GemLife Communities Group (GLF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of GemLife Communities Group A$1.05, price A$4.53, upside -76.8%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
15‑month range A$3.98 – A$5.34 · fair‑value band A$0.5100 – A$2.69 · the A$4.53 price screens above the A$1.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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GemLife Communities Group operates as a developer, builder, owner, and operator in land lease community sector in Australia. It operates in two segments, Development and Community Operations. The company develops land and sells home on behalf of the landowner.
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GemLife Communities Group operates as a developer, builder, owner, and operator in land lease community sector in Australia. It operates in two segments, Development and Community Operations. The company develops land and sells home on behalf of the landowner. It also operates the community which involves the maintenance of the common areas such as the clubhouse, managers residence, gardening and landscaping. In addition, it provides resort-style communities that are designed to support quality, active, and socially engaged lifestyle for homeowners. Further, the company offers recreational and leisure facilities to support community-oriented living. GemLife Communities Group was incorporated in 2015 and is based in Helensvale, Australia.
Stock analysis
GemLife Communities Group (GLF) currently trades at A$4.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.05, implying the stock looks roughly 331.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$1.80 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the A$4.53 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at A$0.1200, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: A$0.5100 (bear) to A$2.69 (bull), the price of A$4.53 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
GemLife Communities Group reported revenue of A$281M in FY2025 versus A$138M in FY2022, a compound +26.8%/yr. Reported net income was A$48.2M in FY2025, compounding −1.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$1.7B (≈ $1.2B) · P/E ratio 26.6 · P/S ratio 4.57 · EPS (TTM) A$0.1700 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 17.2% · Return on equity 7.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at −77%, GLF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (A$0.1200 to A$3.87). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear A$0.5100Fair Value A$1.05Bull A$2.69
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.1244 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.8%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+48.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+15.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +44.1% a year for the price and +11.7% for the forecasts.
Compare GemLife Communities Group with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 579 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside−77% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Above median
Return on assets5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)17% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)41% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth28% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.15× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)26.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B5.48× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)4.17× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF77.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA14.7× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 53
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)30· sector 11
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)4· sector 56
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "GemLife Communities Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GLF
Frequently asked questions
Is GemLife Communities Group (GLF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$1.05 versus a price of A$4.53, about −77% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GLF?
Our model-based fair value for GemLife Communities Group is A$1.05 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$4.53.
What is the quality score of GLF?
GemLife Communities Group has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for GemLife Communities Group (GLF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$1.05 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.5100, optimistic scenario A$2.69. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the GemLife Communities Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$1.05, about −77% upside versus a price of A$4.53 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.5100, optimistic scenario A$2.69. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of GemLife Communities Group (GLF)?
GemLife Communities Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$282M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does GemLife Communities Group pay a dividend?
GemLife Communities Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.21% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into GemLife Communities Group (GLF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, GemLife Communities Group would have to grow free cash flow by +48.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +26.8 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GLF use?
Our models discount GemLife Communities Group at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For GemLife Communities Group that is +48.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has GemLife Communities Group (GLF) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at GemLife Communities Group grew +26.8 % a year. The price currently implies +48.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of GemLife Communities Group (GLF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into GemLife Communities Group (+48.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of GemLife Communities Group (GLF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.17 %: that much free cash flow GemLife Communities Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of GemLife Communities Group (GLF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For GemLife Communities Group it is A$1.05 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$4.53. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is GemLife Communities Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GLF trades above its calculated fair value: price A$4.53, fair value A$1.05, a gap of about −77% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GLF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$4.53); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$1.05). For GemLife Communities Group the two are A$3.48 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is GemLife Communities Group worth?
The market values GemLife Communities Group at about A$1.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$4.53; our models calculate a fair value of A$1.05 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GLF?
Our models span a range for GemLife Communities Group: cautious scenario A$0.5100, base A$1.05, optimistic A$2.69 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$4.53). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GLF?
GemLife Communities Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$1.05 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.5, P/S 4.2, EV/EBITDA 14.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of GemLife Communities Group (GLF)?
Balance-sheet figures for GemLife Communities Group (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 7.6%, debt of 2.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GLF from its 52-week high?
GemLife Communities Group trades at A$4.53, about 15% below its 52-week high of A$5.34 and 8% above the low of A$4.19 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$1.05 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to GemLife Communities Group?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is GemLife Communities Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$4.53, calculated fair value A$1.05 (−77%), Quality Score 47/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GLF calculated?
We run GemLife Communities Group through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$1.05, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. GemLife Communities Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of GemLife Communities Group (GLF)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$4.53. Our model-based fair value is A$1.05, about −77% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with GemLife Communities Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$2.69). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (A$0.5100 to A$2.69). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of GemLife Communities Group
How large is the market capitalisation of GemLife Communities Group (GLF)?
The market capitalisation of GemLife Communities Group is A$1.7B (≈ $1.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of GemLife Communities Group (GLF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of GemLife Communities Group is 4.57 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of GemLife Communities Group (GLF)?
Earnings per share at GemLife Communities Group are A$0.1700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of GemLife Communities Group (GLF)?
The dividend yield of GemLife Communities Group is 0.2% (payout 5.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of GemLife Communities Group (GLF)?
The net margin of GemLife Communities Group is 17.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of GemLife Communities Group (GLF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of GemLife Communities Group is 7.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of GemLife Communities Group (GLF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of GemLife Communities Group is 6.8% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of GemLife Communities Group (GLF)?
The operating margin of GemLife Communities Group is 40.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at GemLife Communities Group (GLF)?
Revenue at GemLife Communities Group is growing +28.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +26.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at GemLife Communities Group (GLF)?
Earnings per share at GemLife Communities Group are growing −54.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does GemLife Communities Group (GLF) carry?
The net debt of GemLife Communities Group is A$466M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 30.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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