Greenvale Energy Ltd (GRV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Greenvale Energy Ltd A$0.02, price A$0.02, upside +9.1%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0210 – A$0.6300 · fair‑value band A$0.0203 – A$0.0296 · the A$0.0220 price screens below the A$0.0240 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Greenvale Energy Ltd, an exploration company, engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties in Australia. It explores for uranium, torbanite, and geothermal assets.
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Greenvale Energy Ltd, an exploration company, engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties in Australia. It explores for uranium, torbanite, and geothermal assets. The company holds interests in the early-stage uranium exploration projects, including the Douglas River Project, Henbury Project, and Elkedra Project in the Northern Territory. It also has interests in the Oasis advanced-exploration project in Queensland, as well as the Alpha Torbanite and Geothermal projects in Queensland. The company was incorporated in 1969 and is based in Brisbane, Australia.
Stock analysis
Greenvale Energy Ltd (GRV) currently trades at A$0.0220, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0240, implying the stock looks roughly 8.3% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of A$0.0500 per share, and 2 of the 5 models we run sit above the A$0.0220 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.0100, and 3 of the 5 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.0203 (bear) to A$0.0296 (bull), the price of A$0.0220 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Greenvale Energy Ltd reported revenue of A$450K in FY2025 versus A$104K in FY2021, a compound +44.3%/yr. Reported net income was −A$1.4M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$24.3M (≈ $17.1M) · Return on equity −19.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −22.4% · Revenue growth (YoY) +179% · Free cash flow A$889K · Net cash A$2.1M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 62% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 9%, GRV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.0203Fair Value A$0.0240Bull A$0.0296
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+99.2%
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1,236,565,000.0% (2020) → −299.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 308 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/8 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−11% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth179% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.09× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Greenvale Energy Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GRV
Frequently asked questions
Is Greenvale Energy Ltd (GRV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0240 versus a price of A$0.0220, about +9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of GRV?
Our model-based fair value for Greenvale Energy Ltd is A$0.0240 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0220.
What is the quality score of GRV?
Greenvale Energy Ltd has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Greenvale Energy Ltd (GRV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0240 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 5 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0203, optimistic scenario A$0.0296. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Greenvale Energy Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0240, about +9% upside versus a price of A$0.0220 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario A$0.0203, optimistic scenario A$0.0296. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into Greenvale Energy Ltd (GRV)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Greenvale Energy Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +3.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2471.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GRV use?
Our models discount Greenvale Energy Ltd at 10.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 1.29, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Greenvale Energy Ltd that is +3.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Greenvale Energy Ltd (GRV) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Greenvale Energy Ltd grew +2471.3 % a year. The price currently implies +3.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Greenvale Energy Ltd (GRV) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Greenvale Energy Ltd (+3.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Greenvale Energy Ltd (GRV)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.26 %: that much free cash flow Greenvale Energy Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Greenvale Energy Ltd (GRV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Greenvale Energy Ltd it is A$0.0240 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.0220. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Greenvale Energy Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GRV trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.0220, fair value A$0.0240, a gap of about +9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GRV?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0220); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0240). For Greenvale Energy Ltd the two are A$0.0020 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Greenvale Energy Ltd worth?
The market values Greenvale Energy Ltd at about A$24.3M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0220; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0240 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GRV?
Our models span a range for Greenvale Energy Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0203, base A$0.0240, optimistic A$0.0296 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.0220). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Greenvale Energy Ltd (GRV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Greenvale Energy Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −19.0%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GRV from its 52-week high?
Greenvale Energy Ltd trades at A$0.0220, about 62% below its 52-week high of A$0.0580 and at the low of A$0.0220 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0240 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Greenvale Energy Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Greenvale Energy Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.0220, calculated fair value A$0.0240 (+9%), Quality Score 57/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GRV calculated?
We run Greenvale Energy Ltd through 5 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0240, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Greenvale Energy Ltd currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Greenvale Energy Ltd (GRV)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.0220. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0240, about +9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Greenvale Energy Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Greenvale Energy Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Greenvale Energy Ltd (GRV)?
The market capitalisation of Greenvale Energy Ltd is A$24.3M (≈ $17.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the return on equity of Greenvale Energy Ltd (GRV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Greenvale Energy Ltd is −19.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Greenvale Energy Ltd (GRV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Greenvale Energy Ltd is −22.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Greenvale Energy Ltd (GRV)?
Revenue at Greenvale Energy Ltd is growing +179% versus a year earlier (3y avg +99.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Greenvale Energy Ltd (GRV) hold?
Greenvale Energy Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$2.1M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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