Havanna Holding SA (HAVA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Havanna Holding SA ARS 3,067, price ARS 4,190, upside -26.8%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 114.86 ARS – 9,238 ARS · fair‑value band 1,464 ARS – 5,954 ARS · the 4,190 ARS price screens above the 3,067 ARS fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Havanna Holding S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the operation and franchise of coffee shops in Brazil, Peru, Paraguay, Chile, Spain, and Bolivia. The company offers caramel cookies, havannets, cookies, mini line, chocolates, caramel sauce, haired, lattes, and frappes. It also operates bars and cafés.
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Havanna Holding S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the operation and franchise of coffee shops in Brazil, Peru, Paraguay, Chile, Spain, and Bolivia. The company offers caramel cookies, havannets, cookies, mini line, chocolates, caramel sauce, haired, lattes, and frappes. It also operates bars and cafés. The company is involved in the distribution activities in the United States, Colombia, Costa Rica, El, Nicaragua, Europe, Israel, and Australia. Havanna Holding S.A. was founded in 1947 and is based in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Stock analysis
Havanna Holding SA (HAVA) currently trades at 4,190 ARS, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 3,067 ARS, implying the stock looks roughly 36.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 11,220 ARS per share, and 16 of the 24 models we run sit above the 4,190 ARS price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 865.67 ARS, and 8 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 1,464 ARS (bear) to 5,954 ARS (bull), the price of 4,190 ARS sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Havanna Holding SA reported revenue of 158B ARS in FY2025 versus 5.5B ARS in FY2021, a compound +131.6%/yr. Reported net income was 11.3B ARS in FY2025, compounding +122.9%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 253B ARS (≈ $177M) · P/E ratio 21.8 · P/S ratio 1.56 · EPS (TTM) 247.78 ARS · Net margin 7.2% · Return on equity 18.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 41.0% · Operating margin 23.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −27%, HAVA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 1,464 ARSFair Value 3,067 ARSBull 5,954 ARS
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (181.93 ARS per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+54.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+124.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +68.7% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+68.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in ARS ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ARS: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+15.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−9% → 17%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+63.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Argentina: IMF forecast 13.8% a year to 2030) that is about +43.6% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 226 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside−27% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)19% · Top 25%
Return on assets12% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)23% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.53× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)21.8× · Pricier than median
P/B4.17× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.60× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF0.1× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA9.3× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 39
FUTURE (revenue growth)4· sector 18
PAST (return on equity)74· sector 21
HEALTH (low debt)73· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 70
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Havanna Holding SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HAVA
Frequently asked questions
Is Havanna Holding SA (HAVA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 3,067 ARS versus a price of 4,190 ARS, about −27% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HAVA?
Our model-based fair value for Havanna Holding SA is 3,067 ARS (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 4,190 ARS.
What is the quality score of HAVA?
Havanna Holding SA has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Havanna Holding SA (HAVA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 3,067 ARS (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1,464 ARS, optimistic scenario 5,954 ARS. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Havanna Holding SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 3,067 ARS, about −27% upside versus a price of 4,190 ARS (overvalued). Cautious scenario 1,464 ARS, optimistic scenario 5,954 ARS. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Havanna Holding SA (HAVA)?
Havanna Holding SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 158B ARS (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Havanna Holding SA (HAVA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Havanna Holding SA would have to grow free cash flow by +63.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 22.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +124.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HAVA use?
Our models discount Havanna Holding SA at 22.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Argentina. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Havanna Holding SA that is +63.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (22.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Havanna Holding SA (HAVA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Havanna Holding SA grew +124.9 % a year. The price currently implies +63.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Havanna Holding SA (HAVA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Havanna Holding SA (+63.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Havanna Holding SA (HAVA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.79 %: that much free cash flow Havanna Holding SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (22.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Havanna Holding SA (HAVA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Havanna Holding SA it is 3,067 ARS per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 4,190 ARS. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Havanna Holding SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HAVA trades above its calculated fair value: price 4,190 ARS, fair value 3,067 ARS, a gap of about −27% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HAVA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (4,190 ARS); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (3,067 ARS). For Havanna Holding SA the two are 1,123 ARS per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Havanna Holding SA worth?
The market values Havanna Holding SA at about 253B ARS (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 4,190 ARS; our models calculate a fair value of 3,067 ARS per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HAVA?
Our models span a range for Havanna Holding SA: cautious scenario 1,464 ARS, base 3,067 ARS, optimistic 5,954 ARS per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 4,190 ARS). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HAVA?
Havanna Holding SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 3,067 ARS is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.2, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 9.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Havanna Holding SA (HAVA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Havanna Holding SA (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 18.6%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HAVA from its 52-week high?
Havanna Holding SA trades at 4,190 ARS, about 34% below its 52-week high of 6,330 ARS and 1% above the low of 4,130 ARS (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 3,067 ARS is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Havanna Holding SA?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Havanna Holding SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 4,190 ARS, calculated fair value 3,067 ARS (−27%), Quality Score 49/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HAVA calculated?
We run Havanna Holding SA through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 3,067 ARS, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Havanna Holding SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Havanna Holding SA (HAVA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 4,190 ARS. Our model-based fair value is 3,067 ARS, about −27% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Havanna Holding SA right now?
The model range is unusually wide (1,464 ARS to 5,954 ARS). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Havanna Holding SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Havanna Holding SA (HAVA)?
The market capitalisation of Havanna Holding SA is 253B ARS (≈ $177M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Havanna Holding SA (HAVA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Havanna Holding SA is 1.56 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Havanna Holding SA (HAVA)?
Earnings per share at Havanna Holding SA are 247.78 ARS (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Havanna Holding SA (HAVA)?
The net margin of Havanna Holding SA is 7.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Havanna Holding SA (HAVA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Havanna Holding SA is 18.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Havanna Holding SA (HAVA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Havanna Holding SA is 41.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Havanna Holding SA (HAVA)?
The operating margin of Havanna Holding SA is 23.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Havanna Holding SA (HAVA)?
Revenue at Havanna Holding SA is growing +0.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +54.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Havanna Holding SA (HAVA)?
Earnings per share at Havanna Holding SA are growing +3.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Havanna Holding SA (HAVA) carry?
The net debt of Havanna Holding SA is 34.2B ARS (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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