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Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Greenbrier Companies Inc $50.00, price $43.04, upside +16.2%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Industrials · US · ISIN US3936571013

GC Greenbrier Companies Inc logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

Greenbrier Companies Inc

GBX · US

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value $50.00 · Undervalued (+16%)
!Quality 50/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY −8.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.1% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
·2.97% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
!Narrow moat 32/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$67.98 $21.88 Fair Value $50.00 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $21.88 – $67.98 · fair‑value band $42.61 – $77.37 · the $43.04 price screens below the $50.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets railroad freight car equipment in North America, Europe, and South America. It operates through Manufacturing, and Leasing & Management Services.

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The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets railroad freight car equipment in North America, Europe, and South America. It operates through Manufacturing, and Leasing & Management Services. The Manufacturing segment offers covered hopper cars, gondolas, open top hoppers, boxcars, center partition cars, tank cars, sustainable conversions, intermodal railcars, and railcar equipment; reconditioning of wheels and axles, new axle machining and finishing, and downsizing; operates a railcar maintenance network; and reconditions and manufactures railcar cushioning units, couplers, yokes, side frames, bolsters, and various other parts. The Leasing & Management Services segment offers operating leases and per diem leases for a fleet of approximately 17,000 railcars; and management services comprising railcar maintenance management, railcar accounting services, fleet management and logistics, administration, and railcar re-marketing. This segment provides management services for railroads, shippers, carriers, institutional investors, and other leasing and transportation companies. It serves railroads, leasing companies, financial institutions, shippers, carriers, and transportation companies. The company was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Lake Oswego, Oregon.

Stock analysis

Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX) currently trades at $43.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $50.00, implying the stock looks roughly 13.9% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $126.68 per share, and 11 of the 17 models we run sit above the $43.04 price.

Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $5.65, and 6 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $42.61 (bear) to $77.37 (bull), the price of $43.04 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.

Greenbrier Companies Inc reported revenue of $3.2B in FY2025 versus $1.7B in FY2021, a compound +16.6%/yr. Reported net income was $204M in FY2025, compounding +58.3%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $1.5B · P/E ratio 9.2 · P/S ratio 0.58 · EPS (TTM) $4.69 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 6.3% · Return on equity 9.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at 16%, GBX screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $42.61 Fair Value $50.00 Bull $77.37
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.41 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings n/a $5.65 $28.77 73
EPV $17.49 $26.15 $33.37 73
Residual Income $44.53 $52.02 $98.49 73
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings n/a $5.65 $28.77 73
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $44.86 $152.62 $204.70 64
Lynch FV $35.00 $50.00 $65.01 61
PEG = 1.0 $35.00 $50.00 $65.01 57
EPV $17.49 $26.15 $33.37 73
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $9.94 $17.92 $24.67 68
DDM Multi-Stage $9.94 $16.10 $19.14 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $103.90 $138.54 $173.17 63
P/S Multiple $84.11 $112.15 $140.18 58
P/B Multiple $84.11 $112.15 $140.18 55
EV/EBIT $92.88 $139.19 $185.49 65
EV/EBITDA $98.48 $146.66 $194.83 66
EV/Revenue $53.11 $95.60 $138.10 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $24.77 $33.19 $49.53 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $44.53 $52.02 $98.49 73
ROIC Compounder $17.49 $26.15 $33.37 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $88.67 $126.68 $164.68 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 50/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32

Profitability 41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 27
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 35
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 70
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 46
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 28
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 21
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 93
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+31.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+28.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.34% vs 1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 10%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 114 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 50 · Below median
Fair Value upside +16% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −23% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.14× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.2× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 1.00× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.53× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 8.7× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.58× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)55 · sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 20
PAST (return on equity)37 · sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)43 · sector 88
DIVIDEND (yield)59 · sector 43

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Union Pacific Corporation UNP $274.41 $153.60 −44%
CSX Corporation CSX $46.59 $12.85 −72%
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP $87.99 $37.86 −57%
Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC $314.00 $133.01 −58%
Canadian National Railway Company CNI $119.52 $98.68 −17%
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB $289.71 $289.60 +0%
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 ¥4.71 ¥5.65 +20%
CRRC Corporation 601766 ¥5.98 ¥9.53 +59%
Daqin Railway Co 601006 ¥4.71 ¥5.48 +16%
Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 115,900 KRW 127,490 KRW +10%

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Greenbrier Companies Inc · Fair Value
$50.00 +14%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Greenbrier Companies Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GBX

Frequently asked questions

Is Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $50.00 versus a price of $43.04, about +16% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GBX?
Our model-based fair value for Greenbrier Companies Inc is $50.00 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $43.04.
What is the quality score of GBX?
Greenbrier Companies Inc has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $50.00 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario $42.61, optimistic scenario $77.37. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Greenbrier Companies Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $50.00, about +16% upside versus a price of $43.04 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $42.61, optimistic scenario $77.37. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX)?
Greenbrier Companies Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Greenbrier Companies Inc pay a dividend?
Greenbrier Companies Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.97% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Greenbrier Companies Inc it is $50.00 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $43.04. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Greenbrier Companies Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GBX trades below its calculated fair value: price $43.04, fair value $50.00, a gap of about +16% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GBX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($43.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($50.00). For Greenbrier Companies Inc the two are $6.96 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Greenbrier Companies Inc worth?
The market values Greenbrier Companies Inc at about $1.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $43.04; our models calculate a fair value of $50.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GBX?
Our models span a range for Greenbrier Companies Inc: cautious scenario $42.61, base $50.00, optimistic $77.37 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $43.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GBX?
Greenbrier Companies Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $50.00 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 1.0, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 8.7.
What is the PEG ratio of GBX?
The PEG ratio of Greenbrier Companies Inc is 0.58 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Greenbrier Companies Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 9.3%, debt of 1.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GBX from its 52-week high?
Greenbrier Companies Inc trades at $43.04, about 26% below its 52-week high of $58.47 and 6% above the low of $40.45 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $50.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Greenbrier Companies Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Greenbrier Companies Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $43.04, calculated fair value $50.00 (+16%), Quality Score 50/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GBX calculated?
We run Greenbrier Companies Inc through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $50.00, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Greenbrier Companies Inc currently trades 16 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $43.04. Our model-based fair value is $50.00, about +16% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Greenbrier Companies Inc right now?
A fairly wide model range ($42.61 to $77.37) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX) come from?
Earnings per share at Greenbrier Companies Inc grew −1.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.3 %, EBIT margin −5.3 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Greenbrier Companies Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX)?
The market capitalisation of Greenbrier Companies Inc is $1.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Greenbrier Companies Inc is 0.58 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX)?
Earnings per share at Greenbrier Companies Inc are $4.69 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX)?
The dividend yield of Greenbrier Companies Inc is 3.0% (payout 27.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX)?
The net margin of Greenbrier Companies Inc is 6.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Greenbrier Companies Inc is 9.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Greenbrier Companies Inc is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX)?
The operating margin of Greenbrier Companies Inc is 2.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX)?
Revenue at Greenbrier Companies Inc is growing −22.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX)?
Earnings per share at Greenbrier Companies Inc are growing −69.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX) generate?
The free cash flow of Greenbrier Companies Inc is −$14.7M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX) carry?
The net debt of Greenbrier Companies Inc is $1.5B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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