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GFP.TO (GFP) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of GFP.TO C$1.23, price C$1.71, upside -27.9%, quality 31 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · CA · ISIN CA39526A1003

GT GFP.TO logo Thin data Sep 27, 2026

GFP.TO

GFP · TO

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value C$1.23 · Overvalued (−27.9%)
!Quality 31/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −12.1 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -41.2% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/11)
!Narrow moat 3/100
!Insider activity 45/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

C$61.89 C$1.60 Fair Value C$1.23 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range C$1.60 – C$61.89 · fair‑value band C$0.9180 – C$1.84 · the C$1.71 price screens above the C$1.23 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

GreenFirst Forest Products Inc. engages in manufacturing, marketing, distribution, and sale of lumber products in Canada and the United States.

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GreenFirst Forest Products Inc. engages in manufacturing, marketing, distribution, and sale of lumber products in Canada and the United States. The company provides spruce, pine, and fir lumber products; wood chips; and other by-products, such as chips and residual fiber for use in residential and multi-family homes, light industrial and commercial facilities, and the home repair and remodel markets. It serves retail chains, contractor supply yards, distributors, wholesalers, and industrial customers. The company was formerly known as Itasca Capital Ltd. and changed its name to GreenFirst Forest Products Inc. in January 2021. GreenFirst Forest Products Inc. is headquartered in North Bay, Canada.

Stock analysis

GFP.TO (GFP) currently trades at C$1.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$1.23, implying the stock looks roughly 38.7% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: C$0.9180 (bear) to C$1.84 (bull), the price of C$1.71 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

GFP.TO reported revenue of C$304M in FY2025 versus C$190M in FY2021, a compound +12.4%/yr. Reported net income was −C$98.8M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap C$42.1M (≈ $29.7M) · P/S ratio 0.14 · EPS (TTM) C$−5.28 · Net margin −32.6% · Return on equity −128% · Return on assets (EBIT) −11.2% · Operating margin −31.4% · Revenue (TTM) C$292M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −28%, GFP screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear C$0.9180 Fair Value C$1.23 Bull C$1.84
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) C$1.31 C$1.75 C$2.62 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) C$1.31 C$1.75 C$2.62 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 31/100

Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 16

Profitability 21
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 34
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 1
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 30
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 85
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 33
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 11
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 5
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 50
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.6% (2022) → −27.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

GFP screens 39% overvalued. Compare with Simpson Manufacturing Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lumber & Wood Production · 73 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −27.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −28.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −41.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −31.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −15.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.43× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Lumber & Wood Production median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.49× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.10× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 6.24× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 4
HEALTH (low debt)79 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 36

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Lumber & Wood Production stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Simpson Manufacturing Co SSD $176.55 $194.21 +10%
UFP Industries, Inc UFPI $79.49 $103.76 +31%
Stella-Jones Inc SJ C$68.65 C$115.40 +68%
Boise Cascade Company BCC $77.14 $52.27 −32%
Century Plyboards (India) Limited CENTURYPLY ₹694.45 ₹201.01 −71%
DeHua TB New Decoration Material Co 002043 ¥11.40 ¥15.06 +32%
Canfor Corporation CFP C$15.81 C$4.54 −71%
Interfor Corporation IFP C$14.47 C$6.43 −56%
Kangxin New Materials Co 600076 ¥2.09 ¥0.5400 −74%
Greenply Industries Limited GREENPLY ₹287.25 ₹100.71 −65%

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GFP.TO · Fair Value
C$1.23 −39%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "GFP.TO Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GFP

Frequently asked questions

Is GFP.TO (GFP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$1.23 versus a price of C$1.71, about −28% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GFP?
Our model-based fair value for GFP.TO is C$1.23 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$1.71.
What is the quality score of GFP?
GFP.TO has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for GFP.TO (GFP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$1.23 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$0.9180, optimistic scenario C$1.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the GFP.TO stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$1.23, about −28% upside versus a price of C$1.71 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$0.9180, optimistic scenario C$1.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of GFP.TO (GFP)?
GFP.TO reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$292M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of GFP.TO (GFP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For GFP.TO it is C$1.23 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of C$1.71. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is GFP.TO stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, GFP trades above its calculated fair value: price C$1.71, fair value C$1.23, a gap of about −28% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GFP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$1.71); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$1.23). For GFP.TO the two are C$0.4770 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is GFP.TO worth?
The market values GFP.TO at about C$42.1M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is C$1.71; our models calculate a fair value of C$1.23 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GFP?
Our models span a range for GFP.TO: cautious scenario C$0.9180, base C$1.23, optimistic C$1.84 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price C$1.71). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of GFP?
The PEG ratio of GFP.TO is 6.24 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of GFP.TO (GFP)?
Balance-sheet figures for GFP.TO (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −128.4%, debt of 0.43 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GFP from its 52-week high?
GFP.TO trades at C$1.71, about 37% below its 52-week high of C$2.73 and 7% above the low of C$1.60 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$1.23 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to GFP.TO?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Simpson Manufacturing Co, UFP Industries, Inc, Stella-Jones Inc, Boise Cascade Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is GFP.TO stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price C$1.71, calculated fair value C$1.23 (−28%), Quality Score 31/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GFP calculated?
We run GFP.TO through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$1.23, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. GFP.TO itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of GFP.TO (GFP)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was C$1.71. Our model-based fair value is C$1.23, about −28% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with GFP.TO right now?
Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (C$0.9180 to C$1.84) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of GFP.TO

How large is the market capitalisation of GFP.TO (GFP)?
The market capitalisation of GFP.TO is C$42.1M (≈ $29.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of GFP.TO (GFP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of GFP.TO is 0.14 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of GFP.TO (GFP)?
Earnings per share at GFP.TO are C$−5.28. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of GFP.TO (GFP)?
The net margin of GFP.TO is −32.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of GFP.TO (GFP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of GFP.TO is −128% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of GFP.TO (GFP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of GFP.TO is −11.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of GFP.TO (GFP)?
The operating margin of GFP.TO is −31.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at GFP.TO (GFP)?
Revenue at GFP.TO is growing −15.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at GFP.TO (GFP)?
Earnings per share at GFP.TO are growing −68.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does GFP.TO (GFP) generate?
The free cash flow of GFP.TO is −C$40.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does GFP.TO (GFP) carry?
The net debt of GFP.TO is C$31.6M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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