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Guangshen Railway Company (GNGYF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Guangshen Railway Company $0.61, price $0.30, upside +103.4%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Guangshen Railway Company
GNGYF · USClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value $0.6100 · Strongly undervalued (+103.4%)
✓Quality 64/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +11.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 35/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.1111 – $0.6319 · fair‑value band $0.4700 – $0.7400 · the $0.2999 price screens below the $0.6100 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Guangshen Railway Company Limited engages in the railway passenger and freight transportation businesses in the People's Republic of China. Its passenger transportation services include the operation of Guangzhou-Shenzhen inter-city express trains, and long-distance trains.
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Guangshen Railway Company Limited engages in the railway passenger and freight transportation businesses in the People's Republic of China. Its passenger transportation services include the operation of Guangzhou-Shenzhen inter-city express trains, and long-distance trains. The company's freight transportation services comprise the transportation of full load cargos, containers, bulky and heavy cargo, dangerous goods, perishable goods, and oversized cargos. It also provides railway network usage; transportation; locomotive traction, railway lines, and power supply; passenger; and maintenance, loading, and unloading services, as well as sells food, beverages, and products on board the trains and in railway stations. In addition, the company is involved in train repairs, technical upgrades, sales of materials, goods and supplies, sewage collection services, on-board catering services, security and fire protection service, station and passenger service, leasing, and other businesses, as well as transportation equipment and facilities maintenance. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is based in Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Guangshen Railway Company (GNGYF) currently trades at $0.2999, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.6100, implying the stock looks roughly 50.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $0.8400 per share, and 22 of the 26 models we run sit above the $0.2999 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.0900, and 4 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $0.4700 (bear) to $0.7400 (bull), the price of $0.2999 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Guangshen Railway Company reported revenue of 28.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 20.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound +9.2%/yr. Reported net income was 1.4B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.1B · P/E ratio 8.2 · P/S ratio 0.41 · EPS (TTM) $0.0300 · Net margin 5.0% · Return on equity 5.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.4% · Operating margin 10.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 103%, GNGYF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.4700
Fair Value $0.6100
Bull $0.7400
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$0.6700
$0.9800
$1.43
80
Growth DCF
$0.6600
$0.9600
$1.35
79
Owner Earnings
$0.6500
$0.9600
$1.40
76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$0.6700
$0.9800
$1.43
80
Owner Earnings
$0.6500
$0.9600
$1.40
76
5Y Revenue Exit
$0.4800
$0.6700
$0.9200
73
5Y EBITDA Exit
$0.7000
$1.11
$1.59
75
5Y P/E Exit
$0.5600
$0.8400
$1.14
71
10Y Revenue Exit
$0.5400
$0.7300
$0.9900
67
10Y EBITDA Exit
$0.6800
$1.01
$1.48
68
10Y P/E Exit
$0.6000
$0.8400
$1.15
64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.2000
$0.7700
$1.04
64
Lynch FV
$0.1900
$0.2700
$0.3500
61
PEG = 1.0
$0.1900
$0.2700
$0.3500
57
EPV
$0.2700
$0.3000
$0.3200
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.0500
$0.0900
$0.1300
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.0500
$0.0900
$0.1000
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$0.4700
$0.6300
$0.7900
63
P/S Multiple
$0.3800
$0.5100
$0.6400
58
P/B Multiple
$0.3800
$0.5100
$0.6400
55
EV/EBIT
$0.4900
$0.6200
$0.7600
66
EV/EBITDA
$0.8000
$1.04
$1.27
67
EV/Revenue
$0.3700
$0.4900
$0.6200
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.3000
$0.4000
$0.6000
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$0.6600
$0.9600
$1.35
79
Rev-Margin DCF
$0.4800
$0.6800
$0.9200
73
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$0.4300
$0.4200
$0.4400
76
ROIC Compounder
$0.2700
$0.3000
$0.3200
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$0.3400
$0.4900
$0.6300
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
64/100
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Profitability
32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
68
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
70
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
93
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
71
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
76
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.2% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13.7% vs 3.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−4% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−19.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −21.0% a year for the price and +0.9% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+2.6%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+2.6%
Projected 2028 (sales)+2.6%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.4%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $272.13 | $153.47 | −44% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $46.51 | $12.91 | −72% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $86.56 | $37.51 | −57% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNI | $121.14 | $98.68 | −19% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $309.00 | $133.05 | −57% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $288.00 | $290.92 | +1% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.69 | ¥5.65 | +20% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.97 | ¥9.21 | +54% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.66 | ¥5.48 | +18% |
| Getlink SE GET | €18.83 | €10.42 | −45% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Guangshen Railway Company (GNGYF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.6100 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.2999, about +103% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GNGYF?
