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Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Greenbrier Companies Inc stock $34.75, price $41.51, that is 16.3% below the price, quality 49 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Industrials US

GC Greenbrier Companies Inc logo Broad data Nov 9, 2026

Greenbrier Companies Inc

GBX · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 16% below what the stock costs today.

Positive coverage
Broad data
Quality 49/100
Mixed Growth (revenue YoY −8.7 %/yr in USD)
Thin margins · 4.1% net margin (TTM)
Moderate debt
3.1% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Insiders sold $192,600 (6M)
Revenue last quarter 32% below a year ago.
Fair value $34.75 · Overvalued
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (5/14)
Narrow moat 31/100 · thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$67.49 $21.72 Fair Value $34.75 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $21.72 – $67.49 · fair‑value band $34.32 – $35.70 · the $41.51 price screens above the $34.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.

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Company profile

The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets railroad freight car equipment in North America, Europe, and South America. It operates through Manufacturing, and Leasing & Management Services.

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The Manufacturing segment offers covered hopper cars, gondolas, open top hoppers, boxcars, center partition cars, tank cars, sustainable conversions, intermodal railcars, and railcar equipment; reconditioning of wheels and axles, new axle machining and finishing, and downsizing; operates a railcar maintenance network; and reconditions and manufactures railcar cushioning units, couplers, yokes, side frames, bolsters, and various other parts.

The Leasing & Management Services segment offers operating leases and per diem leases for a fleet of approximately 17,000 railcars; and management services comprising railcar maintenance management, railcar accounting services, fleet management and logistics, administration, and railcar re-marketing.

This segment provides management services for railroads, shippers, carriers, institutional investors, and other leasing and transportation companies. It serves railroads, leasing companies, financial institutions, shippers, carriers, and transportation companies.

The company was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Lake Oswego, Oregon.

Stock analysis

Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX) currently trades at $41.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $34.75, 16% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $60.85 per share, and 8 of the 14 models we run sit above the $41.51 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.82, and 6 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $34.32 (bear) to $35.70 (bull), the price of $41.51 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.

Greenbrier Companies Inc reported revenue of $3.2B in FY2025 versus $1.7B in FY2021, a compound +16.6%/yr. Reported net income was $79.0M in FY2026, compounding +13.9%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap $1.3B Small · P/E ratio 16.7 · P/S ratio 0.50 · EPS (TTM) $2.49 · Dividend yield 3.1% · Net margin 4.1% · Return on equity 6.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.5% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −16%, GBX screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $34.32 Fair Value $34.75 Bull $35.70
Price $41.51 · Downside -16.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.19 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $35.35 $34.75 $35.70 76
Gordon GGM $9.62 $16.13 $20.96 68
DDM Multi-Stage $9.62 $15.04 $17.35 67
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $17.36 $59.07 $79.23 64
Lynch FV $13.55 $19.35 $25.16 61
PEG = 1.0 $13.55 $19.35 $25.16 57
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $9.62 $16.13 $20.96 68
DDM Multi-Stage $9.62 $15.04 $17.35 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $40.22 $53.62 $67.03 63
P/S Multiple $32.56 $43.41 $54.26 58
P/B Multiple $40.32 $53.76 $67.19 55
EV/EBIT $66.78 $86.50 $106.23 66
EV/EBITDA $93.91 $122.68 $151.46 67
EV/Revenue $49.83 $67.94 $86.04 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.50 $6.82 $8.53 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $35.35 $34.75 $35.70 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $34.32 $49.03 $63.74 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 41
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 42
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 5
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 51
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 75
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 44
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 26
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 27
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 96
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $192,600 and none bought.

  • SaleWilliam GlennSVP & President, Europe4,000 shares at $48.15$192,600Jul 13, 2026
  • SaleWilliam J. KruegerSVP, COO, The Americas6,000 shares at $50.00$300,000Jan 30, 2026

Plus 19 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
≈ +12.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +9.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 12.3% / −7.9%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 10%
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2021 (starting value 1.60 per share, median 5.00 in 2016 to 2019). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.

