Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Graphic Packaging Holding Company stock $13.23, price $11.19, upside +18.2%, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.24 – $28.77 · fair‑value band $10.85 – $18.82 · the $11.19 price screens below the $13.23 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Graphic Packaging Holding Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, production, and sale of consumer packaging products to brands in food, beverage, foodservice, household, and other consumer products in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific.
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It operates through two segments, Americas Paperboard Packaging and International Paperboard Packaging.
The Americas Paperboard Packaging segment includes paperboard packaging sold primarily to consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies serving the food, beverage and consumer product markets and cups, lids and food containers sold primarily to foodservice companies and quick-service restaurants in the Americas.
The International Paperboard Packaging includes paperboard packaging sold primarily to CPG companies serving the food, foodservice, beverage and consumer product markets, including healthcare and beauty, outside of the Americas.
It also designs, manufactures, and installs specialized packaging machines. The company sells its products through sales offices, as well as through broker arrangements with third parties. Graphic Packaging Holding Company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Stock analysis
Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) currently trades at $11.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.23, implying the stock looks roughly 15% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $24.33 per share, and 10 of the 16 models we run sit above the $11.19 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.36, and 6 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $10.85 (bear) to $18.82 (bull), the price of $11.19 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Graphic Packaging Holding Company reported revenue of $8.6B in FY2025 versus $7.2B in FY2021, a compound +4.8%/yr. Reported net income was $444M in FY2025, compounding +21.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.3B Mid · P/E ratio 44.8 · P/S ratio 0.38 · EPS (TTM) $0.2500 · Dividend yield 3.9% · Net margin 0.9% · Return on equity 2.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.0% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at 18%, GPK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$10.85Fair Value $13.23Bull$18.82
Price $11.19 · Upside +18.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $0, on May 20, 2026.
BuyJeffrey StafeilDirector2× since May 7, 2026: 34,139 shares, avg. $5.86$200,058May 20, 2026
BuyRobert HagemannDirector14,000 shares at $11.00$154,000May 8, 2026
BuyLarry M VenturelliDirector17,531 shares at $11.37$199,262Mar 4, 2026
BuyRobbert RietbroekPresident and CEO, Director44,278 shares at $11.32$501,227Mar 4, 2026
Plus 5 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.32/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.6% a year
Revenue growth 34 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+14.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16.9% vs 8.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 10%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (89 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: The business displays moderate characteristics without clear durable advantages, constrained mainly by high leverage and negative free cash flow.
Main risk: Softer demand paired with higher input costs threatens to offset efficiency gains from cost cuts and pressure margins.
Graphic Packaging is intensifying cost cuts and inventory reductions under its new CEO while facing higher input costs and softer demand that prompted lowered full-year guidance. Our models currently see it as undervalued. Will the efficiency drive restore margins faster than volume pressures erode them, or will the two offset each other?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 259 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+18.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)2.3% · Below median
Return on assets3.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)0.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)6.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)0.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.51× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Graphic Packaging Holding Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GPK
Frequently asked questions
Is Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.23 versus a price of $11.19, about +18% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GPK?
Our model-based fair value for Graphic Packaging Holding Company is $13.23 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.19.
What is the quality score of GPK?
Graphic Packaging Holding Company has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.23 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.85, optimistic scenario $18.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Graphic Packaging Holding Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.23, about +18% upside versus a price of $11.19 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $10.85, optimistic scenario $18.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)?
Graphic Packaging Holding Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $8.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Graphic Packaging Holding Company pay a dividend?
Graphic Packaging Holding Company currently shows a dividend yield of 3.93% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Graphic Packaging Holding Company pays a dividend of $0.44 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.9%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 15, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2015. The payout ratio is 176% of earnings. Our assessment: Pays more than it earns. The company pays out more in dividends than it earns, and free cash flow clearly does not cover the dividend either. It may need to be cut unless profits recover.
What is the intrinsic value of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Graphic Packaging Holding Company it is $13.23 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $11.19. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Graphic Packaging Holding Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, GPK trades below its calculated fair value: price $11.19, fair value $13.23, a gap of about +18% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GPK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.19); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.23). For Graphic Packaging Holding Company the two are $2.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Graphic Packaging Holding Company worth?
The market values Graphic Packaging Holding Company at about $3.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $11.19; our models calculate a fair value of $13.23 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GPK?
Our models span a range for Graphic Packaging Holding Company: cautious scenario $10.85, base $13.23, optimistic $18.82 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $11.19). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GPK?
Graphic Packaging Holding Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 44.8 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $13.23 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 9 of the years ex one-offs: 14.3. Other multiples: PEG 3.3, P/B 1.0, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 7.8.
What is the PEG ratio of GPK?
The PEG ratio of Graphic Packaging Holding Company is 3.33 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Graphic Packaging Holding Company (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 2.3%, debt of 1.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GPK from its 52-week high?
Graphic Packaging Holding Company trades at $11.19, about 29% below its 52-week high of $15.82 and 36% above the low of $8.24 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.23 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Graphic Packaging Holding Company?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, Amcor plc, International Paper Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Graphic Packaging Holding Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $11.19, calculated fair value $13.23 (+18%), Quality Score 40/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GPK calculated?
We run Graphic Packaging Holding Company through 16 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $13.23 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Graphic Packaging Holding Company currently trades 15% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $11.19. Our model-based fair value is $13.23, about +18% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Graphic Packaging Holding Company right now?
The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) come from?
Earnings per share at Graphic Packaging Holding Company grew +15.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.6 %, EBIT margin +2.0 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Graphic Packaging Holding Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)?
The market capitalisation of Graphic Packaging Holding Company is $3.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Graphic Packaging Holding Company is 0.38 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)?
Earnings per share at Graphic Packaging Holding Company are $0.2500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 44.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)?
The dividend yield of Graphic Packaging Holding Company is 3.9% (payout 176%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)?
The net margin of Graphic Packaging Holding Company is 0.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Graphic Packaging Holding Company is 2.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Graphic Packaging Holding Company is 9.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)?
The operating margin of Graphic Packaging Holding Company is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)?
Revenue at Graphic Packaging Holding Company is growing +0.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)?
Earnings per share at Graphic Packaging Holding Company are growing −85.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) generate?
The free cash flow of Graphic Packaging Holding Company is −$81.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) carry?
The net debt of Graphic Packaging Holding Company is $5.3B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026