Graphic Packaging Holding (GPK) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $3.0B
Graphic Packaging Holding
GPK · US
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price +19.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 90% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($16.05). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- A fairly wide model range ($16.05 to $31.89) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.82 – $29.11 · fair‑value band $16.05 – $31.89 · the $12.10 price screens below the $22.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Graphic Packaging Holding (GPK) currently trades at $12.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.93, implying the stock looks roughly 89.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Graphic Packaging Holding generated revenue of $8.7B at a net margin of 3.2%. Revenue grew 1.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.6%. Net debt stands at $5.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $16.05 (bear case) to $31.89 (bull case); at $12.10, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at 90%, GPK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($25.51) versus Dividend Discount ($6.10). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Graphic Packaging Holding Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, production, and sale of consumer packaging products to brands in food, beverage, foodservice, household, and other consumer products in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific.
Full company description
Graphic Packaging Holding Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, production, and sale of consumer packaging products to brands in food, beverage, foodservice, household, and other consumer products in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments, Americas Paperboard Packaging and International Paperboard Packaging. The Americas Paperboard Packaging segment includes paperboard packaging sold primarily to consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies serving the food, beverage and consumer product markets and cups, lids and food containers sold primarily to foodservice companies and quick-service restaurants in the Americas. The International Paperboard Packaging includes paperboard packaging sold primarily to CPG companies serving the food, foodservice, beverage and consumer product markets, including healthcare and beauty, outside of the Americas. It also designs, manufactures, and installs specialized packaging machines. The company sells its products through sales offices, as well as through broker arrangements with third parties. Graphic Packaging Holding Company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Graphic Packaging Holding reported revenue of $8.6B in FY2025 versus $7.2B in FY2021, a compound +4.8%/yr. Reported net income was $444M in FY2025, compounding +21.5%/yr from FY2021.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Graphic Packaging Holding Company Declares Quarterly Dividend
- Analysts Estimate Graphic Packaging (GPK) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for
- Graphic Packaging Holding (GPK) Could Be 8% Undervalued As It Enters Recycled Paperboard
- Is Graphic Packaging (GPK) Using PaceSetter Ridgeline To Quietly Redefine Its Packaging Moat?
Peer Group
Packaging & Containers · 273 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stora Enso Oyj STER | kr 101.90 | kr 126.39 | +24% |
| ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co 002831 | ¥29.10 | ¥20.88 | -28% |
| SCG Packaging Public Company SCGP | 29.00 THB | 16.12 THB | -44% |
| AblePrint Technology Co 7734 | 2,850 TWD | 661.69 TWD | -77% |
| PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk, FASW | 5,312 IDR | 1,194 IDR | -78% |
| Taiwan Hon Chuan Enterprise Co 9939 | 132.50 TWD | 127.06 TWD | -4% |
| Time Technoplast Limited TIMETECHNO | ₹206.82 | ₹161.42 | -22% |
| EPL Limited 500135 | ₹222.25 | ₹111.65 | -50% |
| Ton Yi Industrial Corp 9907 | 15.15 TWD | 23.17 TWD | +53% |
| Dongwon Systems Corporation 014820 | 19,330 KRW | 31,473 KRW | +63% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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