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Grupo Carso, S.A. (GPOVF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Grupo Carso, S.A. $4.21, price $7.19, upside -41.4%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Industrials · US · Home Mexico · ISIN MXP461181085

GC Grupo Carso, S.A. logo Some data Sep 29, 2026

Grupo Carso, S.A.

GPOVF · US

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $4.21 · Strongly overvalued (−41.4%)
!Quality 59/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +15.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 39/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$10.81 $0.0002 Fair Value $4.21 Aug 2015 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.0002 – $10.81 · fair‑value band $3.16 – $5.26 · the $7.19 price screens above the $4.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

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Company profile

Grupo Carso, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the commercial, industrial, infrastructure and construction, and energy businesses in Mexico, North America, Central America, South America, the Caribbean, Europe, and internationally.

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Grupo Carso, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the commercial, industrial, infrastructure and construction, and energy businesses in Mexico, North America, Central America, South America, the Caribbean, Europe, and internationally. It operates retail stores and sells various products, including electronics, household items, furniture, clothing, pharmaceuticals, health and beauty products, books, videos, music, toys, sports items, cellphones, technology products, and other merchandise, as well as traditional Mexican food under the Sanborns Cafés, MixUp, iShop, Sears, Dax, and Saks Fifth Avenue brand names. The company also manufactures and markets products and services, such as electrical and coaxial cables, telecommunications equipment, fiber optics, automotive harnesses, and piping specialized industrial components for construction and infrastructure, energy, automotive, telecommunications, and mining industries under the Condumex brand name; and engages in the installation of pipelines, fabrication and services for petrochemical, infrastructure projects, civil construction, and housing development. In addition, it is involved in the exploration, discovery, production, exploitation, refining, transportation, purchasing, and marketing of hydrocarbons and minerals; transportation of natural gas; exploration, production, and exploitation of geothermal energy; and investment, construction, and transmission of gas pipeline. Further, the company engages in the research and development; design of automotive harnesses; development of software; testing of embedded automotive systems; and engineering services. It exports its products. The company was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.

Stock analysis

Grupo Carso, S.A. (GPOVF) currently trades at $7.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.21, 41.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $7.44 per share, and 3 of the 13 models we run sit above the $7.19 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.15, and 10 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $3.16 (bear) to $5.26 (bull), the price of $7.19 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Grupo Carso, S.A. reported revenue of 192B MXN in FY2025 versus 125B MXN in FY2021, a compound +11.4%/yr. Reported net income was 8.0B MXN in FY2025, compounding −8.2%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $17.6B · P/E ratio 31.2 · P/S ratio 1.31 · EPS (TTM) $0.2300 · Net margin 4.2% · Return on equity 6.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.1% · Operating margin 6.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at −41%, GPOVF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $3.16 Fair Value $4.21 Bull $5.26
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1739 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $7.88 $11.50 $16.62 78
Owner Earnings $3.38 $5.13 $7.75 76
Residual Income $2.78 $2.86 $3.06 76
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $3.38 $5.13 $7.75 76
5Y P/E Exit $4.53 $6.33 $8.14 72
10Y P/E Exit $5.62 $7.43 $9.50 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $1.34 $3.89 $5.14 65
Lynch FV $0.8100 $1.15 $1.50 61
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $1.08 $2.25 $3.57 66
DDM Multi-Stage $1.08 $1.74 $2.36 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $3.09 $4.12 $5.15 63
P/B Multiple $2.50 $3.34 $4.17 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.77 $2.38 $3.55 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $7.88 $11.50 $16.62 78
Rev-Margin DCF $5.08 $7.44 $10.14 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income $2.78 $2.86 $3.06 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60

Profitability 34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 22
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 73
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 52
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 81
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 55
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 81
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 84/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.1% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in MXN ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in MXN: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+8.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.5% vs 6.2%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−8.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in MXN, Mexico: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −11.0% a year for the price.

