Greggs plc (GRG) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · GB · Market cap 1.6B GBX
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from £21.84 to £21.12 (−3.3%) since Jul 19, 2026. Share price +16.0% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 16% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (£12.22 to £32.90). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Our model range runs from £12.22 (bear) to £32.90 (bull), base £21.12. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 57/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £13.72 – £29.69 · fair‑value band £12.22 – £32.90 · the £18.22 price screens below the £21.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Greggs plc (GRG) currently trades at £18.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £21.12, implying the stock looks roughly 15.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Greggs plc generated revenue of £2.2B at a net margin of 5.7%. Revenue grew 6.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 20.4%. Net debt stands at £404M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £12.22 (bear case) to £32.90 (bull case); at £18.22, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -51% fair-value upside, at 16%, GRG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (£23.87) versus Asset-Based (£4.11). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Notify me when GRG reaches fair value
Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Greggs plc operates as a food-on-the-go retailer in the United Kingdom. It offers a range of fresh bakery products, sandwiches, and drinks. The company is involved in the property holding, non-trading, and trustee businesses. It sells products to franchise and wholesale partners for sale in their own outlets.
Full company description
Greggs plc operates as a food-on-the-go retailer in the United Kingdom. It offers a range of fresh bakery products, sandwiches, and drinks. The company is involved in the property holding, non-trading, and trustee businesses. It sells products to franchise and wholesale partners for sale in their own outlets. The company operates through its own shops and delivery channels. Greggs plc was founded in 1939 and is headquartered in Newcastle upon Tyne, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Greggs plc reported revenue of £2.2B in FY2025 versus £1.2B in FY2021, a compound +15.0%/yr. Reported net income was £122M in FY2025, compounding +1.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +10.0 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch GRG: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Restaurants · 224 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $108.49 | $35.83 | -67% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $32.00 | $17.92 | -44% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $150.34 | $58.17 | -61% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.50 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $218.90 | $173.68 | -21% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $47.90 | $54.27 | +13% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $214.28 | $104.89 | -51% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $51.02 | $12.80 | -75% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $353.72 | $227.31 | -36% |
Compare Greggs plc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Cyclical stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Greggs plc (GRG) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of GRG?
What is the quality score of GRG?
What is the revenue of Greggs plc (GRG)?
What is the net profit margin of GRG?
Does Greggs plc pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Greggs plc and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.