Garda Property Group (GDF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Garda Property Group stock A$1.20, price A$1.12, upside +7.1%, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 9 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.7879 – A$1.31 · fair‑value band A$0.7500 – A$1.49 · the A$1.12 price screens below the A$1.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
Follow Garda Property in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Garda Property is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Garda Property Group (Garda) is an industrial real estate investor, developer and active manager with investments predominately in Brisbane. As at 30 June 2024, Garda had 509 US dollars million of investments between industrial properties (83%) and commercial office properties (17%).
Stock analysis
Garda Property Group (GDF) currently trades at A$1.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.20, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 6.7%).
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of A$1.23 per share, and 4 of the 9 models we run sit above the A$1.12 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at A$0.7450, and 5 of the 9 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.7500 (bear) to A$1.49 (bull), the price of A$1.12 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Garda Property Group reported revenue of A$30.8M in FY2026 versus A$33.8M in FY2022, a compound −2.2%/yr. Reported net income was A$23.8M in FY2026, compounding −35.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$244M (≈ $168M) Micro · P/E ratio 10.2 · P/S ratio 6.35 · EPS (TTM) A$0.1100 · Dividend yield 7.6% · Net margin 62.0% · Return on equity 7.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 63 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 7%, GDF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$0.7500Fair Value A$1.20BullA$1.49
Price A$1.12 · Upside +7.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0090 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.24/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+22.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.1% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.2%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+0.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−7.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−7.4% vs −2.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.69% → 78%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 15.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 472 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside+7.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.3% · Above median
Return on assets4.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)62.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)62.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)22.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)7.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.49× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Garda Property Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GDF
Frequently asked questions
Is Garda Property Group (GDF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$1.20 versus a price of A$1.12, about +7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of GDF?
Our model-based fair value for Garda Property Group is A$1.20 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.12.
What is the quality score of GDF?
Garda Property Group has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Garda Property Group (GDF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$1.20 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.7500, optimistic scenario A$1.49. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Garda Property Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$1.20, about +7% upside versus a price of A$1.12 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario A$0.7500, optimistic scenario A$1.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Garda Property Group (GDF)?
Garda Property Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$38.4M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Garda Property Group pay a dividend?
Garda Property Group currently shows a dividend yield of 7.59% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Garda Property Group (GDF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Garda Property Group pays a dividend of A$0.085 per share a year, a dividend yield of 7.6%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 29, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2015. The payout ratio is 77.3% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Garda Property Group (GDF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Garda Property Group it is A$1.20 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of A$1.12. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Garda Property Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, GDF trades below its calculated fair value: price A$1.12, fair value A$1.20, a gap of about +7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GDF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$1.20). For Garda Property Group the two are A$0.0800 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Garda Property Group worth?
The market values Garda Property Group at about A$244M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is A$1.12; our models calculate a fair value of A$1.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GDF?
Our models span a range for Garda Property Group: cautious scenario A$0.7500, base A$1.20, optimistic A$1.49 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price A$1.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GDF?
Garda Property Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.2 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$1.20 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 9.4. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 6.3, EV/EBITDA 16.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Garda Property Group (GDF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Garda Property Group (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 7.3%, debt of 0.49 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GDF from its 52-week high?
Garda Property Group trades at A$1.12, about 4% below its 52-week high of A$1.17 and 16% above the low of A$0.9630 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$1.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Garda Property Group?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value CBRE Group, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, KE Holdings, Swire Properties Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Garda Property Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price A$1.12, calculated fair value A$1.20 (+7%), Quality Score 48/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GDF calculated?
We run Garda Property Group through 9 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$1.20 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Garda Property Group currently trades 7% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Garda Property Group (GDF)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$1.12. Our model-based fair value is A$1.20, about +7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Garda Property Group right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (A$0.7500 to A$1.49) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Garda Property Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Garda Property Group (GDF)?
The market capitalisation of Garda Property Group is A$244M (≈ $168M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Garda Property Group (GDF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Garda Property Group is 6.35 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Garda Property Group (GDF)?
Earnings per share at Garda Property Group are A$0.1100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Garda Property Group (GDF)?
The dividend yield of Garda Property Group is 7.6% (payout 77.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Garda Property Group (GDF)?
The net margin of Garda Property Group is 62.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Garda Property Group (GDF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Garda Property Group is 7.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Garda Property Group (GDF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Garda Property Group is 3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Garda Property Group (GDF)?
The operating margin of Garda Property Group is 62.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Garda Property Group (GDF)?
Revenue at Garda Property Group is growing +22.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Garda Property Group (GDF)?
Earnings per share at Garda Property Group are growing +286% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Garda Property Group (GDF) generate?
The free cash flow of Garda Property Group is −A$71.4M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Garda Property Group (GDF) carry?
The net debt of Garda Property Group is A$143M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Garda Property Group in the live analysis
One click puts Garda Property Group on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Thin data
Nov 8, 2026