GPOVF screens overvalued: fair value 41% below the price. Compare with 3M Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 360 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 59 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −42.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 6.5% · Above median
Return on assets 4.2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 4.1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 6.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −0.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.15× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 31.2× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 0.7× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grupo Carso, S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GPOVF

Frequently asked questions

Is Grupo Carso, S.A. (GPOVF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.21 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $7.19, about −41% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GPOVF?
Our model-based fair value for Grupo Carso, S.A. is $4.21 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $7.19.
What is the quality score of GPOVF?
Grupo Carso, S.A. has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Grupo Carso, S.A. (GPOVF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.21 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.16, optimistic scenario $5.26. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Grupo Carso, S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.21, about −41% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $7.19 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.16, optimistic scenario $5.26. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Grupo Carso, S.A. (GPOVF)?
Grupo Carso, S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 191B MXN (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Grupo Carso, S.A. (GPOVF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Grupo Carso, S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by -8.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.1 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GPOVF use?
Our models discount Grupo Carso, S.A. at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.51, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Grupo Carso, S.A. that is -8.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Grupo Carso, S.A. (GPOVF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Grupo Carso, S.A. grew +15.1 % a year. The price currently implies -8.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Grupo Carso, S.A. (GPOVF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Grupo Carso, S.A. (-8.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Grupo Carso, S.A. (GPOVF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.47 %: that much free cash flow Grupo Carso, S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Grupo Carso, S.A. (GPOVF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Grupo Carso, S.A. it is $4.21 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $7.19. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Grupo Carso, S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, GPOVF trades above its calculated fair value: price $7.19, fair value $4.21, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GPOVF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.19); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.21). For Grupo Carso, S.A. the two are $2.98 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Grupo Carso, S.A. worth?
The market values Grupo Carso, S.A. at about $17.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $7.19; our models calculate a fair value of $4.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GPOVF?
Our models span a range for Grupo Carso, S.A.: cautious scenario $3.16, base $4.21, optimistic $5.26 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $7.19). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GPOVF?
Grupo Carso, S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.2 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.21 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Grupo Carso, S.A. (GPOVF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Grupo Carso, S.A. (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 6.5%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GPOVF from its 52-week high?
Grupo Carso, S.A. trades at $7.19, about 15% below its 52-week high of $8.47 and 11% above the low of $6.50 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Grupo Carso, S.A.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Swire Pacific Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Grupo Carso, S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $7.19, calculated fair value $4.21 (−41%), Quality Score 59/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GPOVF calculated?
We run Grupo Carso, S.A. through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.21, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Grupo Carso, S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Grupo Carso, S.A. (GPOVF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $7.19. Our model-based fair value is $4.21, about −41% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Grupo Carso, S.A. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.26). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Grupo Carso, S.A. (GPOVF) come from?
Earnings per share at Grupo Carso, S.A. grew +7.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.7 %, EBIT margin −3.3 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Grupo Carso, S.A.

How large is the market capitalisation of Grupo Carso, S.A. (GPOVF)?
The market capitalisation of Grupo Carso, S.A. is $17.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Grupo Carso, S.A. (GPOVF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Grupo Carso, S.A. is 1.31 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Grupo Carso, S.A. (GPOVF)?
Earnings per share at Grupo Carso, S.A. are $0.2300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Grupo Carso, S.A. (GPOVF)?
The net margin of Grupo Carso, S.A. is 4.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Grupo Carso, S.A. (GPOVF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Grupo Carso, S.A. is 6.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Grupo Carso, S.A. (GPOVF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Grupo Carso, S.A. is 9.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Grupo Carso, S.A. (GPOVF)?
The operating margin of Grupo Carso, S.A. is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Grupo Carso, S.A. (GPOVF)?
Revenue at Grupo Carso, S.A. is growing −0.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Grupo Carso, S.A. (GPOVF)?
Earnings per share at Grupo Carso, S.A. are growing −5.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Grupo Carso, S.A. (GPOVF) carry?
The net debt of Grupo Carso, S.A. is 19.1B MXN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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