Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Graphic Packaging Holding Company $13.45, price $9.66, upside +39.2%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.82 – $29.11 · fair‑value band $10.82 – $29.82 · the $9.66 price screens below the $13.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Graphic Packaging Holding Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, production, and sale of consumer packaging products to brands in food, beverage, foodservice, household, and other consumer products in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific.
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Graphic Packaging Holding Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, production, and sale of consumer packaging products to brands in food, beverage, foodservice, household, and other consumer products in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments, Americas Paperboard Packaging and International Paperboard Packaging. The Americas Paperboard Packaging segment includes paperboard packaging sold primarily to consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies serving the food, beverage and consumer product markets and cups, lids and food containers sold primarily to foodservice companies and quick-service restaurants in the Americas. The International Paperboard Packaging includes paperboard packaging sold primarily to CPG companies serving the food, foodservice, beverage and consumer product markets, including healthcare and beauty, outside of the Americas. It also designs, manufactures, and installs specialized packaging machines. The company sells its products through sales offices, as well as through broker arrangements with third parties. Graphic Packaging Holding Company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Stock analysis
Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) currently trades at $9.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.45, implying the stock looks roughly 28.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $25.51 per share, and 11 of the 16 models we run sit above the $9.66 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $6.10, and 5 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $10.82 (bear) to $29.82 (bull), the price of $9.66 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Graphic Packaging Holding Company reported revenue of $8.6B in FY2025 versus $7.2B in FY2021, a compound +4.8%/yr. Reported net income was $444M in FY2025, compounding +21.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.9B · P/E ratio 10.5 · P/S ratio 0.54 · EPS (TTM) $0.9200 · Dividend yield 4.6% · Net margin 5.2% · Return on equity 8.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at 39%, GPK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $10.82Fair Value $13.45Bull $29.82
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3511 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.32/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.6% a year
Revenue growth 34 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+20.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17% vs 8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 10%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (81 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Below median
Fair Value upside+39% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.51× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Graphic Packaging Holding Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GPK
Frequently asked questions
Is Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.45 versus a price of $9.66, about +39% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GPK?
Our model-based fair value for Graphic Packaging Holding Company is $13.45 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.66.
What is the quality score of GPK?
Graphic Packaging Holding Company has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.45 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.82, optimistic scenario $29.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Graphic Packaging Holding Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.45, about +39% upside versus a price of $9.66 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $10.82, optimistic scenario $29.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)?
Graphic Packaging Holding Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $8.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Graphic Packaging Holding Company pay a dividend?
Graphic Packaging Holding Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.55% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Graphic Packaging Holding Company it is $13.45 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $9.66. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Graphic Packaging Holding Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GPK trades below its calculated fair value: price $9.66, fair value $13.45, a gap of about +39% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GPK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.66); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.45). For Graphic Packaging Holding Company the two are $3.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Graphic Packaging Holding Company worth?
The market values Graphic Packaging Holding Company at about $2.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $9.66; our models calculate a fair value of $13.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GPK?
Our models span a range for Graphic Packaging Holding Company: cautious scenario $10.82, base $13.45, optimistic $29.82 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $9.66). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GPK?
Graphic Packaging Holding Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $13.45 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.3, P/B 0.9, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 6.2.
What is the PEG ratio of GPK?
The PEG ratio of Graphic Packaging Holding Company is 3.33 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Graphic Packaging Holding Company (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.6%, debt of 1.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GPK from its 52-week high?
Graphic Packaging Holding Company trades at $9.66, about 49% below its 52-week high of $19.02 and 10% above the low of $8.82 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Graphic Packaging Holding Company?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, International Paper Company, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Graphic Packaging Holding Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $9.66, calculated fair value $13.45 (+39%), Quality Score 42/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GPK calculated?
We run Graphic Packaging Holding Company through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $13.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Graphic Packaging Holding Company currently trades 39 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $9.66. Our model-based fair value is $13.45, about +39% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Graphic Packaging Holding Company right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (42/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($10.82). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($10.82 to $29.82). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) come from?
Earnings per share at Graphic Packaging Holding Company grew +15.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.6 %, EBIT margin +2.0 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Graphic Packaging Holding Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)?
The market capitalisation of Graphic Packaging Holding Company is $2.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Graphic Packaging Holding Company is 0.54 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)?
Earnings per share at Graphic Packaging Holding Company are $0.9200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)?
The dividend yield of Graphic Packaging Holding Company is 4.6% (payout 47.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)?
The net margin of Graphic Packaging Holding Company is 5.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Graphic Packaging Holding Company is 8.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Graphic Packaging Holding Company is 9.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)?
The operating margin of Graphic Packaging Holding Company is 4.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)?
Revenue at Graphic Packaging Holding Company is growing +1.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)?
Earnings per share at Graphic Packaging Holding Company are growing −48.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) generate?
The free cash flow of Graphic Packaging Holding Company is −$81.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) carry?
The net debt of Graphic Packaging Holding Company is $5.3B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026