Genesis Energy Ltd (GNE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 2, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Genesis Energy Ltd stock A$1.11, price A$1.90, that is 41.4% below the price, quality 31 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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UtilitiesAU · Home New Zealand · ISIN NZGNEE0001S7
GEBroad dataNov 1, 2026
Genesis Energy Ltd
GNE · AU
Very expensive,weak quality
Our calculation puts a fair price 41% below what the stock costs today.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$1.63 – A$2.35 · fair‑value band A$0.7225 – A$1.73 · the A$1.90 price screens above the A$1.11 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Genesis Energy Limited generates, trades in, and sells electricity to residential and business customers in New Zealand. The company generates electricity from thermal, hydro, solar, and wind sources. It operates through Retail, Wholesale, and Kupe segments.
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The Retail segment supplies energy, including electricity, gas, and LPG to end-users, and provides related services.
Its Wholesale segment engages in the supply of electricity to the wholesale electricity market; supply of gas and LPG to wholesale and retail customers; and purchase and sale of derivatives to fix the price of electricity.
The Kupe segment is involved in the exploration, development, and production of gas, oil, and LPG; and supply of gas and LPG to the wholesale segment, as well as light oil.
The company's generation asset portfolio comprises the Huntly power station with a generation capacity of 1200 MW; Tongariro Power Scheme that comprises three power stations with a generation capacity of 361.8MW; Waikaremoana Power Scheme, which includes three power stations with a generation capacity of 138 MW; Tekapo Power Scheme with a generation capacity of 190 MW; and Hau Nui wind farm with 15 wind turbines.
The company was formerly known as Genesis Power Limited and changed its name to Genesis Energy Limited in September 2013. Genesis Energy Limited was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Auckland, New Zealand.
Stock analysis
Genesis Energy Ltd (GNE) currently trades at A$1.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.11, 41.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$1.47 per share, and 3 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$1.90 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at A$0.5100, and 21 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$0.7225 (bear) to A$1.73 (bull), the price of A$1.90 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Genesis Energy Ltd reported revenue of 2.8B NZD in FY2026 versus 2.8B NZD in FY2022, a compound −0.2%/yr. Reported net income was 84.4M NZD in FY2026, compounding −21.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$2.5B (≈ $1.7B) Small · P/E ratio 31.7 · P/S ratio 1.10 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0600 · Dividend yield 7.8% · Net margin 3.0% · Return on equity 2.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −41%, GNE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$0.7225Fair Value A$1.11BullA$1.73
Price A$1.90 · Downside -41.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFA$0.8500A$1.28A$2.0979
Growth DCFA$0.9000A$1.32A$2.0378
Residual IncomeA$1.27A$1.26A$1.2976
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFA$0.8500A$1.28A$2.0979
Owner EarningsA$0.3400A$0.6000A$1.0873
5Y Revenue ExitA$0.8900A$1.49A$2.3871
5Y EBITDA ExitA$1.31A$2.21A$3.4274
5Y P/E ExitA$0.4400A$0.7200A$1.0870
10Y Revenue ExitA$0.8300A$1.31A$1.8467
10Y EBITDA ExitA$1.11A$1.76A$2.4768
10Y P/E ExitA$0.6000A$0.8300A$1.0565
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddA$0.3500A$0.5100A$0.600067
EPVA$0.8000A$0.9900A$1.1674
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMA$0.6600A$0.7500A$0.850069
DDM Multi-StageA$0.6600A$0.8500A$1.0867
Multiples
P/E MultipleA$0.6900A$0.9200A$1.1563
P/S MultipleA$0.6500A$0.8700A$1.0958
P/B MultipleA$2.21A$2.94A$3.6855
EV/EBITA$1.19A$1.79A$2.3965
EV/EBITDAA$1.76A$2.55A$3.3467
EV/RevenueA$0.8500A$1.47A$2.0952
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)A$0.8200A$1.09A$1.6354
Growth DCF
Growth DCFA$0.9000A$1.32A$2.0378
Rev-Margin DCFA$0.8900A$1.52A$2.3171
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeA$1.27A$1.26A$1.2976
ROIC CompounderA$0.8000A$0.9900A$1.1672
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EA$0.4900A$0.7000A$0.910067
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.9% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+7.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.6% vs −5.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 9%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in NZD, New Zealand: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.0% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.4% a year for the price and +1.3% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 74 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score31 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−41.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)2.8% · Below median
Return on assets1.4% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)3.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)8.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−31.7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)7.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.28× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)31.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.04× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)1.10× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow17.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA7.5× · Cheaper than median
PEG1.64× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 22
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 12
PAST (return on equity)11· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)86· sector 71
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 60
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Genesis Energy Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GNE.AU
Frequently asked questions
Is Genesis Energy Ltd (GNE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$1.11 versus a price of A$1.90, about 41% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GNE?
