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Goodfellow Inc (GDL) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · CA · Market cap C$93.4M

GI Goodfellow Inc GDL · TO
PriceC$11.51
Fair ValueC$12.88
Upside+11.9%
Quality52/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 1.1% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
1.33% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (11/13)
Narrow moat 26/100
Evidence: High Range C$10.96 – C$14.12 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 15 valuation models · updated yesterday

Share price +1.3% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 12% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Our model range runs from C$10.96 (bear) to C$14.12 (bull), base C$12.88. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 52/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

C$13.96 C$6.00 Fair Value C$12.88 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range C$6.00 – C$13.96 · fair‑value band C$10.96 – C$14.12 · the C$11.51 price screens below the C$12.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Goodfellow Inc (GDL) currently trades at C$11.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$12.88, implying the stock looks roughly 11.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Goodfellow Inc generated revenue of C$541M at a net margin of 1.2%. Revenue declined 2.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.1%. Net debt stands at C$49.4M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from C$10.96 (bear case) to C$14.12 (bull case); at C$11.51, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -39% fair-value upside, at 12%, GDL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income C$16.66 C$16.01 C$12.43 76
ROIC Compounder C$10.22 C$11.39 C$12.34 72
Gordon GGM C$4.22 C$4.68 C$5.20 70
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings C$14.12 C$17.34 C$22.94 31
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd C$5.85 C$8.71 C$10.33 54
EPV C$10.22 C$11.39 C$12.34 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM C$4.22 C$4.68 C$5.20 70
DDM Multi-Stage C$4.22 C$5.07 C$6.00 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple C$10.96 C$14.62 C$18.27 63
P/S Multiple C$10.96 C$14.62 C$18.27 58
P/B Multiple C$10.96 C$14.62 C$18.27 55
EV/EBIT C$17.91 C$23.73 C$29.56 53
EV/EBITDA C$23.67 C$31.41 C$39.15 54
EV/Revenue C$15.59 C$22.07 C$28.56 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) C$12.50 C$16.75 C$25.00 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income C$16.66 C$16.01 C$12.43 76
ROIC Compounder C$10.22 C$11.39 C$12.34 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E C$7.81 C$11.16 C$14.51 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (C$17.34) versus Dividend Discount (C$4.68). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) C$541M
Revenue growth (YoY) -2.2%
Net margin 1.2%
Return on equity 3.1%
Free cash flow −C$424K FY2025
P/E ratio 15.6
More key figures
Operating margin -3.2%
EPS (TTM) C$0.7400
Dividend yield 4.3%
EPS growth (YoY) +30.9%
Net debt C$49.4M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55

Profitability 46
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 8
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 67
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 84
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 93
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 40
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 39
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 85
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Goodfellow Inc. engages in the wholesale distribution of building materials and floor coverings in Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom.

Full company description

Goodfellow Inc. engages in the wholesale distribution of building materials and floor coverings in Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom. The company offers decking products, such as accessories, composite, framing, and wood products for outdoor spaces; flooring products, including ceramic, engineered, hardwood, laminate, stone product composite, sub-floor and accessories, and vinyl and WPC flooring products; and insulation and soundproofing products. It also provides lumber products, including cedar, douglas fir, engineered wood, goodlam, hardwood, hemlock, lumber, mining, pine, and treated wood and plywood; panel products comprising construction plywood, door core, hardwood plywood, medium density fiberboard and HDF, melamine, and oriented strand board; and roofing shingles and other roofing products. In addition, the company offers siding, consisting of accessories, engineered wood siding, pressure treated wood siding, and real wood; ceiling, hardware, and solid surface products; and wall concept, comprising wood planks and decorative planks. Further, it is involved in the remanufacturing, distribution, and brokerage of lumber and wood products; and provides timber fabrication and transformation such as custom timber manufacturing, custom milling services; wood treatments services; and hardware and steel connection solutions. Additionally, the company offers technical support and value-added services for industrial and manufacturing projects; glulam and heavy timber fabrication services; product sourcing and private label products; loading of trucks and containers, and packaging solutions. It serves commercial and residential sectors, including lumber yard retailers, manufacturers, industrial and infrastructure project partners, and floor covering specialists. The company was formerly known as Goodfellow Lumber Ltd. and changed its name to Goodfellow Inc. in October 1984. Goodfellow Inc. was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Delson, Canada.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Goodfellow Inc reported revenue of C$543M in FY2025 versus C$616M in FY2021, a compound −3.1%/yr. Reported net income was C$7.1M in FY2025, compounding −34.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 33/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
C$543M
Latest YoY
+6.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−4.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.6%
Avg. growth/yr (28Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.3%
Revenue −3.1%/yr
FY21 C$616M
FY22 C$631M
FY23 C$513M
FY24 C$510M
FY25 C$543M
Net income −34.1%/yr
FY21 C$37.8M
FY22 C$32.7M
FY23 C$14.7M
FY24 C$13.4M
FY25 C$7.1M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +4.6 % p.a.
Revenue per share +0.2 pp

of which total revenue +0.2 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp

EBIT margin +3.9 pp
Tax rate +0.1 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.5 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Goodfellow Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GDL

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 49 · sector 14
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 11 · sector 0
HEALTH 100 · sector 92
DIVIDEND 27 · sector 30

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Lumber & Wood Production stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Simpson Manufacturing Co SSD $194.83 $145.26 -25%
West Fraser Timber Co WFG C$97.70 C$33.38 -66%
UFP Industries, Inc UFPI $92.82 $107.07 +15%
Stella-Jones Inc SJ C$75.22 C$92.56 +23%
Boise Cascade Company BCC $84.25 $51.39 -39%
Century Plyboards (India) Limited CENTURYPLY ₹763.85 ₹201.01 -74%
DeHua TB New Decoration Material Co 002043 ¥12.58 ¥14.78 +17%
Canfor Corporation CFP C$15.73 C$4.54 -71%
Interfor Corporation IFP C$14.38 C$6.43 -55%
Kangxin New Materials Co 600076 ¥3.17 ¥0.6700 -79%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Goodfellow Inc (GDL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$12.88 versus a price of C$11.51, about +12% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GDL?
Our model-based fair value for Goodfellow Inc is C$12.88 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is C$11.51.
What is the quality score of GDL?
Goodfellow Inc has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Goodfellow Inc (GDL)?
Goodfellow Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$541M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of GDL?
The net profit margin of Goodfellow Inc is about 1.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Goodfellow Inc pay a dividend?
Goodfellow Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.27% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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