Garrett Motion Inc (GTX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Garrett Motion Inc $25.41, price $25.50, upside -0.4%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.42 – $36.23 · fair‑value band $16.42 – $36.82 · the $25.50 price screens above the $25.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Garrett Motion Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells turbocharging, air and fluid compression, and high-speed electric motor technologies to original equipment manufacturers and independent aftermarket distributors in the mobility and industrial fields.
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Garrett Motion Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells turbocharging, air and fluid compression, and high-speed electric motor technologies to original equipment manufacturers and independent aftermarket distributors in the mobility and industrial fields. Its solutions include mechanical and electrical products for turbocharging and boosting internal combustion engines, as well as for compressing air and refrigerants for industrial and mobility use. The company operates in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. Garrett Motion Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is based in Rolle, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Garrett Motion Inc (GTX) currently trades at $25.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $25.41, implying the stock looks roughly 0.4% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $31.37 per share, and 6 of the 21 models we run sit above the $25.50 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $3.20, and 15 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $16.42 (bear) to $36.82 (bull), the price of $25.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Garrett Motion Inc reported revenue of $3.6B in FY2025 versus $3.6B in FY2021, a compound −0.3%/yr. Reported net income was $310M in FY2025, compounding −11.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.0B · P/E ratio 14.8 · P/S ratio 1.28 · EPS (TTM) $1.72 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 8.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 19.4% · Operating margin 14.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 106% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 0%, GTX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $16.42Fair Value $25.41Bull $36.82
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.05 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.64/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−14.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−18% vs −7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 14%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 9.6%/yr over ~8Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.1% a year for the price and +1.6% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 663 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets14% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)14.8× · Cheaper than median
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)1.62× · Pricier than median
P/FCF17.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA11.5× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)33· sector 24
FUTURE (revenue growth)61· sector 21
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)22· sector 35
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Is Garrett Motion Inc (GTX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $25.41 versus a price of $25.50, about −0% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of GTX?
Our model-based fair value for Garrett Motion Inc is $25.41 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $25.50.
What is the quality score of GTX?
Garrett Motion Inc has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Garrett Motion Inc (GTX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $25.41 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario $16.42, optimistic scenario $36.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Garrett Motion Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $25.41, about −0% upside versus a price of $25.50 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $16.42, optimistic scenario $36.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Garrett Motion Inc (GTX)?
Garrett Motion Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Garrett Motion Inc pay a dividend?
Garrett Motion Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.10% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Garrett Motion Inc (GTX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Garrett Motion Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +6.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GTX use?
Our models discount Garrett Motion Inc at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.70, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Garrett Motion Inc that is +6.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Garrett Motion Inc (GTX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Garrett Motion Inc grew +3.4 % a year. The price currently implies +6.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Garrett Motion Inc (GTX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Garrett Motion Inc (+6.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Garrett Motion Inc (GTX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.57 %: that much free cash flow Garrett Motion Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Garrett Motion Inc (GTX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Garrett Motion Inc it is $25.41 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $25.50. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Garrett Motion Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GTX trades above its calculated fair value: price $25.50, fair value $25.41, a gap of about −0% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GTX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($25.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($25.41). For Garrett Motion Inc the two are $0.0900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Garrett Motion Inc worth?
The market values Garrett Motion Inc at about $6.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $25.50; our models calculate a fair value of $25.41 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GTX?
Our models span a range for Garrett Motion Inc: cautious scenario $16.42, base $25.41, optimistic $36.82 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $25.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GTX?
Garrett Motion Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.8 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $25.41 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 11.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Garrett Motion Inc (GTX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Garrett Motion Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GTX from its 52-week high?
Garrett Motion Inc trades at $25.50, about 30% below its 52-week high of $36.23 and 106% above the low of $12.35 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $25.41 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Garrett Motion Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Garrett Motion Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $25.50, calculated fair value $25.41 (−0%), Quality Score 60/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GTX calculated?
We run Garrett Motion Inc through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $25.41, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Garrett Motion Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Garrett Motion Inc (GTX)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $25.50. Our model-based fair value is $25.41, about −0% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Garrett Motion Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($16.42 to $36.82) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Garrett Motion Inc (GTX) come from?
Earnings per share at Garrett Motion Inc grew −8.4 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −8.5 %, EBIT margin −3.3 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Garrett Motion Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Garrett Motion Inc (GTX)?
The market capitalisation of Garrett Motion Inc is $6.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Garrett Motion Inc (GTX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Garrett Motion Inc is 1.28 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Garrett Motion Inc (GTX)?
Earnings per share at Garrett Motion Inc are $1.72 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Garrett Motion Inc (GTX)?
The dividend yield of Garrett Motion Inc is 1.1% (payout 16.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Garrett Motion Inc (GTX)?
The net margin of Garrett Motion Inc is 8.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Garrett Motion Inc (GTX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Garrett Motion Inc is 19.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Garrett Motion Inc (GTX)?
The operating margin of Garrett Motion Inc is 14.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Garrett Motion Inc (GTX)?
Revenue at Garrett Motion Inc is growing +12.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Garrett Motion Inc (GTX)?
Earnings per share at Garrett Motion Inc are growing +63.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Garrett Motion Inc (GTX) carry?
The net debt of Garrett Motion Inc is $1.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 23, 2026