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Goodwin PLC (GDWN) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · GB · Market cap 1.4B GBX

GP Goodwin PLC GDWN · LSE
Price£178.20
Fair Value£67.60
Upside-62.1%
Quality75/100
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Healthy Growth
Solidly profitable · 15.9% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
1.55% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
Wide moat 80/100
Evidence: High Range £50.70 – £84.50 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Share price +30.2% over the past month.

A strong business, but screening 62% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • A high-quality business (quality 75/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£84.50). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

£236.86 £18.39 Fair Value £67.60 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £18.39 – £236.86 · fair‑value band £50.70 – £84.50 · the £178.20 price screens above the £67.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

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Analysis

Goodwin PLC (GDWN) currently trades at £178.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £67.60, implying the stock looks roughly 62.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Goodwin PLC generated revenue of £249M at a net margin of 15.9%. Revenue grew 27.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 35.2%. Net debt stands at £15.5M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from £50.70 (bear case) to £84.50 (bull case); at £178.20, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -62%, GDWN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF £54.36 £80.85 £116.57 80
Residual Income £18.35 £23.77 £58.10 76
Rev-Margin DCF £42.69 £65.98 £94.24 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF £54.48 £83.07 £123.36 38
Owner Earnings £23.48 £35.67 £52.85 31
5Y Revenue Exit £42.69 £65.73 £95.17 39
5Y EBITDA Exit £54.06 £87.82 £127.96 41
5Y P/E Exit £49.16 £78.30 £109.61 38
10Y Revenue Exit £45.84 £67.30 £96.58 36
10Y EBITDA Exit £53.54 £81.61 £120.27 37
10Y P/E Exit £50.64 £75.44 £107.01 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd £21.89 £81.34 £109.92 54
Lynch FV £19.54 £27.91 £36.28 50
PEG = 1.0 £19.54 £27.91 £36.28 46
EPV £30.87 £35.02 £38.48 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM £10.17 £18.32 £25.22 70
DDM Multi-Stage £10.17 £16.74 £19.57 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple £50.70 £67.60 £84.50 63
P/S Multiple £41.05 £54.73 £68.41 58
P/B Multiple £41.05 £54.73 £68.41 55
EV/EBIT £62.44 £83.10 £103.77 53
EV/EBITDA £60.10 £79.99 £99.87 54
EV/Revenue £36.71 £52.26 £67.80 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) £9.05 £12.13 £18.10 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF £54.36 £80.85 £116.57 80
Rev-Margin DCF £42.69 £65.98 £94.24 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income £18.35 £23.77 £58.10 76
ROIC Compounder £33.23 £41.10 £50.19 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E £36.28 £51.83 £67.37 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (£75.44) versus Asset-Based (£12.13). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 249M GBX
Revenue growth (YoY) +27.5%
Net margin 15.9%
Return on equity 35.2%
Free cash flow 41.9M GBX FY2025
P/E ratio 33.8
More key figures
Operating margin 27.4%
EPS (TTM) £5.27
Dividend yield 1.6%
EPS growth (YoY) +133%
Net debt 15.5M GBX FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 75/100

Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65

Profitability 57
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 73
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 83
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 73
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 64
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 44
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 69
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 82
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 87
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Goodwin PLC, together with its subsidiaries, provides mechanical and refractory engineering solutions in the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, the United States, the Pacific Basin, and internationally.

Full company description

Goodwin PLC, together with its subsidiaries, provides mechanical and refractory engineering solutions in the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, the United States, the Pacific Basin, and internationally. The company designs, manufactures, and sells dual plate check valves, axial nozzle check valves and piston controls, and isolation valves for construction projects, including the construction of naval propulsion and hull components, nuclear waste storage components, liquefied natural gas, oil and gas, petrochemical, mining, and water markets; submersible slurry pumps; and radar surveillance systems to defense contractors, civil aviation authorities, and coastal border security agencies. It also provides alloy castings for use in naval defence industry, nuclear decommissioning, and oil and gas industry. In addition, the company designs, manufactures, and sells investment casting powders, injection moulding rubbers, and waxes for jewelry casting, tire mold, and aerospace industries. Further, it produces exfoliated vermiculite that is used in insulation, brake linings, and fire protection products, including technical textiles; manufactures cristobalite and ground silica, as well as various grades of perlite and a range of biodegradable bags for use inside traditional hessian/jute bags for the placement of concrete and other materials in or around rivers; sells consumable refractories to the shell molding casting industry; and designs, patents, and sells fire extinguishers. The company was founded in 1883 and is headquartered in Stoke-On-Trent, the United Kingdom.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Goodwin PLC reported revenue of £220M in FY2025 versus £131M in FY2021, a compound +13.8%/yr. Reported net income was £24.6M in FY2025, compounding +18.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 88/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
£220M
Latest YoY
+14.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+15.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+8.7%
Avg. growth/yr (39Y)
+8.3%
Revenue +13.8%/yr
FY21 £131M
FY22 £144M
FY23 £186M
FY24 £191M
FY25 £220M
Net income +18.4%/yr
FY21 £12.5M
FY22 £13.0M
FY23 £15.9M
FY24 £16.9M
FY25 £24.6M

GDWN screens 62% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Goodwin PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GDWN

Peer Group

Specialty Industrial Machinery · 809 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 75 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −62% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 35% · Top 25%
Return on assets 12% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 16% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 27% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 28% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.6% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.10× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 33.8× · Pricier than median
P/B 13.28× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 7.37× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 43.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 28.9× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 100 · sector 23
PAST 100 · sector 28
HEALTH 95 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 31 · sector 24

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
GE Vernova Inc 1GEV €887.60 €186.93 -79%
1SIE 1SIE €273.20 €91.93 -66%
SMNS SMNS C$31.76 C$22.68 -29%
Eaton Corporation ETN $407.28 $171.92 -58%
Atlas Copco AB ATCOA kr 195.15 kr 112.59 -42%
Sandvik AB SAND kr 384.10 kr 193.01 -50%
Doosan Enerbility Co 034020 76,400 KRW 7,938 KRW -90%
Vestas Wind Systems A/S VWS kr 178.10 kr 124.54 -30%
Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co 002050 ¥43.20 ¥22.68 -48%
NARI Technology Co 600406 ¥22.19 ¥18.71 -16%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Goodwin PLC (GDWN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £67.60 versus a price of £178.20, about −62% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GDWN?
Our model-based fair value for Goodwin PLC is £67.60 (as of Jul 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is £178.20.
What is the quality score of GDWN?
Goodwin PLC has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Goodwin PLC (GDWN)?
Goodwin PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £249M (latest available figure, as of Jul 19, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of GDWN?
The net profit margin of Goodwin PLC is about 15.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 15.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Goodwin PLC pay a dividend?
Goodwin PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.86% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 19, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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