Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A (GLPEY) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $17.1B
Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A
GLPEY · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $9.28 to $9.36 (+0.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +1.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 18% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($5.29 to $14.33). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.82 – $12.53 · fair‑value band $5.29 – $14.33 · the $11.39 price screens above the $9.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A (GLPEY) currently trades at $11.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.36, implying the stock looks roughly 17.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A generated revenue of $19.7B at a net margin of 3.3%. Revenue grew 4.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.1%. Net debt stands at $2.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $5.29 (bear case) to $14.33 (bull case); at $11.39, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -18%, GLPEY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($10.07) versus Asset-Based ($1.98). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. operates as an integrated energy operator in Portugal and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Upstream, Industrial & Midstream, Commercial, and Renewables. The Upstream segment engages in the exploration, development, and production of hydrocarbons primarily in Brazil, Mozambique, and Namibia.
Full company description
Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. operates as an integrated energy operator in Portugal and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Upstream, Industrial & Midstream, Commercial, and Renewables. The Upstream segment engages in the exploration, development, and production of hydrocarbons primarily in Brazil, Mozambique, and Namibia. The Industrial & Midstream segment involved in refining and logistics business in Portugal, as well as is involved in activities related to oil products, carbon dioxide, gas, and power supply and trading activities. This segment also includes co-generation. The Commercial segment is involved in the areas of retail to final business-to-business and business to oil, gas, electric mobility, power and non-fuel products. The Renewables segment is involved in the renewables power generation and new businesses. In addition, the company engages in the reinsurance business. The company was formerly known as Galp " Petróleos e Gás de Portugal, SGPS, S.A. and changed its name to Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. in September 2000. Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Lisbon, Portugal.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A reported revenue of $19.5B in FY2025 versus $16.1B in FY2021, a compound +4.9%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2025, compounding +54.1%/yr from FY2021.
GLPEY screens 18% overvalued. Compare with Saudi Arabian Oil Company →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Galp Energia SGPS SA (GLPEF) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Financial Performance and ...
- Is Galp Energia (GLPEY) Stock Undervalued Right Now?
- A Look At Galp Energia SGPS (ENXTLS:GALP) Valuation After Strong Recent Share Price Momentum
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Integrated · 54 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabian Oil Company 2222 | 26.72 SAR | 20.14 SAR | -25% |
| Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM | $144.51 | $90.37 | -37% |
| Chevron Corporation CHEV | C$22.88 | C$7.97 | -65% |
| PetroChina Company 601857 | ¥10.29 | ¥16.51 | +60% |
| Shell plc SHELL | €38.04 | €46.09 | +21% |
| TotalEnergies SE TTE | C$13.80 | C$7.92 | -43% |
| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A PETR3 | 12,540 ARS | 30,914 ARS | +147% |
| BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, BP | $40.83 | $12.71 | -69% |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 | ¥5.03 | ¥4.46 | -11% |
| Equinor ASA EQNR | $36.19 | $34.53 | -5% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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