Goodwin PLC (GDWN) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · GB · Market cap 1.4B GBX
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +30.2% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 62% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 75/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£84.50). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £18.39 – £236.86 · fair‑value band £50.70 – £84.50 · the £178.20 price screens above the £67.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Goodwin PLC (GDWN) currently trades at £178.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £67.60, implying the stock looks roughly 62.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Goodwin PLC generated revenue of £249M at a net margin of 15.9%. Revenue grew 27.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 35.2%. Net debt stands at £15.5M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £50.70 (bear case) to £84.50 (bull case); at £178.20, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -62%, GDWN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (£75.44) versus Asset-Based (£12.13). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Goodwin PLC, together with its subsidiaries, provides mechanical and refractory engineering solutions in the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, the United States, the Pacific Basin, and internationally.
Full company description
Goodwin PLC, together with its subsidiaries, provides mechanical and refractory engineering solutions in the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, the United States, the Pacific Basin, and internationally. The company designs, manufactures, and sells dual plate check valves, axial nozzle check valves and piston controls, and isolation valves for construction projects, including the construction of naval propulsion and hull components, nuclear waste storage components, liquefied natural gas, oil and gas, petrochemical, mining, and water markets; submersible slurry pumps; and radar surveillance systems to defense contractors, civil aviation authorities, and coastal border security agencies. It also provides alloy castings for use in naval defence industry, nuclear decommissioning, and oil and gas industry. In addition, the company designs, manufactures, and sells investment casting powders, injection moulding rubbers, and waxes for jewelry casting, tire mold, and aerospace industries. Further, it produces exfoliated vermiculite that is used in insulation, brake linings, and fire protection products, including technical textiles; manufactures cristobalite and ground silica, as well as various grades of perlite and a range of biodegradable bags for use inside traditional hessian/jute bags for the placement of concrete and other materials in or around rivers; sells consumable refractories to the shell molding casting industry; and designs, patents, and sells fire extinguishers. The company was founded in 1883 and is headquartered in Stoke-On-Trent, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Goodwin PLC reported revenue of £220M in FY2025 versus £131M in FY2021, a compound +13.8%/yr. Reported net income was £24.6M in FY2025, compounding +18.4%/yr from FY2021.
GDWN screens 62% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →
Peer Group
Specialty Industrial Machinery · 809 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GE Vernova Inc 1GEV | €887.60 | €186.93 | -79% |
| 1SIE 1SIE | €273.20 | €91.93 | -66% |
| SMNS SMNS | C$31.76 | C$22.68 | -29% |
| Eaton Corporation ETN | $407.28 | $171.92 | -58% |
| Atlas Copco AB ATCOA | kr 195.15 | kr 112.59 | -42% |
| Sandvik AB SAND | kr 384.10 | kr 193.01 | -50% |
| Doosan Enerbility Co 034020 | 76,400 KRW | 7,938 KRW | -90% |
| Vestas Wind Systems A/S VWS | kr 178.10 | kr 124.54 | -30% |
| Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co 002050 | ¥43.20 | ¥22.68 | -48% |
| NARI Technology Co 600406 | ¥22.19 | ¥18.71 | -16% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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