GCM Securities Ltd (GCMSECU) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of GCM Securities Ltd ₹0.45, price ₹0.65, upside -30.8%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹0.5200 – ₹13.10 · fair‑value band ₹0.3400 – ₹0.5600 · the ₹0.6500 price screens above the ₹0.4500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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GCM Securities Limited engages in stock broking activities in India. The company is involved in investing in shares and other securities; commodities; and other related activities of capital market. GCM Securities Limited was incorporated in 1995 and is based in Mumbai, India.
Stock analysis
GCM Securities Ltd (GCMSECU) currently trades at ₹0.6500, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹0.4500, 30.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 4 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: ₹0.3400 (bear) to ₹0.5600 (bull), the price of ₹0.6500 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
GCM Securities Ltd reported revenue of −₹4.6M in FY2026 versus ₹28.8M in FY2022. Reported net income was −₹11.8M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap ₹123M (≈ $1.3M) · P/S ratio 18.5 · EPS (TTM) ₹−0.0600 · Net margin −151% · Return on equity −9.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.3% · Operating margin 62.4% · Revenue (TTM) ₹6.7M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −31%, GCMSECU screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹0.3400Fair Value ₹0.4500Bull ₹0.5600
Price ₹0.6500 · Upside -30.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.14/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−57.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−45.2%
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−34.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−35.4% (2019) → −294.7% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+26.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +21.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 455 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−30.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−4.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−151.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)62.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth36.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.60× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
P/S (TTM)0.19× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF0.3× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 35
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 75
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 33
HEALTH (low debt)70· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 44
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is GCM Securities Ltd (GCMSECU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹0.4500 versus a price of ₹0.6500, about −31% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GCMSECU?
Our model-based fair value for GCM Securities Ltd is ₹0.4500 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹0.6500.
What is the quality score of GCMSECU?
GCM Securities Ltd has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for GCM Securities Ltd (GCMSECU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹0.4500 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹0.3400, optimistic scenario ₹0.5600. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the GCM Securities Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹0.4500, about −31% upside versus a price of ₹0.6500 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹0.3400, optimistic scenario ₹0.5600. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of GCM Securities Ltd (GCMSECU)?
GCM Securities Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹6.7M (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into GCM Securities Ltd (GCMSECU)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, GCM Securities Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +26.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -45.2 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GCMSECU use?
Our models discount GCM Securities Ltd at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.34, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For GCM Securities Ltd that is +26.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has GCM Securities Ltd (GCMSECU) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at GCM Securities Ltd grew -45.2 % a year. The price currently implies +26.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of GCM Securities Ltd (GCMSECU) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into GCM Securities Ltd (+26.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of GCM Securities Ltd (GCMSECU)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.04 %: that much free cash flow GCM Securities Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of GCM Securities Ltd (GCMSECU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For GCM Securities Ltd it is ₹0.4500 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of ₹0.6500. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is GCM Securities Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, GCMSECU trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹0.6500, fair value ₹0.4500, a gap of about −31% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GCMSECU?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹0.6500); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹0.4500). For GCM Securities Ltd the two are ₹0.2000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is GCM Securities Ltd worth?
The market values GCM Securities Ltd at about ₹123M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is ₹0.6500; our models calculate a fair value of ₹0.4500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GCMSECU?
Our models span a range for GCM Securities Ltd: cautious scenario ₹0.3400, base ₹0.4500, optimistic ₹0.5600 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price ₹0.6500). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of GCM Securities Ltd (GCMSECU)?
Balance-sheet figures for GCM Securities Ltd (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity −9.6%, debt of 0.60 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GCMSECU from its 52-week high?
GCM Securities Ltd trades at ₹0.6500, about 30% below its 52-week high of ₹0.9300 and 25% above the low of ₹0.5200 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹0.4500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to GCM Securities Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is GCM Securities Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price ₹0.6500, calculated fair value ₹0.4500 (−31%), Quality Score 48/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GCMSECU calculated?
We run GCM Securities Ltd through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹0.4500, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. GCM Securities Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of GCM Securities Ltd (GCMSECU)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹0.6500. Our model-based fair value is ₹0.4500, about −31% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with GCM Securities Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹0.5600). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of GCM Securities Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of GCM Securities Ltd (GCMSECU)?
The market capitalisation of GCM Securities Ltd is ₹123M (≈ $1.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of GCM Securities Ltd (GCMSECU)?
The price-to-sales ratio of GCM Securities Ltd is 18.5 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of GCM Securities Ltd (GCMSECU)?
Earnings per share at GCM Securities Ltd are ₹−0.0600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of GCM Securities Ltd (GCMSECU)?
The net margin of GCM Securities Ltd is −151% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of GCM Securities Ltd (GCMSECU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of GCM Securities Ltd is −9.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of GCM Securities Ltd (GCMSECU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of GCM Securities Ltd is −6.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of GCM Securities Ltd (GCMSECU)?
The operating margin of GCM Securities Ltd is 62.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at GCM Securities Ltd (GCMSECU)?
Revenue at GCM Securities Ltd is growing +36.5% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at GCM Securities Ltd (GCMSECU)?
Earnings per share at GCM Securities Ltd are growing +100% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does GCM Securities Ltd (GCMSECU) carry?
The net debt of GCM Securities Ltd is ₹60.0M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 16.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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