Goodwin PLC (GDWN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Goodwin PLC £135, price £141, upside -4.1%, quality 75 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £21.31 – £274.47 · fair‑value band £101.40 – £169.00 · the £141.00 price screens above the £135.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Goodwin PLC, together with its subsidiaries, provides mechanical and refractory engineering solutions in the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, the United States, the Pacific Basin, and internationally.
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Goodwin PLC, together with its subsidiaries, provides mechanical and refractory engineering solutions in the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, the United States, the Pacific Basin, and internationally. The company designs, manufactures, and sells dual plate check valves, axial nozzle check valves and piston controls, and isolation valves for construction projects, including the construction of naval propulsion and hull components, nuclear waste storage components, liquefied natural gas, oil and gas, petrochemical, mining, and water markets; submersible slurry pumps; and radar surveillance systems to defense contractors, civil aviation authorities, and coastal border security agencies. It also provides alloy castings for use in naval defence industry, nuclear decommissioning, and oil and gas industry. In addition, the company designs, manufactures, and sells investment casting powders, injection moulding rubbers, and waxes for jewelry casting, tire mold, and aerospace industries. Further, it produces exfoliated vermiculite that is used in insulation, brake linings, and fire protection products, including technical textiles; manufactures cristobalite and ground silica, as well as various grades of perlite and a range of biodegradable bags for use inside traditional hessian/jute bags for the placement of concrete and other materials in or around rivers; sells consumable refractories to the shell molding casting industry; and designs, patents, and sells fire extinguishers. The company was founded in 1883 and is headquartered in Stoke-On-Trent, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Goodwin PLC (GDWN) currently trades at £141.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £135.20, implying the stock looks roughly 4.3% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £77.66 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the £141.00 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at £16.74, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £101.40 (bear) to £169.00 (bull), the price of £141.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Goodwin PLC reported revenue of £220M in FY2025 versus £131M in FY2021, a compound +13.8%/yr. Reported net income was £24.6M in FY2025, compounding +18.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.4B GBX · P/E ratio 26.8 · P/S ratio 2.99 · EPS (TTM) £5.27 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 11.2% · Return on equity 35.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at −4%, GDWN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £101.40Fair Value £135.20Bull £169.00
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (£2.47 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.88/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.6% a year
Revenue growth 39 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+24.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+22.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17% vs 5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 17%
2025 sits 58% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 826 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score75 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)35% · Top 25%
Return on assets12% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)27% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth28% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.10× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Goodwin PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GDWN
Frequently asked questions
Is Goodwin PLC (GDWN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £135.20 versus a price of £141.00, about −4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of GDWN?
Our model-based fair value for Goodwin PLC is £135.20 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £141.00.
What is the quality score of GDWN?
Goodwin PLC has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Goodwin PLC (GDWN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £135.20 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario £101.40, optimistic scenario £169.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Goodwin PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £135.20, about −4% upside versus a price of £141.00 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario £101.40, optimistic scenario £169.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Goodwin PLC (GDWN)?
Goodwin PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £249M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Goodwin PLC pay a dividend?
Goodwin PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.99% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Goodwin PLC (GDWN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Goodwin PLC would have to grow free cash flow by +16.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GDWN use?
Our models discount Goodwin PLC at 10.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.66, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Goodwin PLC that is +16.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Goodwin PLC (GDWN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Goodwin PLC grew +8.7 % a year. The price currently implies +16.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Goodwin PLC (GDWN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Goodwin PLC (+16.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Goodwin PLC (GDWN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.96 %: that much free cash flow Goodwin PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Goodwin PLC (GDWN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Goodwin PLC it is £135.20 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of £141.00. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Goodwin PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GDWN trades above its calculated fair value: price £141.00, fair value £135.20, a gap of about −4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GDWN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£141.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£135.20). For Goodwin PLC the two are £5.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Goodwin PLC worth?
The market values Goodwin PLC at about 1.4B GBX (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is £141.00; our models calculate a fair value of £135.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GDWN?
Our models span a range for Goodwin PLC: cautious scenario £101.40, base £135.20, optimistic £169.00 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price £141.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GDWN?
Goodwin PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £135.20 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 13.0, P/S 7.2, EV/EBITDA 28.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Goodwin PLC (GDWN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Goodwin PLC (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 35.2%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 75/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GDWN from its 52-week high?
Goodwin PLC trades at £141.00, about 49% below its 52-week high of £274.47 and 30% above the low of £108.35 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £135.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Goodwin PLC?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Goodwin PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price £141.00, calculated fair value £135.20 (−4%), Quality Score 75/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GDWN calculated?
We run Goodwin PLC through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £135.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Goodwin PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Goodwin PLC (GDWN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was £141.00. Our model-based fair value is £135.20, about −4% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Goodwin PLC right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Goodwin PLC (GDWN) come from?
Earnings per share at Goodwin PLC grew +2.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.5 %, EBIT margin −0.8 %, tax rate −0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Goodwin PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Goodwin PLC (GDWN)?
The market capitalisation of Goodwin PLC is 1.4B GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Goodwin PLC (GDWN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Goodwin PLC is 2.99 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Goodwin PLC (GDWN)?
Earnings per share at Goodwin PLC are £5.27 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Goodwin PLC (GDWN)?
The dividend yield of Goodwin PLC is 2.0% (payout 53.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Goodwin PLC (GDWN)?
The net margin of Goodwin PLC is 11.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Goodwin PLC (GDWN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Goodwin PLC is 35.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Goodwin PLC (GDWN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Goodwin PLC is 9.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Goodwin PLC (GDWN)?
The operating margin of Goodwin PLC is 27.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Goodwin PLC (GDWN)?
Revenue at Goodwin PLC is growing +27.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Goodwin PLC (GDWN)?
Earnings per share at Goodwin PLC are growing +133% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Goodwin PLC (GDWN) carry?
The net debt of Goodwin PLC is 15.5M GBX (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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