Our model-based fair value for Genesis Energy Ltd is A$1.11 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.90.
What is the quality score of GNE?
Genesis Energy Ltd has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Genesis Energy Ltd (GNE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$1.11 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.7225, optimistic scenario A$1.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Genesis Energy Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$1.11, about 41% lower versus a price of A$1.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.7225, optimistic scenario A$1.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Genesis Energy Ltd (GNE)?
Genesis Energy Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.8B NZD (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Genesis Energy Ltd pay a dividend?
Genesis Energy Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 7.84% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Genesis Energy Ltd (GNE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Genesis Energy Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +11.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.6 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GNE use?
Our models discount Genesis Energy Ltd at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.31, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Genesis Energy Ltd that is +11.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Genesis Energy Ltd (GNE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Genesis Energy Ltd grew -2.6 % a year. The price currently implies +11.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Genesis Energy Ltd (GNE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Genesis Energy Ltd (+11.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Genesis Energy Ltd (GNE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.74 %: that much free cash flow Genesis Energy Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Genesis Energy Ltd (GNE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Genesis Energy Ltd it is A$1.11 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of A$1.90. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Genesis Energy Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, GNE trades above its calculated fair value: price A$1.90, fair value A$1.11, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GNE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$1.11). For Genesis Energy Ltd the two are A$0.7865 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Genesis Energy Ltd worth?
The market values Genesis Energy Ltd at about A$2.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is A$1.90; our models calculate a fair value of A$1.11 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GNE?
Our models span a range for Genesis Energy Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.7225, base A$1.11, optimistic A$1.73 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price A$1.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GNE?
Genesis Energy Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.7 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$1.11 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 1.0, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 7.5.
What is the PEG ratio of GNE?
The PEG ratio of Genesis Energy Ltd is 1.64 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Genesis Energy Ltd (GNE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Genesis Energy Ltd (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 2.8%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GNE from its 52-week high?
Genesis Energy Ltd trades at A$1.90, about 16% below its 52-week high of A$2.25 and 10% above the low of A$1.73 (as of Nov 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$1.11 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Genesis Energy Ltd?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Constellation Energy Corporation, Vistra Corp, Adani Power Limited, CGN Power Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Genesis Energy Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price A$1.90, calculated fair value A$1.11 (−41%), Quality Score 31/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GNE calculated?
We run Genesis Energy Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$1.11, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Genesis Energy Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Genesis Energy Ltd (GNE)?
The closing price on Nov 2, 2026 was A$1.90. Our model-based fair value is A$1.11, about 41% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Genesis Energy Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$1.73). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (A$0.7225 to A$1.73) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Genesis Energy Ltd (GNE) come from?
Earnings per share at Genesis Energy Ltd grew −2.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.5 %, EBIT margin −5.1 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Genesis Energy Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Genesis Energy Ltd (GNE)?
The market capitalisation of Genesis Energy Ltd is A$2.5B (≈ $1.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Genesis Energy Ltd (GNE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Genesis Energy Ltd is 1.10 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Genesis Energy Ltd (GNE)?
Earnings per share at Genesis Energy Ltd are A$0.0600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Genesis Energy Ltd (GNE)?
The dividend yield of Genesis Energy Ltd is 7.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Genesis Energy Ltd (GNE)?
The net margin of Genesis Energy Ltd is 3.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Genesis Energy Ltd (GNE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Genesis Energy Ltd is 2.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Genesis Energy Ltd (GNE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Genesis Energy Ltd is 3.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Genesis Energy Ltd (GNE)?
The operating margin of Genesis Energy Ltd is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Genesis Energy Ltd (GNE)?
Revenue at Genesis Energy Ltd is growing −31.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Genesis Energy Ltd (GNE)?
Earnings per share at Genesis Energy Ltd are growing +32.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Genesis Energy Ltd (GNE) carry?
The net debt of Genesis Energy Ltd is 993M NZD (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 5.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026