Our model-based fair value for Guangshen Railway Company is $0.6100 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $0.2999.
What is the quality score of GNGYF?
Guangshen Railway Company has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guangshen Railway Company (GNGYF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.6100 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.4700, optimistic scenario $0.7400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guangshen Railway Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.6100, about +103% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.2999 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.4700, optimistic scenario $0.7400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guangshen Railway Company (GNGYF)?
Guangshen Railway Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 29.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Guangshen Railway Company (GNGYF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Guangshen Railway Company would have to grow free cash flow by -19.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GNGYF use?
Our models discount Guangshen Railway Company at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.43, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Guangshen Railway Company that is -19.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Guangshen Railway Company (GNGYF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Guangshen Railway Company grew +11.9 % a year. The price currently implies -19.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Guangshen Railway Company (GNGYF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Guangshen Railway Company (-19.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Guangshen Railway Company (GNGYF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 19.46 %: that much free cash flow Guangshen Railway Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Guangshen Railway Company (GNGYF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guangshen Railway Company it is $0.6100 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.2999. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guangshen Railway Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GNGYF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.2999, fair value $0.6100, a gap of about +103% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GNGYF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.2999); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.6100). For Guangshen Railway Company the two are $0.3101 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guangshen Railway Company worth?
The market values Guangshen Railway Company at about $2.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.2999; our models calculate a fair value of $0.6100 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GNGYF?
Our models span a range for Guangshen Railway Company: cautious scenario $0.4700, base $0.6100, optimistic $0.7400 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.2999). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is GNGYF from its 52-week high?
Guangshen Railway Company trades at $0.2999, about 6% below its 52-week high of $0.3200 and 30% above the low of $0.2300 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.6100 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guangshen Railway Company?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Canadian National Railway Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guangshen Railway Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.2999, calculated fair value $0.6100 (+103%), Quality Score 64/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GNGYF calculated?
We run Guangshen Railway Company through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.6100, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Guangshen Railway Company currently trades 51 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guangshen Railway Company (GNGYF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $0.2999. Our model-based fair value is $0.6100, about +103% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guangshen Railway Company right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.4700). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Guangshen Railway Company (GNGYF) come from?
Earnings per share at Guangshen Railway Company grew +2.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.4 %, EBIT margin −5.8 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Guangshen Railway Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Guangshen Railway Company (GNGYF)?
The market capitalisation of Guangshen Railway Company is $2.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Guangshen Railway Company (GNGYF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Guangshen Railway Company is 8.2 (as of Jun 20, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Guangshen Railway Company (GNGYF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guangshen Railway Company is 0.41 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guangshen Railway Company (GNGYF)?
Earnings per share at Guangshen Railway Company are $0.0300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Guangshen Railway Company (GNGYF)?
The net margin of Guangshen Railway Company is 5.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guangshen Railway Company (GNGYF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guangshen Railway Company is 5.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guangshen Railway Company (GNGYF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guangshen Railway Company is 0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guangshen Railway Company (GNGYF)?
The operating margin of Guangshen Railway Company is 10.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guangshen Railway Company (GNGYF)?
Revenue at Guangshen Railway Company is growing +7.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guangshen Railway Company (GNGYF)?
Earnings per share at Guangshen Railway Company are growing +24.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Guangshen Railway Company (GNGYF) hold?
Guangshen Railway Company holds more cash than debt, 2.8B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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