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Turkiye Halk Bankasi (HALKB) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Turkiye Halk Bankasi TRY 28.72, price TRY 46.58, upside -38.3%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · TR · ISIN TRETHAL00019

TH Some data Sep 19, 2026

Turkiye Halk Bankasi

HALKB · IS

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value 28.72 TRY · Strongly overvalued (−38%)
!Quality 54/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +55.4 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 17.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (8/13)
!Moderate moat 62/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

54.35 TRY 4.20 TRY Fair Value 28.72 TRY Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 4.20 TRY – 54.35 TRY · fair‑value band 25.75 TRY – 41.39 TRY · the 46.58 TRY price screens above the 28.72 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 19, 2026.

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Company profile

Türkiye Halk Bankasi A.S., together with its subsidiaries, offers various banking products and services.

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Türkiye Halk Bankasi A.S., together with its subsidiaries, offers various banking products and services. The company provides deposit products, including e-deposits, deposit accounts with investment funds, child accounts, accumulated deposit accounts, producing deposit accounts, current TL accounts, time deposit TL/FX accounts, current FX accounts, gold deposit accounts, and safety deposit boxes. It also offers personal, auto, mortgage, and overdraft loans; letter of credit, commercial, and cash and non-cash loans; medium and long-term, and investment and project loans; loans from international financial institutions; and foreign trade loans. In addition, the company provides various cards and payment services; insurance products; derivative products; and investment products comprising investment funds, Fon24, domestic government bonds, bank bills and bonds, eurobonds, repos, forwards, options, swaps, and secured options, as well as cash management services. Further, it offers Internet, mobile, and SMS banking services. Additionally, the company is involved in investment in capital market instruments based on real estate, real estate projects, and rights based on real estate; financial leasing; factoring; financing; savings; financing and asset management; and capital markets activities. Türkiye Halk Bankasi A.S. operates domestic and foreign branches in Cyprus and Bahrain and representative offices in England and Iran. Türkiye Halk Bankasi A.S. was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey. Türkiye Halk Bankasi A.S. operates as a subsidiary of Turkey Wealth Fund.

Stock analysis

Turkiye Halk Bankasi (HALKB) currently trades at 46.58 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 28.72 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 62.2% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 42.55 TRY per share, and 1 of the 4 models we run sit above the 46.58 TRY price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 20.36 TRY, and 3 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: 25.75 TRY (bear) to 41.39 TRY (bull), the price of 46.58 TRY sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Turkiye Halk Bankasi reported revenue of 172B TRL in FY2025 versus 24.6B TRL in FY2021, a compound +62.7%/yr. Reported net income was 27.1B TRL in FY2025, compounding +96.1%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Key figures

Market cap 335B TRY (≈ $6.9B) · P/E ratio 11.1 · P/S ratio 1.74 · EPS (TTM) 4.21 TRY · Net margin 15.7% · Return on equity 15.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2% · Operating margin 29.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 99% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −38%, HALKB screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 25.75 TRY Fair Value 28.72 TRY Bull 41.39 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (3.07 TRY per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income 28.92 TRY 35.64 TRY 85.10 TRY 69
P/E Multiple 36.82 TRY 49.09 TRY 61.36 TRY 63
P/B Multiple 31.91 TRY 42.55 TRY 53.19 TRY 55
All 4 models by family
Multiples
P/E Multiple 36.82 TRY 49.09 TRY 61.36 TRY 63
P/B Multiple 31.91 TRY 42.55 TRY 53.19 TRY 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 15.20 TRY 20.36 TRY 30.39 TRY 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income 28.92 TRY 35.64 TRY 85.10 TRY 69

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65

Profitability 28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 99
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 69
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 18
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 45
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 63
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 90
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 90
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+122.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+55.4%
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−37.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+82.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+82.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2014 to 2019 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.83% → 17%
2025 sits 61% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.

