Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Goosehead Insurance Inc stock $10.00, price $55.55, that is 82.0% below the price, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 3 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $27.84 – $167.80 · fair‑value band $7.50 – $12.50 · the $55.55 price screens above the $10.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Goosehead Insurance, Inc. operates as a holding company for Goosehead Financial, LLC that engages in the provision of personal lines insurance agency services in the United States.
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The company offers insurance service for homeowner's; automotive; dwelling property; flood, wind, and earthquake; excess liability or umbrella; general liability, and property and auto insurance for small businesses; life insurance; and motorcycle, recreational vehicle, and other insurance policies.
It distributes its products and services through corporate and franchise locations. Goosehead Insurance, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Westlake, Texas.
Stock analysis
Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD) currently trades at $55.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.00, 82% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $28.68 per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the $55.55 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $10.00, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $7.50 (bear) to $12.50 (bull), the price of $55.55 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Goosehead Insurance Inc reported revenue of $365M in FY2025 versus $151M in FY2021, a compound +24.7%/yr. Reported net income was $27.8M in FY2025, compounding +50.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.0B Mid · P/E ratio 35.0 · P/S ratio 2.92 · EPS (TTM) $1.37 · Dividend yield 8.5% · Net margin 8.8% · Return on equity 176% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 62% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −59% fair-value upside, at −82%, GSHD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$7.50Fair Value $10.00Bull$12.50
Price $55.55 · Downside -82.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.17 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 5 officers or directors bought shares worth $765,999, most recently on Jul 31, 2026. Over the same period, 2 people sold shares worth $3.8M. Buying cluster
BuyDurable Capital Partners LP10% owner3× since Jul 24, 2026: 339,979 shares, avg. $54.26$18.4MSep 22, 2026
SaleRobyn Mary Elizabeth JonesDirector, 10% owner82,689 shares at $41.77$3.5MMay 22, 2026
BuyMartin Ellis ThornthwaiteGeneral Counsel5,000 shares at $41.50$207,500May 18, 2026
Plus 5 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 14 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+22.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.23.0% vs 18.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 20%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Goosehead Insurance Inc with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance Brokers · 31 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Above median
Fair Value upside−82.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets10.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)14.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)23.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)20.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)8.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance Brokers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)35.0× · Priciest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.00 versus a price of $55.55, about 82% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GSHD?
Our model-based fair value for Goosehead Insurance Inc is $10.00 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $55.55.
What is the quality score of GSHD?
Goosehead Insurance Inc has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.00 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.50, optimistic scenario $12.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Goosehead Insurance Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.00, about 82% lower versus a price of $55.55 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $7.50, optimistic scenario $12.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
Goosehead Insurance Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $402M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Goosehead Insurance Inc pay a dividend?
Goosehead Insurance Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 8.51% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
Goosehead Insurance Inc has a dividend yield of 8.5%.
What is the intrinsic value of Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Goosehead Insurance Inc it is $10.00 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $55.55. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models in 2 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples).
Is Goosehead Insurance Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, GSHD trades above its calculated fair value: price $55.55, fair value $10.00, a gap of about −82% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GSHD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($55.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.00). For Goosehead Insurance Inc the two are $45.55 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Goosehead Insurance Inc worth?
The market values Goosehead Insurance Inc at about $2.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $55.55; our models calculate a fair value of $10.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GSHD?
Our models span a range for Goosehead Insurance Inc: cautious scenario $7.50, base $10.00, optimistic $12.50 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $55.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GSHD?
Goosehead Insurance Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.0 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $10.00 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 44.4 (reported for FY2025: 76.1). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2019 to 2025), earnings ex one-offs: 83.2. Other multiples: P/S 8.0, EV/EBITDA 34.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Goosehead Insurance Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GSHD from its 52-week high?
Goosehead Insurance Inc trades at $55.55, about 29% below its 52-week high of $78.37 and 62% above the low of $34.37 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Goosehead Insurance Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co, Aon plc, Willis Towers Watson Public Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Goosehead Insurance Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $55.55, calculated fair value $10.00 (−82%), Quality Score 64/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GSHD calculated?
We run Goosehead Insurance Inc through 3 models from 2 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $10.00 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Goosehead Insurance Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $55.55. Our model-based fair value is $10.00, about 82% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Goosehead Insurance Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($12.50). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Goosehead Insurance Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
The market capitalisation of Goosehead Insurance Inc is $2.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Goosehead Insurance Inc is 2.92 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
Earnings per share at Goosehead Insurance Inc are $1.37 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 35.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
The dividend yield of Goosehead Insurance Inc is 8.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
The net margin of Goosehead Insurance Inc is 8.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Goosehead Insurance Inc is 176% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Goosehead Insurance Inc is 8.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
The operating margin of Goosehead Insurance Inc is 23.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
Revenue at Goosehead Insurance Inc is growing +20.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)?
Earnings per share at Goosehead Insurance Inc are growing +122% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD) generate?
The free cash flow of Goosehead Insurance Inc is $86.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD) carry?
The net debt of Goosehead Insurance Inc is $318M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026
