Check 35,000+ stocks against 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors
Data-driven stock valuation
Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free
Discover now →
Haidilao International Holding (HDALF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Haidilao International Holding $2.33, price $1.15, upside +102.6%, quality 70 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
- Add to watchlist
HI
Broad data
Sep 23, 2026
Broad data
Sep 23, 2026
Haidilao International Holding
HDALF · USClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value $2.33 · Strongly undervalued (+102.6%)
✓Quality 70/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +8.0 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 69/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.14 – $8.71 · fair‑value band $1.67 – $2.90 · the $1.15 price screens below the $2.33 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Company profile
Haidilao International Holding Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the restaurant operation and delivery businesses in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. The company operates through Restaurant Operation, Delivery Business, Sales of Condiment Products and Food Ingredients, and Franchise Business segments.
Show more
Haidilao International Holding Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the restaurant operation and delivery businesses in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. The company operates through Restaurant Operation, Delivery Business, Sales of Condiment Products and Food Ingredients, and Franchise Business segments. It also operates a Chinese cuisine restaurant under the Haidilao brand that offers hot pot cuisine. In addition, the company is involved in technology; sale of condiment products and food ingredients; hotel operation; property investment management and consulting; and trading businesses. Haidilao International Holding Ltd. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Haidilao International Holding (HDALF) currently trades at $1.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.33, implying the stock looks roughly 50.6% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $2.80 per share, and 22 of the 26 models we run sit above the $1.15 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $0.7200, and 4 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $1.67 (bear) to $2.90 (bull), the price of $1.15 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Haidilao International Holding reported revenue of 42.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 39.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound +1.9%/yr. Reported net income was 3.9B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $9.4B · P/E ratio 14.7 · P/S ratio 1.38 · EPS (TTM) $0.1100 · Net margin 9.4% · Return on equity 39.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 26.6% · Operating margin 12.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 103%, HDALF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.67
Fair Value $2.33
Bull $2.90
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$1.62
$2.77
$4.76
78
Growth DCF
$1.60
$2.63
$4.32
77
Owner Earnings
$1.74
$3.01
$5.17
74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$1.62
$2.77
$4.76
78
Owner Earnings
$1.74
$3.01
$5.17
74
5Y Revenue Exit
$1.30
$2.11
$3.19
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
$1.73
$2.99
$4.60
74
5Y P/E Exit
$1.77
$3.08
$4.60
70
10Y Revenue Exit
$1.37
$2.16
$3.37
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$1.68
$2.80
$4.54
67
10Y P/E Exit
$1.70
$2.86
$4.54
62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.7400
$3.61
$4.98
64
Lynch FV
$0.9700
$1.39
$1.80
61
PEG = 1.0
$0.9700
$1.39
$1.80
57
EPV
$0.9700
$1.09
$1.20
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.9700
$1.94
$2.94
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.9700
$1.68
$2.05
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$1.79
$2.39
$2.99
63
P/S Multiple
$1.04
$1.39
$1.74
58
P/B Multiple
$0.8300
$1.10
$1.38
55
EV/EBIT
$1.99
$2.59
$3.19
66
EV/EBITDA
$1.91
$2.49
$3.07
67
EV/Revenue
$1.16
$1.58
$2.00
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.1400
$0.1900
$0.2800
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$1.60
$2.63
$4.32
77
Rev-Margin DCF
$1.30
$2.09
$3.12
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$0.6100
$0.7200
$1.23
74
ROIC Compounder
$1.01
$1.19
$1.39
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$1.54
$2.20
$2.86
67
Notify me when HDALF reaches fair value
Put HDALF on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
70/100
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21
Profitability
84
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
20
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
56
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
90
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
77
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
42
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
17
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
2
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
75/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +22.0% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.0%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+23.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+23.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.23.8% vs 22.6%, steady
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 12%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.6% a year for the price and +5.2% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+10.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+7.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)+6.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+5.1%
Watch HDALF, get fair value alerts →
Compare Haidilao International Holding with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCD | $233.60 | $162.81 | −30% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $93.96 | $35.83 | −62% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $32.32 | $35.55 | +10% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $138.28 | $76.78 | −44% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | $71.48 | $73.34 | +3% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $199.75 | $175.20 | −12% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $40.80 | $50.76 | +24% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $158.45 | $128.55 | −19% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $301.81 | $233.22 | −23% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $37.89 | $10.27 | −73% |
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Cyclical stocks →
All undervalued stocks
TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued High-Quality StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
🥇 Backtested Best
🏆 Big Names
⭐ Top Rated
💎 Quality on Sale
🚀 Profitable Growth
🧊 Quality Compounders
💵 Dividend Stars
📈 Strong Momentum
📉 Fallen Angels
⚖️ Deeply Undervalued
🔍 Small-Cap Gems
🏰 Moat at a Fair Price
💼 Insider Buying
🎩 Buffett-Style Quality
📚 Peter Lynch GARP
🧮 Greenblatt Magic Formula
🛡️ Graham Defensive
Discover tools
Stock screenerFilter by region, size and sector
Compare toolTwo stocks side by side
Extrinsic Value Calculator…Calculator with industry benchmark
Peter Lynch Fair Value Formula &…Calculator with industry benchmark
Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
Frequently asked questions
Is Haidilao International Holding (HDALF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.33 versus a price of $1.15, about +103% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HDALF?
