Hawesko Holding AG (HAW) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Hawesko Holding AG €20.00, price €15.60, upside +28.2%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €15.60 – €50.29 · fair‑value band €15.00 – €25.00 · the €15.60 price screens below the €20.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Hawesko Holding SE engages in the trade and sale of wines, champagnes, and spirits in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, and the Czech Republic, Sweden, and internationally. It operates through three segments: E-commerce, Retail, and B2B.
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Hawesko Holding SE engages in the trade and sale of wines, champagnes, and spirits in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, and the Czech Republic, Sweden, and internationally. It operates through three segments: E-commerce, Retail, and B2B. The company operates retail outlets through independent agency partners and its own stores; sells products through its own sales force and sales representatives, as well as engages in gifts business for private customers based on a special catalog. The company was founded in 1964 and is based in Hamburg, Germany. Hawesko Holding SE operates as a subsidiary of Tocos Beteiligung GmbH.
Stock analysis
Hawesko Holding AG (HAW) currently trades at €15.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €20.00, implying the stock looks roughly 22.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €34.90 per share, and 18 of the 24 models we run sit above the €15.60 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €5.52, and 6 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €15.00 (bear) to €25.00 (bull), the price of €15.60 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Hawesko Holding AG reported revenue of €622M in FY2025 versus €681M in FY2021, a compound −2.2%/yr. Reported net income was €10.6M in FY2025, compounding −25.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €162M · P/E ratio 12.7 · P/S ratio 0.22 · EPS (TTM) €1.23 · Dividend yield 8.3% · Net margin 1.7% · Return on equity 9.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at 28%, HAW screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €15.00Fair Value €20.00Bull €25.00
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.7% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−6.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−15% vs −3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−18.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −20.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 98 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hawesko Holding AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HAW
Frequently asked questions
Is Hawesko Holding AG (HAW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €20.00 versus a price of €15.60, about +28% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HAW?
Our model-based fair value for Hawesko Holding AG is €20.00 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €15.60.
What is the quality score of HAW?
Hawesko Holding AG has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hawesko Holding AG (HAW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €20.00 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €15.00, optimistic scenario €25.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hawesko Holding AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €20.00, about +28% upside versus a price of €15.60 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €15.00, optimistic scenario €25.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hawesko Holding AG (HAW)?
Hawesko Holding AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €620M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Hawesko Holding AG pay a dividend?
Hawesko Holding AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.33% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hawesko Holding AG (HAW)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hawesko Holding AG would have to grow free cash flow by -18.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.0 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HAW use?
Our models discount Hawesko Holding AG at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.52, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hawesko Holding AG that is -18.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hawesko Holding AG (HAW) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hawesko Holding AG grew +0.0 % a year. The price currently implies -18.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hawesko Holding AG (HAW) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hawesko Holding AG (-18.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hawesko Holding AG (HAW)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 28.43 %: that much free cash flow Hawesko Holding AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hawesko Holding AG (HAW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hawesko Holding AG it is €20.00 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €15.60. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hawesko Holding AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, HAW trades below its calculated fair value: price €15.60, fair value €20.00, a gap of about +28% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HAW?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€15.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€20.00). For Hawesko Holding AG the two are €4.40 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hawesko Holding AG worth?
The market values Hawesko Holding AG at about €162M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €15.60; our models calculate a fair value of €20.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HAW?
Our models span a range for Hawesko Holding AG: cautious scenario €15.00, base €20.00, optimistic €25.00 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €15.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HAW?
Hawesko Holding AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.7 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €20.00 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.0, P/B 1.5, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 5.5.
What is the PEG ratio of HAW?
The PEG ratio of Hawesko Holding AG is 1.97 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hawesko Holding AG (HAW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hawesko Holding AG (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 9.1%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HAW from its 52-week high?
Hawesko Holding AG trades at €15.60, about 28% below its 52-week high of €21.80 and at the low of €15.60 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €20.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hawesko Holding AG?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Luzhou Laojiao Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hawesko Holding AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €15.60, calculated fair value €20.00 (+28%), Quality Score 62/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HAW calculated?
We run Hawesko Holding AG through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €20.00, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Hawesko Holding AG currently trades 28 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hawesko Holding AG (HAW)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was €15.60. Our model-based fair value is €20.00, about +28% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hawesko Holding AG right now?
Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Hawesko Holding AG (HAW) come from?
Earnings per share at Hawesko Holding AG grew −4.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.3 %, EBIT margin −3.7 %, tax rate −1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hawesko Holding AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Hawesko Holding AG (HAW)?
The market capitalisation of Hawesko Holding AG is €162M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hawesko Holding AG (HAW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hawesko Holding AG is 0.22 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hawesko Holding AG (HAW)?
Earnings per share at Hawesko Holding AG are €1.23 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hawesko Holding AG (HAW)?
The dividend yield of Hawesko Holding AG is 8.3% (payout 106%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hawesko Holding AG (HAW)?
The net margin of Hawesko Holding AG is 1.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hawesko Holding AG (HAW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hawesko Holding AG is 9.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hawesko Holding AG (HAW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hawesko Holding AG is 7.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hawesko Holding AG (HAW)?
The operating margin of Hawesko Holding AG is 1.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hawesko Holding AG (HAW)?
Revenue at Hawesko Holding AG is growing −1.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hawesko Holding AG (HAW)?
Earnings per share at Hawesko Holding AG are growing +10.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hawesko Holding AG (HAW) carry?
The net debt of Hawesko Holding AG is €141M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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