Goosehead Insurance, Inc (GSHD) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $1.3B
Goosehead Insurance, Inc
GSHD · US
Fair value as of: Jul 26, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 15 days ago
Share price +14.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 77% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($19.11). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $27.84 – $167.80 · fair‑value band $11.46 – $19.11 · the $65.20 price screens above the $15.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
Analysis
Goosehead Insurance, Inc (GSHD) currently trades at $65.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.28, implying the stock looks roughly 76.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Goosehead Insurance, Inc generated revenue of $382M at a net margin of 8.0%. Revenue grew 23.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 175.8%. Net debt stands at $318M. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $11.46 (bear case) to $19.11 (bull case); at $65.20, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 94% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -38% fair-value upside, at -77%, GSHD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($78.76) versus Multiples ($15.28). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. operates as a holding company for Goosehead Financial, LLC that engages in the provision of personal lines insurance agency services in the United States.
Full company description
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. operates as a holding company for Goosehead Financial, LLC that engages in the provision of personal lines insurance agency services in the United States. The company offers insurance service for homeowner's; automotive; dwelling property; flood, wind, and earthquake; excess liability or umbrella; general liability, and property and auto insurance for small businesses; life insurance; and motorcycle, recreational vehicle, and other insurance policies. It distributes its products and services through corporate and franchise locations. Goosehead Insurance, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Westlake, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Goosehead Insurance, Inc reported revenue of $365M in FY2025 versus $151M in FY2021, a compound +24.7%/yr. Reported net income was $27.8M in FY2025, compounding +50.7%/yr from FY2021.
GSHD screens 77% overvalued. Compare with Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) Is Up 8.2% After Strong Q2 Results And CEO Succession Plan
- Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) Could Be 10% Undervalued As Q2 Results Draw Focus
- Goosehead outlines 2026 total revenue growth of 12%-19% as CEO transition set for year-end
- Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Revenue Growth and ...
Peer Group
Insurance Brokers · 36 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance Brokers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance Brokers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 26, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc MRSH | $182.18 | $112.25 | -38% |
| Aon plc AON | $367.21 | $224.91 | -39% |
| Arthur J. Gallagher & Co AJG | $253.09 | $75.58 | -70% |
| Willis Towers Watson Public Limited WTW | $285.12 | $220.92 | -23% |
| Brown & Brown, Inc BRO | $67.66 | $40.43 | -40% |
| Erie Indemnity Company ERIE | $227.31 | $157.43 | -31% |
| PB Fintech Limited POLICYBZR | ₹1,574 | ₹188.49 | -88% |
| Neptune Insurance Holdings NP | $31.03 | $3.52 | -89% |
| CorVel Corporation CRVL | $62.29 | $47.59 | -24% |
| Accelerant Holdings ARX | $13.52 | $18.06 | +34% |
Compare Goosehead Insurance, Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Financial Services stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Goosehead Insurance, Inc (GSHD) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of GSHD?
What is the quality score of GSHD?
What is the revenue of Goosehead Insurance, Inc (GSHD)?
What is the net profit margin of GSHD?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Goosehead Insurance, Inc and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.