Our model-based fair value for Haidilao International Holding is $2.33 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.15.
What is the quality score of HDALF?
Haidilao International Holding has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Haidilao International Holding (HDALF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.33 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.67, optimistic scenario $2.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Haidilao International Holding stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.33, about +103% upside versus a price of $1.15 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $1.67, optimistic scenario $2.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Haidilao International Holding (HDALF)?
Haidilao International Holding reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 43.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Haidilao International Holding (HDALF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Haidilao International Holding would have to grow free cash flow by -7.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.0 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HDALF use?
Our models discount Haidilao International Holding at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.72, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Haidilao International Holding that is -7.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Haidilao International Holding (HDALF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Haidilao International Holding grew +8.0 % a year. The price currently implies -7.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Haidilao International Holding (HDALF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Haidilao International Holding (-7.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Haidilao International Holding (HDALF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.59 %: that much free cash flow Haidilao International Holding produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Haidilao International Holding (HDALF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Haidilao International Holding it is $2.33 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $1.15. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Haidilao International Holding stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, HDALF trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.15, fair value $2.33, a gap of about +103% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HDALF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.33). For Haidilao International Holding the two are $1.18 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Haidilao International Holding worth?
The market values Haidilao International Holding at about $9.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $1.15; our models calculate a fair value of $2.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HDALF?
Our models span a range for Haidilao International Holding: cautious scenario $1.67, base $2.33, optimistic $2.90 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $1.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is HDALF from its 52-week high?
Haidilao International Holding trades at $1.15, about 48% below its 52-week high of $2.23 and at the low of $1.15 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Haidilao International Holding?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Haidilao International Holding stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $1.15, calculated fair value $2.33 (+103%), Quality Score 70/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HDALF calculated?
We run Haidilao International Holding through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.33, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Haidilao International Holding currently trades 51 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Haidilao International Holding (HDALF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $1.15. Our model-based fair value is $2.33, about +103% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Haidilao International Holding right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (70/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1.67). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Where does the earnings growth of Haidilao International Holding (HDALF) come from?
Earnings per share at Haidilao International Holding grew +28.7 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +23.6 %, EBIT margin −0.1 %, tax rate +1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Haidilao International Holding
How large is the market capitalisation of Haidilao International Holding (HDALF)?
The market capitalisation of Haidilao International Holding is $9.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Haidilao International Holding (HDALF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Haidilao International Holding is 14.7 (as of Jun 20, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Haidilao International Holding (HDALF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Haidilao International Holding is 1.38 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Haidilao International Holding (HDALF)?
Earnings per share at Haidilao International Holding are $0.1100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Haidilao International Holding (HDALF)?
The net margin of Haidilao International Holding is 9.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Haidilao International Holding (HDALF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Haidilao International Holding is 39.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Haidilao International Holding (HDALF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Haidilao International Holding is 26.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Haidilao International Holding (HDALF)?
The operating margin of Haidilao International Holding is 12.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Haidilao International Holding (HDALF)?
Revenue at Haidilao International Holding is growing +5.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Haidilao International Holding (HDALF)?
Earnings per share at Haidilao International Holding are growing −13.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Haidilao International Holding (HDALF) hold?
Haidilao International Holding holds more cash than debt, 779M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Continue in the live analysis
Fair value and trend for 35,000+ stocks, watchlist, comparison and the diversification check. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Open the live analysis →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.