Griñó Ecologic S.A (GRI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Griñó Ecologic S.A €1.67, price €1.54, upside +8.4%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €0.8800 – €2.22 · fair‑value band €1.09 – €2.09 · the €1.54 price screens below the €1.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Griñó Ecologic, S.A. provides environmental and waste treatment services in Spain. It provides environmental services, including custom, collection, and transportation; high pressure industrial cleaning; and management of urban and industrial waste.
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Griñó Ecologic, S.A. provides environmental and waste treatment services in Spain. It provides environmental services, including custom, collection, and transportation; high pressure industrial cleaning; and management of urban and industrial waste. The company also operates waste treatment centers that offer transfer, sorting and recycling, composting, fuel production, disposal, and hazardous waste and energy recovery services. In addition, it generates energy from waste through energy recovery, diesel recovery, and gas plants. Griñó Ecologic, S.A. was founded in 1933 and is based in Lleida, Spain. Griñó Ecologic, S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Corporació Griñó, S.L.
Stock analysis
Griñó Ecologic S.A (GRI) currently trades at €1.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €1.67, implying the stock looks roughly 7.8% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €1.74 per share, and 14 of the 24 models we run sit above the €1.54 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €0.3500, and 10 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €1.09 (bear) to €2.09 (bull), the price of €1.54 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Griñó Ecologic S.A reported revenue of €74.1M in FY2025 versus €53.3M in FY2021, a compound +8.6%/yr. Reported net income was €2.4M in FY2025, compounding +4.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €46.8M · P/E ratio 17.1 · P/S ratio 0.56 · EPS (TTM) €0.0900 · Net margin 3.3% · Return on equity 7.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.3% · Operating margin 7.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 66% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 8%, GRI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €1.09Fair Value €1.67Bull €2.09
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0658 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.73/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.1% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11% vs 17%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Waste Management · 167 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside+8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Above median
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.22× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper
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Is Griñó Ecologic S.A (GRI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €1.67 versus a price of €1.54, about +8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of GRI?
Our model-based fair value for Griñó Ecologic S.A is €1.67 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €1.54.
What is the quality score of GRI?
Griñó Ecologic S.A has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Griñó Ecologic S.A (GRI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €1.67 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €1.09, optimistic scenario €2.09. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Griñó Ecologic S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €1.67, about +8% upside versus a price of €1.54 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €1.09, optimistic scenario €2.09. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Griñó Ecologic S.A (GRI)?
Griñó Ecologic S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €68.7M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Griñó Ecologic S.A (GRI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Griñó Ecologic S.A would have to grow free cash flow by +8.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GRI use?
Our models discount Griñó Ecologic S.A at 12.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.29, country premium for Spain. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Griñó Ecologic S.A that is +8.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Griñó Ecologic S.A (GRI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Griñó Ecologic S.A grew +8.8 % a year. The price currently implies +8.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Griñó Ecologic S.A (GRI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Griñó Ecologic S.A (+8.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Griñó Ecologic S.A (GRI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.22 %: that much free cash flow Griñó Ecologic S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Griñó Ecologic S.A (GRI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Griñó Ecologic S.A it is €1.67 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of €1.54. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Griñó Ecologic S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GRI trades below its calculated fair value: price €1.54, fair value €1.67, a gap of about +8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GRI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€1.54); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€1.67). For Griñó Ecologic S.A the two are €0.1300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Griñó Ecologic S.A worth?
The market values Griñó Ecologic S.A at about €46.8M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is €1.54; our models calculate a fair value of €1.67 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GRI?
Our models span a range for Griñó Ecologic S.A: cautious scenario €1.09, base €1.67, optimistic €2.09 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price €1.54). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GRI?
Griñó Ecologic S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €1.67 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 5.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Griñó Ecologic S.A (GRI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Griñó Ecologic S.A (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.1%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GRI from its 52-week high?
Griñó Ecologic S.A trades at €1.54, about 9% below its 52-week high of €1.70 and 66% above the low of €0.9300 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €1.67 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Griñó Ecologic S.A?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Waste Management, Inc, Republic Services, Inc, Waste Connections, Inc, Veolia Environnement SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Griñó Ecologic S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price €1.54, calculated fair value €1.67 (+8%), Quality Score 55/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GRI calculated?
We run Griñó Ecologic S.A through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €1.67, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Griñó Ecologic S.A currently trades 8 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Griñó Ecologic S.A (GRI)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €1.54. Our model-based fair value is €1.67, about +8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Griñó Ecologic S.A right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (€1.09 to €2.09) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Griñó Ecologic S.A (GRI) come from?
Earnings per share at Griñó Ecologic S.A grew +19.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.7 %, EBIT margin +1.7 %, tax rate −2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +7.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Griñó Ecologic S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Griñó Ecologic S.A (GRI)?
The market capitalisation of Griñó Ecologic S.A is €46.8M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Griñó Ecologic S.A (GRI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Griñó Ecologic S.A is 0.56 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Griñó Ecologic S.A (GRI)?
Earnings per share at Griñó Ecologic S.A are €0.0900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Griñó Ecologic S.A (GRI)?
The net margin of Griñó Ecologic S.A is 3.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Griñó Ecologic S.A (GRI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Griñó Ecologic S.A is 7.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Griñó Ecologic S.A (GRI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Griñó Ecologic S.A is 6.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Griñó Ecologic S.A (GRI)?
The operating margin of Griñó Ecologic S.A is 7.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Griñó Ecologic S.A (GRI)?
Revenue at Griñó Ecologic S.A is growing +5.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Griñó Ecologic S.A (GRI)?
Earnings per share at Griñó Ecologic S.A are growing −5.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Griñó Ecologic S.A (GRI) carry?
The net debt of Griñó Ecologic S.A is €1.3M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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