GMéxico Transportes, S.A. (GMXTF) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $4.9B
GMéxico Transportes, S.A.
GMXTF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 24, 2026, revised from $2.71 to $2.73 (+0.7%) since Jun 25, 2026.
A solid business, screening 122% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1.60). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($1.60 to $3.48) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.7300 – $2.32 · fair‑value band $1.60 – $3.48 · the $1.23 price screens below the $2.73 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
Analysis
GMéxico Transportes, S.A. (GMXTF) currently trades at $1.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.73, implying the stock looks roughly 122.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, GMéxico Transportes, S.A. generated revenue of $64.6B at a net margin of 13.5%. Revenue declined 0.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.1%. Net debt stands at $43.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.60 (bear case) to $3.48 (bull case); at $1.23, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 68% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -28% fair-value upside, at 122%, GMXTF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($2.64) versus Asset-Based ($0.5145). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
GMéxico Transportes, S.A.B. de C.V. provides logistics and ground transportation solutions in Mexico. The company offers general hauling and intermodal services by railroad, ancillary terminal management, and interterminal hauling services. It also provides freight and multimodal rail services, and auxiliary services.
Full company description
GMéxico Transportes, S.A.B. de C.V. provides logistics and ground transportation solutions in Mexico. The company offers general hauling and intermodal services by railroad, ancillary terminal management, and interterminal hauling services. It also provides freight and multimodal rail services, and auxiliary services. In addition, the company operates a fleet of 822 locomotives and 36,935 rail cars. It serves agricultural, intermodal, minerals, automotive, chemicals and fertilizers, energy, industrial, metallurgical, and cement segments. The company is based in Mexico City, Mexico. GMéxico Transportes, S.A.B. de C.V. operates as a subsidiary of Grupo México, S.A.B. de C.V.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
GMéxico Transportes, S.A. reported revenue of $64.7B in FY2025 versus $51.2B in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was $9.3B in FY2025, compounding +5.4%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Railroads · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $301.75 | $144.60 | -52% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $49.41 | $12.85 | -74% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $92.91 | $35.00 | -62% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNI | $128.22 | $92.63 | -28% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $327.47 | $117.90 | -64% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $259.71 | $144.80 | -44% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.82 | ¥5.65 | +17% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.65 | ¥9.53 | +69% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.85 | ¥6.24 | +29% |
| Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 | 167,700 KRW | 125,182 KRW | -25% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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