Havanna Holding (HAVA) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · AR · Market cap 253B ARS
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +0.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range (3,985 ARS to 9,706 ARS) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 114.86 ARS – 9,238 ARS · fair‑value band 3,985 ARS – 9,706 ARS · the 5,390 ARS price screens above the 5,313 ARS fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Havanna Holding (HAVA) currently trades at 5,390 ARS, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 5,313 ARS, implying the stock looks roughly 1.4% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Havanna Holding generated revenue of 158B ARS at a net margin of 7.4%. Revenue grew 0.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.6%. Net debt stands at 34.2B ARS. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 3,985 ARS (bear case) to 9,706 ARS (bull case); at 5,390 ARS, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -1%, HAVA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (11,220 ARS) versus Asset-Based (865.67 ARS). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Havanna Holding S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the operation and franchise of coffee shops in Brazil, Peru, Paraguay, Chile, Spain, and Bolivia. The company offers caramel cookies, havannets, cookies, mini line, chocolates, caramel sauce, haired, lattes, and frappes. It also operates bars and cafés.
Full company description
Havanna Holding S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the operation and franchise of coffee shops in Brazil, Peru, Paraguay, Chile, Spain, and Bolivia. The company offers caramel cookies, havannets, cookies, mini line, chocolates, caramel sauce, haired, lattes, and frappes. It also operates bars and cafés. The company is involved in the distribution activities in the United States, Colombia, Costa Rica, El, Nicaragua, Europe, Israel, and Australia. Havanna Holding S.A. was founded in 1947 and is based in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Havanna Holding reported revenue of 158B ARS in FY2025 versus 5.5B ARS in FY2021, a compound +131.6%/yr. Reported net income was 11.3B ARS in FY2025, compounding +122.9%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Restaurants · 227 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $105.49 | $35.83 | -66% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $34.63 | $18.43 | -47% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $163.54 | $59.66 | -64% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.19 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $195.74 | $173.68 | -11% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $43.90 | $55.10 | +26% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $197.03 | $104.89 | -47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $68.36 | $12.80 | -81% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $322.18 | $231.96 | -28% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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