Happinet Corporation (HAPYF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of Happinet Corporation $32.31, price $10.88, upside +197.1%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
31‑month range $9.06 – $917,746 · fair‑value band $24.23 – $40.38 · the $10.88 price screens below the $32.31 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Happinet Corporation operates as an entertainment trading company in Japan. The company manufactures and sells toys, trading cards, playthings, and other toys, as well as audio-visual software; and plans, develops, and sells video and music, and video game software and hardware-related products.
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Happinet Corporation operates as an entertainment trading company in Japan. The company manufactures and sells toys, trading cards, playthings, and other toys, as well as audio-visual software; and plans, develops, and sells video and music, and video game software and hardware-related products. It also sells arcade game machines and amusement arcade-related products; and installs and operates toy vending machines and operates capsule toy specialty stores. The company was formerly known as Tosho Corporation and changed its name to Happinet Corporation in October 1991. Happinet Corporation was incorporated in 1969 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Happinet Corporation (HAPYF) currently trades at $10.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.31, implying the stock looks roughly 66.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $42.96 per share, and 23 of the 24 models we run sit above the $10.88 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.88, and 1 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $24.23 (bear) to $40.38 (bull), the price of $10.88 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Happinet Corporation reported revenue of ¥439B in FY2026 versus ¥282B in FY2022, a compound +11.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥10.1B in FY2026, compounding +29.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $471M · P/E ratio 12.9 · P/S ratio 0.30 · EPS (TTM) $0.8400 · Net margin 2.3% · Return on equity 17.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.1% · Operating margin 2.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 197%, HAPYF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $24.23Fair Value $32.31Bull $40.38
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4073 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.83/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+12.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 4%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−37.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −39.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 231 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Above median
Fair Value upside+197% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)17% · Top 25%
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth23% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Happinet Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HAPYF
Frequently asked questions
Is Happinet Corporation (HAPYF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $32.31 versus a price of $10.88, about +197% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HAPYF?
Our model-based fair value for Happinet Corporation is $32.31 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.88.
What is the quality score of HAPYF?
Happinet Corporation has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Happinet Corporation (HAPYF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $32.31 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $24.23, optimistic scenario $40.38. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Happinet Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $32.31, about +197% upside versus a price of $10.88 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $24.23, optimistic scenario $40.38. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Happinet Corporation (HAPYF)?
Happinet Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥439B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Happinet Corporation (HAPYF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Happinet Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by -37.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HAPYF use?
Our models discount Happinet Corporation at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.17, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Happinet Corporation that is -37.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Happinet Corporation (HAPYF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Happinet Corporation grew +11.1 % a year. The price currently implies -37.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Happinet Corporation (HAPYF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Happinet Corporation (-37.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Happinet Corporation (HAPYF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 20.34 %: that much free cash flow Happinet Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Happinet Corporation (HAPYF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Happinet Corporation it is $32.31 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $10.88. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Happinet Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HAPYF trades below its calculated fair value: price $10.88, fair value $32.31, a gap of about +197% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HAPYF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.88); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($32.31). For Happinet Corporation the two are $21.44 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Happinet Corporation worth?
The market values Happinet Corporation at about $471M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $10.88; our models calculate a fair value of $32.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HAPYF?
Our models span a range for Happinet Corporation: cautious scenario $24.23, base $32.31, optimistic $40.38 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $10.88). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HAPYF?
Happinet Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $32.31 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 1.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Happinet Corporation (HAPYF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Happinet Corporation (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 17.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HAPYF from its 52-week high?
Happinet Corporation trades at $10.88, at its 52-week high of $10.88 and 9% above the low of $9.98 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $32.31 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Happinet Corporation?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Happinet Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $10.88, calculated fair value $32.31 (+197%), Quality Score 63/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HAPYF calculated?
We run Happinet Corporation through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $32.31, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Happinet Corporation currently trades 197 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Happinet Corporation (HAPYF)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $10.88. Our model-based fair value is $32.31, about +197% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Happinet Corporation right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($24.23). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Happinet Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Happinet Corporation (HAPYF)?
The market capitalisation of Happinet Corporation is $471M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Happinet Corporation (HAPYF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Happinet Corporation is 0.30 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Happinet Corporation (HAPYF)?
Earnings per share at Happinet Corporation are $0.8400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Happinet Corporation (HAPYF)?
The net margin of Happinet Corporation is 2.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Happinet Corporation (HAPYF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Happinet Corporation is 17.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Happinet Corporation (HAPYF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Happinet Corporation is 8.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Happinet Corporation (HAPYF)?
The operating margin of Happinet Corporation is 2.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Happinet Corporation (HAPYF)?
Revenue at Happinet Corporation is growing +22.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Happinet Corporation (HAPYF)?
Earnings per share at Happinet Corporation are growing −62.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026