GBX screens overvalued: fair value 16% below the price. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 108 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 49 · Below median
Fair Value upside −16.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 6.3% · Below median
Return on assets 2.8% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 4.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 4.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −31.6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 3.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.11× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 16.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.84× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 0.50× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 10.0× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.58× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)12 · sector 18
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 20
PAST (return on equity)25 · sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)44 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)63 · sector 42

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
CRRC Corporation 601766 ¥6.55 ¥9.21 +41% vs GBX
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 ¥5.36 ¥5.84 +9% vs GBX
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB $283.59 $290.92 +3% vs GBX
Daqin Railway Co 601006 ¥4.88 ¥4.66 −5% vs GBX
Canadian National Railway Company CNI $124.06 $100.13 −19% vs GBX
Union Pacific Corporation UNP $290.16 $153.89 −47% vs GBX
Getlink SE GET €20.22 €10.47 −48% vs GBX
Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC $319.94 $132.55 −59% vs GBX
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP $92.17 $38.04 −59% vs GBX
CSX Corporation CSX $49.12 $12.92 −74% vs GBX

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Greenbrier Companies Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GBX

Frequently asked questions

Is Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $34.75 versus a price of $41.51, about 16% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GBX?
Our model-based fair value for Greenbrier Companies Inc is $34.75 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $41.51.
What is the quality score of GBX?
Greenbrier Companies Inc has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $34.75 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $34.32, optimistic scenario $35.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Greenbrier Companies Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $34.75, about 16% lower versus a price of $41.51 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $34.32, optimistic scenario $35.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX)?
Greenbrier Companies Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Greenbrier Companies Inc pay a dividend?
Greenbrier Companies Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 3.13% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Greenbrier Companies Inc pays a dividend of $1.30 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.1%. The last ex-dividend date was Jul 16, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2014. The payout ratio is 52.2% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Greenbrier Companies Inc it is $34.75 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $41.51. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Greenbrier Companies Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, GBX trades above its calculated fair value: price $41.51, fair value $34.75, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GBX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($41.51); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($34.75). For Greenbrier Companies Inc the two are $6.76 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Greenbrier Companies Inc worth?
The market values Greenbrier Companies Inc at about $1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $41.51; our models calculate a fair value of $34.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GBX?
Our models span a range for Greenbrier Companies Inc: cautious scenario $34.32, base $34.75, optimistic $35.70 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $41.51). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GBX?
Greenbrier Companies Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.7 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $34.75 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, 9 of the years ex one-offs: 10.4. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 0.8, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 10.0.
What is the PEG ratio of GBX?
The PEG ratio of Greenbrier Companies Inc is 0.58 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Greenbrier Companies Inc (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 6.3%, debt of 1.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GBX from its 52-week high?
Greenbrier Companies Inc trades at $41.51, about 29% below its 52-week high of $58.06 and 11% above the low of $37.48 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $34.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Greenbrier Companies Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Greenbrier Companies Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $41.51, calculated fair value $34.75 (−16%), Quality Score 49/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GBX calculated?
We run Greenbrier Companies Inc through 14 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $34.75 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Greenbrier Companies Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $41.51. Our model-based fair value is $34.75, about 16% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Greenbrier Companies Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($35.70). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (49/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The models converge in a tight band ($34.32 to $35.70), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Where does the earnings growth of Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX) come from?
Earnings per share at Greenbrier Companies Inc grew −1.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.3 %, EBIT margin −5.3 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Greenbrier Companies Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX)?
The market capitalisation of Greenbrier Companies Inc is $1.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Greenbrier Companies Inc is 0.50 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX)?
Earnings per share at Greenbrier Companies Inc are $2.49 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX)?
The dividend yield of Greenbrier Companies Inc is 3.1% (payout 52.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX)?
The net margin of Greenbrier Companies Inc is 4.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Greenbrier Companies Inc is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Greenbrier Companies Inc is 5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX)?
The operating margin of Greenbrier Companies Inc is 4.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX)?
Revenue at Greenbrier Companies Inc is growing −31.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX)?
Earnings per share at Greenbrier Companies Inc are growing −67.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX) generate?
The free cash flow of Greenbrier Companies Inc is −$240M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX) hold?
Greenbrier Companies Inc holds more cash than debt, $235M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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