Garda Property Group (GDF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Garda Property Group A$0.42, price A$1.02, upside -58.8%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.8053 – A$1.34 · fair‑value band A$0.0840 – A$0.8400 · the A$1.02 price screens above the A$0.4200 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Garda Property Group (Garda) is an industrial real estate investor, developer and active manager with investments predominately in Brisbane. As at 30 June 2024, Garda had 509 US dollars million of investments between industrial properties (83%) and commercial office properties (17%).
Stock analysis
Garda Property Group (GDF) currently trades at A$1.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.4200, implying the stock looks roughly 142.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of A$1.08 per share, and 1 of the 5 models we run sit above the A$1.02 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at A$0.4300, and 4 of the 5 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.0840 (bear) to A$0.8400 (bull), the price of A$1.02 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Garda Property Group reported revenue of A$25.2M in FY2025 versus A$30.7M in FY2021, a compound −4.8%/yr. Reported net income was −A$6.1M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$205M (≈ $143M) · P/E ratio 20.4 · P/S ratio 5.94 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0500 · Dividend yield 7.1% · Net margin −24.2% · Return on equity 3.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −59%, GDF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.0840Fair Value A$0.4200Bull A$0.8400
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.19/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−18.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.8% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
60.4% (2018) → 61.1% (2023)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 547 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−59% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Below median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)31% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)62% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth16% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)7.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.84× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)20.4× · Pricier than median
P/B0.45× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)4.15× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA18.0× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 38
FUTURE (revenue growth)81· sector 12
PAST (return on equity)13· sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)58· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 65
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Garda Property Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GDF
Frequently asked questions
Is Garda Property Group (GDF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.4200 versus a price of A$1.02, about −59% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GDF?
Our model-based fair value for Garda Property Group is A$0.4200 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.02.
What is the quality score of GDF?
Garda Property Group has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Garda Property Group (GDF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.4200 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 5 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0840, optimistic scenario A$0.8400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Garda Property Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.4200, about −59% upside versus a price of A$1.02 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0840, optimistic scenario A$0.8400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Garda Property Group (GDF)?
Garda Property Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$34.6M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Garda Property Group pay a dividend?
Garda Property Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.06% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Garda Property Group (GDF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Garda Property Group it is A$0.4200 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$1.02. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Garda Property Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GDF trades above its calculated fair value: price A$1.02, fair value A$0.4200, a gap of about −59% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GDF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.4200). For Garda Property Group the two are A$0.6000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Garda Property Group worth?
The market values Garda Property Group at about A$205M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$1.02; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.4200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GDF?
Our models span a range for Garda Property Group: cautious scenario A$0.0840, base A$0.4200, optimistic A$0.8400 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$1.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GDF?
Garda Property Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.4 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.4200 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.5, P/S 4.1, EV/EBITDA 18.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Garda Property Group (GDF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Garda Property Group (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 3.4%, debt of 0.84 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GDF from its 52-week high?
Garda Property Group trades at A$1.02, about 13% below its 52-week high of A$1.17 and 4% above the low of A$0.9843 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.4200 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Garda Property Group?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Vingroup Joint Stock Company, CBRE Group, Vonovia SE, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Garda Property Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$1.02, calculated fair value A$0.4200 (−59%), Quality Score 55/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GDF calculated?
We run Garda Property Group through 5 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.4200, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Garda Property Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Garda Property Group (GDF)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$1.02. Our model-based fair value is A$0.4200, about −59% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Garda Property Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.8400). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (A$0.0840 to A$0.8400). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Garda Property Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Garda Property Group (GDF)?
The market capitalisation of Garda Property Group is A$205M (≈ $143M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Garda Property Group (GDF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Garda Property Group is 5.94 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Garda Property Group (GDF)?
Earnings per share at Garda Property Group are A$0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Garda Property Group (GDF)?
The dividend yield of Garda Property Group is 7.1% (payout 144%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Garda Property Group (GDF)?
The net margin of Garda Property Group is −24.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Garda Property Group (GDF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Garda Property Group is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Garda Property Group (GDF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Garda Property Group is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Garda Property Group (GDF)?
The operating margin of Garda Property Group is 61.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Garda Property Group (GDF)?
Revenue at Garda Property Group is growing +16.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Garda Property Group (GDF)?
Earnings per share at Garda Property Group are growing +201% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Garda Property Group (GDF) generate?
The free cash flow of Garda Property Group is −A$5.7M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Garda Property Group (GDF) carry?
The net debt of Garda Property Group is A$246M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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