar re-marketing. This segment provides management services for railroads, shippers, carriers, institutional investors, and other leasing and transportation companies. It serves railroads, leasing companies, financial institutions, shippers, carriers, and transportation companies. The company was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Lake Oswego, Oregon.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc reported revenue of $3.2B in FY2025 versus $1.7B in FY2021, a compound +16.6%/yr. Reported net income was $204M in FY2025, compounding +58.3%/yr from FY2021.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- How Greenbrier Companies (GBX) Is Growing Rail Earnings Through Margin Expansion, Record Lease Utilization, and a $2 Billion Backlog
- Freight car builder Greenbrier sees weaker Q2 earnings
- The Greenbrier's Stock Rises 15.3% Since Fiscal Q3 Earnings Release
- Greenbrier (GBX) Stock Looks Reasonable On Earnings Yet Mixed On Fair Value
Peer Group
Railroads · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $301.75 | $144.60 | -52% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $49.41 | $12.85 | -74% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $92.91 | $35.00 | -62% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNI | $128.22 | $92.63 | -28% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $327.47 | $117.90 | -64% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $259.71 | $144.80 | -44% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.82 | ¥5.65 | +17% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.65 | ¥9.53 | +69% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.85 | ¥6.24 | +29% |
| Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 | 167,700 KRW | 125,182 KRW | -25% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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