Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Goosehead Insurance Inc $9.50, price $43.52, upside -78.2%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Goosehead Insurance Inc for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $27.84 – $167.80 · fair‑value band $7.12 – $11.87 · the $43.52 price screens above the $9.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Follow Goosehead Insurance in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Goosehead Insurance is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. operates as a holding company for Goosehead Financial, LLC that engages in the provision of personal lines insurance agency services in the United States.
Show more
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. operates as a holding company for Goosehead Financial, LLC that engages in the provision of personal lines insurance agency services in the United States. The company offers insurance service for homeowner's; automotive; dwelling property; flood, wind, and earthquake; excess liability or umbrella; general liability, and property and auto insurance for small businesses; life insurance; and motorcycle, recreational vehicle, and other insurance policies. It distributes its products and services through corporate and franchise locations. Goosehead Insurance, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Westlake, Texas.
Stock analysis
Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD) currently trades at $43.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.50, implying the stock looks roughly 358.1% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $48.93 per share, and 2 of the 3 models we run sit above the $43.52 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $9.50, and 1 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $7.12 (bear) to $11.87 (bull), the price of $43.52 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Goosehead Insurance Inc reported revenue of $365M in FY2025 versus $151M in FY2021, a compound +24.7%/yr. Reported net income was $27.8M in FY2025, compounding +50.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.7B · P/E ratio 32.4 · P/S ratio 2.46 · EPS (TTM) $1.14 · Dividend yield 11.1% · Net margin 7.6% · Return on equity 176% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −78%, GSHD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $7.12Fair Value $9.50Bull $11.87
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8339 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.3%
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+36.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+25.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)11.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.23% vs 18%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 20%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+14.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.6% a year for the price and +11.6% for the forecasts.
Compare Goosehead Insurance Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance Brokers · 35 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Above median
Fair Value upside−78% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets13% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)8% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)16% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth23% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)11.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance Brokers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)32.4× · Priciest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)4.34× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF19.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA19.4× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 59
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 62
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 90
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.50 versus a price of $43.52, about −78% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GSHD?
Our model-based fair value for Goosehead Insurance Inc is $9.50 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $43.52.
What is the quality score of GSHD?
Goosehead Insurance Inc has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.50 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.12, optimistic scenario $11.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Goosehead Insurance Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.50, about −78% upside versus a price of $43.52 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $7.12, optimistic scenario $11.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
Goosehead Insurance Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $382M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Goosehead Insurance Inc pay a dividend?
Goosehead Insurance Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 11.10% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Goosehead Insurance Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +18.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +25.6 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GSHD use?
Our models discount Goosehead Insurance Inc at 12.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.47, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Goosehead Insurance Inc that is +18.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Goosehead Insurance Inc grew +25.6 % a year. The price currently implies +18.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Goosehead Insurance Inc (+18.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.19 %: that much free cash flow Goosehead Insurance Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Goosehead Insurance Inc it is $9.50 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $43.52. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Goosehead Insurance Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GSHD trades above its calculated fair value: price $43.52, fair value $9.50, a gap of about −78% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GSHD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($43.52); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.50). For Goosehead Insurance Inc the two are $34.02 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Goosehead Insurance Inc worth?
The market values Goosehead Insurance Inc at about $1.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $43.52; our models calculate a fair value of $9.50 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GSHD?
Our models span a range for Goosehead Insurance Inc: cautious scenario $7.12, base $9.50, optimistic $11.87 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $43.52). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GSHD?
Goosehead Insurance Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.4 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $9.50 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/S 4.3, EV/EBITDA 19.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Goosehead Insurance Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GSHD from its 52-week high?
Goosehead Insurance Inc trades at $43.52, about 44% below its 52-week high of $78.37 and 27% above the low of $34.37 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.50 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Goosehead Insurance Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc, Aon plc, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co, Willis Towers Watson Public Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Goosehead Insurance Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $43.52, calculated fair value $9.50 (−78%), Quality Score 69/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GSHD calculated?
We run Goosehead Insurance Inc through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $9.50, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Goosehead Insurance Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $43.52. Our model-based fair value is $9.50, about −78% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Goosehead Insurance Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($11.87). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Goosehead Insurance Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
The market capitalisation of Goosehead Insurance Inc is $1.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Goosehead Insurance Inc is 2.46 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
Earnings per share at Goosehead Insurance Inc are $1.14 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 32.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
The dividend yield of Goosehead Insurance Inc is 11.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
The net margin of Goosehead Insurance Inc is 7.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Goosehead Insurance Inc is 176% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Goosehead Insurance Inc is 8.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
The operating margin of Goosehead Insurance Inc is 16.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
Revenue at Goosehead Insurance Inc is growing +23.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
Earnings per share at Goosehead Insurance Inc are growing +112% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD) carry?
The net debt of Goosehead Insurance Inc is $318M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Goosehead Insurance Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Goosehead Insurance Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Some data
Sep 23, 2026