Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp $1.84, price $11.16, upside -83.5%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $1.84 · Strongly overvalued (−84%)
!Quality 51/100
!Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +8.4 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -8.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers(3/12)
!Narrow moat8/100
✓Insider activity88/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.79 – $45.56 · fair‑value band $1.37 – $4.16 · the $11.16 price screens above the $1.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. operates as a retailer of consumables and fresh products sold through independently operated stores in the United States. It offers perishable department products, including dairy and deli; produce and floral; and meat and seafood.
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Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. operates as a retailer of consumables and fresh products sold through independently operated stores in the United States. It offers perishable department products, including dairy and deli; produce and floral; and meat and seafood. The company also provides non-perishable department products, such as non-perishable grocery, general merchandise, health and beauty care, frozen foods, and beer and wine. It operates stores in California, Washington, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Idaho, Maryland, Nevada, North Carolina, New Jersey, Georgia, Ohio, Alabama, Delaware, Kentucky, and Virginia. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Emeryville, California.
Stock analysis
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO) currently trades at $11.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.84, implying the stock looks roughly 506.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $6.66 per share, and 0 of the 5 models we run sit above the $11.16 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $1.47, and 5 of the 5 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $1.37 (bear) to $4.16 (bull), the price of $11.16 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp reported revenue of $4.7B in FY2025 versus $3.1B in FY2021, a compound +11.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$225M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.1B · P/S ratio 0.19 · EPS (TTM) $−3.89 · Net margin −4.8% · Return on equity −38.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3% · Operating margin −0.1% · Revenue (TTM) $4.7B.
What moves the price
The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 97% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at −84%, GO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.37Fair Value $1.84Bull $4.16
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.49/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.4% (2020) → −4.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+33.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +30.5% a year for the price and +0.8% for the forecasts.
Compare Grocery Outlet Holding Corp with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 82 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−84% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.49× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.14× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.24× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF47.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA7.4× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 41
FUTURE (revenue growth)18· sector 17
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 50
HEALTH (low debt)76· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 54
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.84 versus a price of $11.16, about −84% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GO?
Our model-based fair value for Grocery Outlet Holding Corp is $1.84 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.16.
What is the quality score of GO?
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.84 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 5 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.37, optimistic scenario $4.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Grocery Outlet Holding Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.84, about −84% upside versus a price of $11.16 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.37, optimistic scenario $4.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)?
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Grocery Outlet Holding Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +33.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GO use?
Our models discount Grocery Outlet Holding Corp at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.67, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Grocery Outlet Holding Corp that is +33.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Grocery Outlet Holding Corp grew +8.4 % a year. The price currently implies +33.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (+33.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.18 %: that much free cash flow Grocery Outlet Holding Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Grocery Outlet Holding Corp it is $1.84 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $11.16. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Grocery Outlet Holding Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GO trades above its calculated fair value: price $11.16, fair value $1.84, a gap of about −84% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.16); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.84). For Grocery Outlet Holding Corp the two are $9.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Grocery Outlet Holding Corp worth?
The market values Grocery Outlet Holding Corp at about $1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $11.16; our models calculate a fair value of $1.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GO?
Our models span a range for Grocery Outlet Holding Corp: cautious scenario $1.37, base $1.84, optimistic $4.16 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $11.16). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −38.5%, debt of 0.49 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GO from its 52-week high?
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp trades at $11.16, about 43% below its 52-week high of $19.41 and 97% above the low of $5.66 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Grocery Outlet Holding Corp?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V, The Kroger Co, Woolworths Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Grocery Outlet Holding Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $11.16, calculated fair value $1.84 (−84%), Quality Score 51/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GO calculated?
We run Grocery Outlet Holding Corp through 5 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.84, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Grocery Outlet Holding Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $11.16. Our model-based fair value is $1.84, about −84% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Grocery Outlet Holding Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($1.37 to $4.16). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)?
The market capitalisation of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp is $1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp is 0.19 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)?
Earnings per share at Grocery Outlet Holding Corp are $−3.89. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)?
The net margin of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp is −4.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp is −38.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)?
The operating margin of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp is −0.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)?
Revenue at Grocery Outlet Holding Corp is growing +3.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)?
Earnings per share at Grocery Outlet Holding Corp are growing −50.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO) carry?
The net debt of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp is $1.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 73.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026