Global Industrial Co (GIC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Global Industrial Co $28.88, price $41.70, upside -30.7%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $19.98 – $43.00 · fair‑value band $20.96 – $36.46 · the $41.70 price screens above the $28.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Global Industrial Company, through its subsidiaries, operates as an industrial distributor of various industrial and maintenance, repair, and operation (MRO) products in the United States and Canada.
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Global Industrial Company, through its subsidiaries, operates as an industrial distributor of various industrial and maintenance, repair, and operation (MRO) products in the United States and Canada. It offers storage and shelving products, safety and security products, carts and trucks, HVAC and fans, furniture and decor, material handling products, janitorial and facility maintenance products, workbenches and shop desks, tools and instruments, plumbing and pumps, office and school supplies, packaging and shipping products, lighting and electrical products, foodservice and retail products, medical and laboratory products, motors and power transmission products, building supplies, machining products, fasteners and hardware, vehicle maintenance products, and raw materials. The company distributes its industrial and MRO products under the Global, GlobalIndustrial.com, Nexel, Paramount, Interion, and Absocold brands. The company serves for-profit and not-for-profit businesses; state, local, and private educational organizations; and government entities, including federal, state, and local municipalities through relationship marketers, e-commerce sites, and catalogs. The company was formerly known as Systemax Inc and changed its name to Global Industrial Company in June 2021. Global Industrial Company was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Port Washington, New York.
Stock analysis
Global Industrial Co (GIC) currently trades at $41.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $28.88, implying the stock looks roughly 44.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $34.92 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the $41.70 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.48, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $20.96 (bear) to $36.46 (bull), the price of $41.70 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Global Industrial Co reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was $72.1M in FY2025, compounding −8.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.6B · P/E ratio 22.1 · P/S ratio 1.15 · EPS (TTM) $1.89 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 5.2% · Return on equity 24.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 19.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 59% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −31%, GIC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $20.96Fair Value $28.88Bull $36.46
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.6072 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.71/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.9% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 7%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 9.3%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Industrial Distribution · 110 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−31% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)24% · Top 25%
Return on assets11% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.5% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Industrial Distribution median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)22.1× · Pricier than median
P/B5.11× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.14× · Pricier than median
P/FCF21.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA14.2× · Pricier than median
PEG1.09× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 34
FUTURE (revenue growth)46· sector 18
PAST (return on equity)97· sector 35
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)51· sector 39
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Global Industrial Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GIC
Frequently asked questions
Is Global Industrial Co (GIC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $28.88 versus a price of $41.70, about −31% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GIC?
Our model-based fair value for Global Industrial Co is $28.88 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $41.70.
What is the quality score of GIC?
Global Industrial Co has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Global Industrial Co (GIC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $28.88 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $20.96, optimistic scenario $36.46. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Global Industrial Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $28.88, about −31% upside versus a price of $41.70 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $20.96, optimistic scenario $36.46. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Global Industrial Co (GIC)?
Global Industrial Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Global Industrial Co pay a dividend?
Global Industrial Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.54% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Global Industrial Co (GIC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Global Industrial Co would have to grow free cash flow by +12.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.0 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GIC use?
Our models discount Global Industrial Co at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.77, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Global Industrial Co that is +12.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Global Industrial Co (GIC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Global Industrial Co grew +6.0 % a year. The price currently implies +12.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Global Industrial Co (GIC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Global Industrial Co (+12.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Global Industrial Co (GIC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.66 %: that much free cash flow Global Industrial Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Global Industrial Co (GIC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Global Industrial Co it is $28.88 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $41.70. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Global Industrial Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GIC trades above its calculated fair value: price $41.70, fair value $28.88, a gap of about −31% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GIC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($41.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($28.88). For Global Industrial Co the two are $12.82 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Global Industrial Co worth?
The market values Global Industrial Co at about $1.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $41.70; our models calculate a fair value of $28.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GIC?
Our models span a range for Global Industrial Co: cautious scenario $20.96, base $28.88, optimistic $36.46 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $41.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GIC?
Global Industrial Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.1 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $28.88 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 5.1, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 14.2.
What is the PEG ratio of GIC?
The PEG ratio of Global Industrial Co is 1.09 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Global Industrial Co (GIC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Global Industrial Co (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 24.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GIC from its 52-week high?
Global Industrial Co trades at $41.70, at its 52-week high of $41.85 and 59% above the low of $26.16 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $28.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Global Industrial Co?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value W.W. Grainger, Inc, Fastenal Company, Ferguson Enterprises Inc, WESCO International, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Global Industrial Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $41.70, calculated fair value $28.88 (−31%), Quality Score 67/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GIC calculated?
We run Global Industrial Co through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $28.88, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Global Industrial Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Global Industrial Co (GIC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $41.70. Our model-based fair value is $28.88, about −31% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Global Industrial Co right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($36.46). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Global Industrial Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Global Industrial Co (GIC)?
The market capitalisation of Global Industrial Co is $1.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Global Industrial Co (GIC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Global Industrial Co is 1.15 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Global Industrial Co (GIC)?
Earnings per share at Global Industrial Co are $1.89 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Global Industrial Co (GIC)?
The dividend yield of Global Industrial Co is 2.5% (payout 56.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Global Industrial Co (GIC)?
The net margin of Global Industrial Co is 5.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Global Industrial Co (GIC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Global Industrial Co is 24.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Global Industrial Co (GIC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Global Industrial Co is 19.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Global Industrial Co (GIC)?
The operating margin of Global Industrial Co is 5.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Global Industrial Co (GIC)?
Revenue at Global Industrial Co is growing +9.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Global Industrial Co (GIC)?
Earnings per share at Global Industrial Co are growing +20.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Global Industrial Co (GIC) carry?
The net debt of Global Industrial Co is $36.1M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026