HALKB screens 62% overvalued. Compare with DBS Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1077 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −17% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 18% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 30% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 67% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.15× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 11.1× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.22× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.58× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 0.0× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 0.32× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)62 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)93 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group DBS19 20.20 THB 6.69 THB −67%
China Merchants Bank Co 3968 HK$51.35 HK$78.59 +53%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.73 €4.04 −40%
HDFC Bank Limited HDB $23.16 $15.60 −33%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €102.32 €105.99 +4%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €82.92 €77.62 −6%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $11.15 $9.67 −13%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,359 ₹636.31 −53%
The PNC Financial Services Group PNC $231.49 $159.52 −31%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 31.28 SGD 19.80 SGD −37%

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Turkiye Halk Bankasi · Fair Value
28.72 TRY −62%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Turkiye Halk Bankasi Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HALKB

Frequently asked questions

Is Turkiye Halk Bankasi (HALKB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 28.72 TRY versus a price of 46.58 TRY, about −38% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HALKB?
Our model-based fair value for Turkiye Halk Bankasi is 28.72 TRY (as of Sep 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 46.58 TRY.
What is the quality score of HALKB?
Turkiye Halk Bankasi has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Turkiye Halk Bankasi (HALKB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 28.72 TRY (as of Sep 19, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario 25.75 TRY, optimistic scenario 41.39 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Turkiye Halk Bankasi stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 28.72 TRY, about −38% upside versus a price of 46.58 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 25.75 TRY, optimistic scenario 41.39 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Turkiye Halk Bankasi (HALKB)?
Turkiye Halk Bankasi reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 169B TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 19, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Turkiye Halk Bankasi (HALKB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Turkiye Halk Bankasi it is 28.72 TRY per share (as of Sep 19, 2026), against a price of 46.58 TRY. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Turkiye Halk Bankasi stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 19, 2026, HALKB trades above its calculated fair value: price 46.58 TRY, fair value 28.72 TRY, a gap of about −38% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HALKB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (46.58 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (28.72 TRY). For Turkiye Halk Bankasi the two are 17.86 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Turkiye Halk Bankasi worth?
The market values Turkiye Halk Bankasi at about 335B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 19, 2026). Per share that is 46.58 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 28.72 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HALKB?
Our models span a range for Turkiye Halk Bankasi: cautious scenario 25.75 TRY, base 28.72 TRY, optimistic 41.39 TRY per share (as of Sep 19, 2026, price 46.58 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HALKB?
Turkiye Halk Bankasi trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.1 (as of Sep 19, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 28.72 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 1.2, P/S 1.6.
What is the PEG ratio of HALKB?
The PEG ratio of Turkiye Halk Bankasi is 0.32 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 19, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Turkiye Halk Bankasi (HALKB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Turkiye Halk Bankasi (as of Sep 19, 2026): return on equity 15.4%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HALKB from its 52-week high?
Turkiye Halk Bankasi trades at 46.58 TRY, about 11% below its 52-week high of 52.50 TRY and 99% above the low of 23.38 TRY (as of Sep 19, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 28.72 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Turkiye Halk Bankasi?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Turkiye Halk Bankasi stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 19, 2026: price 46.58 TRY, calculated fair value 28.72 TRY (−38%), Quality Score 54/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HALKB calculated?
We run Turkiye Halk Bankasi through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 28.72 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Turkiye Halk Bankasi itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Turkiye Halk Bankasi (HALKB)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was 46.58 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 28.72 TRY, about −38% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Turkiye Halk Bankasi right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (41.39 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Turkiye Halk Bankasi

How large is the market capitalisation of Turkiye Halk Bankasi (HALKB)?
The market capitalisation of Turkiye Halk Bankasi is 335B TRY (≈ $6.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Turkiye Halk Bankasi (HALKB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Turkiye Halk Bankasi is 1.74 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Turkiye Halk Bankasi (HALKB)?
Earnings per share at Turkiye Halk Bankasi are 4.21 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Turkiye Halk Bankasi (HALKB)?
The net margin of Turkiye Halk Bankasi is 15.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Turkiye Halk Bankasi (HALKB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Turkiye Halk Bankasi is 15.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Turkiye Halk Bankasi (HALKB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Turkiye Halk Bankasi is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Turkiye Halk Bankasi (HALKB)?
The operating margin of Turkiye Halk Bankasi is 29.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Turkiye Halk Bankasi (HALKB)?
Revenue at Turkiye Halk Bankasi is growing +67.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +30.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Turkiye Halk Bankasi (HALKB)?
Earnings per share at Turkiye Halk Bankasi are growing +48.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Turkiye Halk Bankasi (HALKB) generate?
The free cash flow of Turkiye Halk Bankasi is 221B TRY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Turkiye Halk Bankasi (HALKB) carry?
The net debt of Turkiye Halk Bankasi is 57.1B TRY (fiscal year 2021, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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