GreenFirst Forest Products Inc (GFP) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CA · Market cap C$42.1M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +9.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 38% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$1.84). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (C$0.9180 to C$1.84) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$1.60 – C$81.68 · fair‑value band C$0.9180 – C$1.84 · the C$2.00 price screens above the C$1.23 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
GreenFirst Forest Products Inc (GFP) currently trades at C$2.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$1.23, implying the stock looks roughly 38.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, GreenFirst Forest Products Inc generated revenue of C$292M at a net margin of -41.2%. Revenue declined 15.6% year over year. Net debt stands at C$31.6M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$0.9180 (bear case) to C$1.84 (bull case); at C$2.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -39% fair-value upside, at -38%, GFP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
GreenFirst Forest Products Inc. engages in manufacturing, marketing, distribution, and sale of lumber products in Canada and the United States.
Full company description
GreenFirst Forest Products Inc. engages in manufacturing, marketing, distribution, and sale of lumber products in Canada and the United States. The company provides spruce, pine, and fir lumber products; wood chips; and other by-products, such as chips and residual fiber for use in residential and multi-family homes, light industrial and commercial facilities, and the home repair and remodel markets. It serves retail chains, contractor supply yards, distributors, wholesalers, and industrial customers. The company was formerly known as Itasca Capital Ltd. and changed its name to GreenFirst Forest Products Inc. in January 2021. GreenFirst Forest Products Inc. is headquartered in North Bay, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
GreenFirst Forest Products Inc reported revenue of C$304M in FY2025 versus C$190M in FY2021, a compound +12.4%/yr. Reported net income was −C$98.8M in FY2025.
GFP screens 38% overvalued. Compare with Simpson Manufacturing Co →
Peer Group
Lumber & Wood Production · 79 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Lumber & Wood Production median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Lumber & Wood Production stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simpson Manufacturing Co SSD | $194.83 | $145.26 | -25% |
| West Fraser Timber Co WFG | C$97.70 | C$33.38 | -66% |
| UFP Industries, Inc UFPI | $92.82 | $107.07 | +15% |
| Stella-Jones Inc SJ | C$75.22 | C$92.56 | +23% |
| Boise Cascade Company BCC | $84.25 | $51.39 | -39% |
| Century Plyboards (India) Limited CENTURYPLY | ₹763.85 | ₹201.01 | -74% |
| DeHua TB New Decoration Material Co 002043 | ¥12.58 | ¥14.78 | +17% |
| Canfor Corporation CFP | C$15.73 | C$4.54 | -71% |
| Interfor Corporation IFP | C$14.38 | C$6.43 | -55% |
| Kangxin New Materials Co 600076 | ¥3.17 | ¥0.6700 | -79% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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