Granite Falls Energy LLC (GFGY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of Granite Falls Energy LLC $6,760, price $4,966, upside +36.1%, quality 80 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $839.48 – $4,966 · fair‑value band $4,482 – $9,569 · the $4,966 price screens below the $6,760 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Granite Falls Energy, LLC, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of ethanol and its co-products in the continental United States. The company offers wet, modified wet and dried distillers' grains, corn oil, and corn syrup. It also operates a natural gas pipeline.
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Granite Falls Energy, LLC, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of ethanol and its co-products in the continental United States. The company offers wet, modified wet and dried distillers' grains, corn oil, and corn syrup. It also operates a natural gas pipeline. The company markets and sells its products through its third-party marketers to the dairy, beef, swine, and poultry industries. In addition, it exports its products. Granite Falls Energy, LLC was founded in 2000 and is based in Granite Falls, Minnesota.
Stock analysis
Granite Falls Energy LLC (GFGY) currently trades at $4,966, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6,760, implying the stock looks roughly 26.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $7,788 per share, and 16 of the 23 models we run sit above the $4,966 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1,618, and 7 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $4,482 (bear) to $9,569 (bull), the price of $4,966 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Granite Falls Energy LLC reported revenue of $310M in FY2021 versus $216M in FY2017, a compound +9.4%/yr. Reported net income was $17.9M in FY2021, compounding +4.2%/yr from FY2017.
Key figures
Market cap $152M · P/E ratio 1.6 · P/S ratio 0.09 · EPS (TTM) $3,040 · Net margin 5.8% · Return on equity 76.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.1% · Operating margin 5.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 68% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −61% fair-value upside, at 36%, GFGY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $4,482Fair Value $6,760Bull $9,569
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.72/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+87.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+5.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6% vs 8%, steady
Profit margin 2016 to 2021 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 6%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.5% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 110 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score80 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+36% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)77% · Top 25%
Return on assets22% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth16% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.37× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Granite Falls Energy LLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GFGY
Frequently asked questions
Is Granite Falls Energy LLC (GFGY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6,760 versus the last price from Sep 18, 2026 of $4,966, about +36% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GFGY?
Our model-based fair value for Granite Falls Energy LLC is $6,760 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 18, 2026): $4,966.
What is the quality score of GFGY?
Granite Falls Energy LLC has a Quality Score of 80/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Granite Falls Energy LLC (GFGY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6,760 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4,482, optimistic scenario $9,569. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Granite Falls Energy LLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6,760, about +36% upside versus the last price from Sep 18, 2026 of $4,966 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $4,482, optimistic scenario $9,569. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Granite Falls Energy LLC (GFGY)?
Granite Falls Energy LLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $410M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Granite Falls Energy LLC (GFGY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Granite Falls Energy LLC would have to grow free cash flow by +2.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GFGY use?
Our models discount Granite Falls Energy LLC at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Granite Falls Energy LLC that is +2.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Granite Falls Energy LLC (GFGY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Granite Falls Energy LLC grew +7.5 % a year. The price currently implies +2.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Granite Falls Energy LLC (GFGY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Granite Falls Energy LLC (+2.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Granite Falls Energy LLC (GFGY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.27 %: that much free cash flow Granite Falls Energy LLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Granite Falls Energy LLC (GFGY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Granite Falls Energy LLC it is $6,760 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $4,966. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Granite Falls Energy LLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GFGY trades below its calculated fair value: price $4,966, fair value $6,760, a gap of about +36% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GFGY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4,966); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6,760). For Granite Falls Energy LLC the two are $1,794 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Granite Falls Energy LLC worth?
The market values Granite Falls Energy LLC at about $152M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $4,966; our models calculate a fair value of $6,760 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GFGY?
Our models span a range for Granite Falls Energy LLC: cautious scenario $4,482, base $6,760, optimistic $9,569 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $4,966). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GFGY?
Granite Falls Energy LLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 1.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $6,760 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.1, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 2.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Granite Falls Energy LLC (GFGY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Granite Falls Energy LLC (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 76.5%, debt of 0.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 80/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GFGY from its 52-week high?
Granite Falls Energy LLC trades at $4,966, at its 52-week high of $4,966 and 68% above the low of $2,950 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6,760 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Granite Falls Energy LLC?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Granite Falls Energy LLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $4,966, calculated fair value $6,760 (+36%), Quality Score 80/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GFGY calculated?
We run Granite Falls Energy LLC through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6,760, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Granite Falls Energy LLC currently trades 36 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Granite Falls Energy LLC (GFGY)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 18, 2026 and stands at $4,966. Our model-based fair value is $6,760, about +36% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Granite Falls Energy LLC right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (80/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. A fairly wide model range ($4,482 to $9,569) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Granite Falls Energy LLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Granite Falls Energy LLC (GFGY)?
The market capitalisation of Granite Falls Energy LLC is $152M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Granite Falls Energy LLC (GFGY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Granite Falls Energy LLC is 0.09 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Granite Falls Energy LLC (GFGY)?
Earnings per share at Granite Falls Energy LLC are $3,040 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 1.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Granite Falls Energy LLC (GFGY)?
The net margin of Granite Falls Energy LLC is 5.8% (fiscal year 2021). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Granite Falls Energy LLC (GFGY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Granite Falls Energy LLC is 76.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Granite Falls Energy LLC (GFGY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Granite Falls Energy LLC is −0.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Granite Falls Energy LLC (GFGY)?
The operating margin of Granite Falls Energy LLC is 5.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Granite Falls Energy LLC (GFGY)?
Revenue at Granite Falls Energy LLC is growing +16.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Granite Falls Energy LLC (GFGY)?
Earnings per share at Granite Falls Energy LLC are growing +213% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Granite Falls Energy LLC (GFGY) carry?
The net debt of Granite Falls Energy LLC is $19.1M (fiscal year 2021, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026