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Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC (HDC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC VND 13,298, price VND 11,500, upside +15.6%, quality 30 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Real Estate · VN · ISIN VN000000HDC9

BR Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC

HDC · VN

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value 13,298 VND · Undervalued (+16%)
!Quality 30/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −11.5 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 112.6% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
!Moderate moat 56/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range 10,017 VND to 37,093 VND
!Weak on dividend: 1 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

46,403 VND 10,900 VND Fair Value 13,298 VND Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 10,900 VND – 46,403 VND · fair‑value band 10,017 VND – 37,093 VND · the 11,500 VND price screens below the 13,298 VND fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Ba Ria - Vung Tau House Development Joint Stock Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in real estate business in Vietnam.

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Ba Ria - Vung Tau House Development Joint Stock Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in real estate business in Vietnam. It is involved in the house trading, construction investment, post business, apartment management, real estate exchange management, real estate brokeraging, real estate valuation, construction materials trading, tourism service business, development and construction for urban area and industrial zone, implementing civil, industrial and traffic engineering, making concrete and other cement related products, and repairing and maintenance of elevators. it also involved in the constructing civil architectures, trading real estate, land use rights, buying houses, constructions for sales, lease, investing for refinery and infrastructure, constructing and managing apartments, water park, housing business, real estate business, including land use rights owned by the enterprise, land use rights under ownership, and land use rights leased by the enterprise. In addition, it invests in new urban areas and housing; real estate business; construction of civil industry, transport works; production of concrete and products from cement, mortar; and hotel business. The company was founded in 1990 and is based in Vung Tàu, Vietnam.

Stock analysis

Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC (HDC) currently trades at 11,500 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 13,298 VND, implying the stock looks roughly 13.5% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 47,295 VND per share, and 6 of the 10 models we run sit above the 11,500 VND price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 8,428 VND, and 4 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 10,017 VND (bear) to 37,093 VND (bull), the price of 11,500 VND sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC reported revenue of 456B VND in FY2025 versus 1.4T VND in FY2021, a compound −23.8%/yr. Reported net income was 639B VND in FY2025, compounding +19.9%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 3.0T VND · P/E ratio 3.5 · P/S ratio 4.90 · EPS (TTM) 3,285 VND · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin 140% · Return on equity 26.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 65% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at 16%, HDC screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 10,017 VND Fair Value 13,298 VND Bull 37,093 VND
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (2,412 VND per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings 19,123 VND 24,906 VND 34,214 VND 77
Gordon GGM 29.11 VND 31.11 VND 34.06 VND 69
Graham-Dodd 18,918 VND 23,122 VND 26,012 VND 67
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings 19,123 VND 24,906 VND 34,214 VND 77
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 18,918 VND 23,122 VND 26,012 VND 67
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 29.11 VND 31.11 VND 34.06 VND 69
DDM Multi-Stage 29.11 VND 33.69 VND 39.41 VND 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple 43,818 VND 58,423 VND 73,029 VND 63
P/S Multiple 2,981 VND 3,974 VND 4,968 VND 58
P/B Multiple 35,471 VND 47,295 VND 59,119 VND 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 6,289 VND 8,428 VND 12,578 VND 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income 14,498 VND 20,788 VND 89,114 VND 64
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 30,941 VND 44,202 VND 57,462 VND 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 30/100

Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 19

Profitability 50
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 33
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 53
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 53
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 49
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 9
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 24/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−16.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−29.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in VND (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in VND: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−22.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−22.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.38% → −2%
2025 sits 353% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 578 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +16% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 26% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 113% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 44% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 151% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.42× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 3.5× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 1.05× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 5.00× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 39.3× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)54 · sector 48
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)100 · sector 11
HEALTH (low debt)79 · sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)1 · sector 55

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited 0016 HK$109.10 HK$147.78 +35%
China Resources Land Limited 1109 HK$29.62 HK$74.05 +150%
Vinhomes Joint Stock Company VHM 68,200 VND 112,796 VND +65%
CK Asset Holdings 1113 HK$46.44 HK$71.69 +54%
Hongkong Land Holdings H78 $8.74 $1.52 −83%
DLF Limited DLF ₹675.00 ₹167.21 −75%
China Overseas Land & Investment Limited 0688 HK$12.43 HK$22.35 +80%
Lodha Developers Limited LODHA ₹1,163 ₹275.95 −76%
Poly Developments and Holdings 600048 ¥5.64 ¥14.10 +150%
CTP N.V CTPNV €13.58 €10.30 −24%

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Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC · Fair Value
13,298 VND +14%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HDC

Frequently asked questions

Is Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC (HDC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 13,298 VND versus a price of 11,500 VND, about +16% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HDC?
Our model-based fair value for Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC is 13,298 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 11,500 VND.
What is the quality score of HDC?
Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC (HDC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 13,298 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario 10,017 VND, optimistic scenario 37,093 VND. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 13,298 VND, about +16% upside versus a price of 11,500 VND (undervalued). Cautious scenario 10,017 VND, optimistic scenario 37,093 VND. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC (HDC)?
Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 606B VND (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC pay a dividend?
Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.03% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC (HDC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC it is 13,298 VND per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 11,500 VND. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HDC trades below its calculated fair value: price 11,500 VND, fair value 13,298 VND, a gap of about +16% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HDC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (11,500 VND); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (13,298 VND). For Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC the two are 1,798 VND per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC worth?
The market values Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC at about 3.0T VND (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 11,500 VND; our models calculate a fair value of 13,298 VND per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HDC?
Our models span a range for Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC: cautious scenario 10,017 VND, base 13,298 VND, optimistic 37,093 VND per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 11,500 VND). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HDC?
Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 13,298 VND is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 5.0, EV/EBITDA 39.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC (HDC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 26.0%, debt of 0.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HDC from its 52-week high?
Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC trades at 11,500 VND, about 65% below its 52-week high of 32,609 VND and 6% above the low of 10,900 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 13,298 VND is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, Vinhomes Joint Stock Company, CK Asset Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 11,500 VND, calculated fair value 13,298 VND (+16%), Quality Score 30/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HDC calculated?
We run Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 13,298 VND, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC currently trades 16 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC (HDC)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 11,500 VND. Our model-based fair value is 13,298 VND, about +16% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC right now?
The model range is unusually wide (10,017 VND to 37,093 VND). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Key figures of Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC

How large is the market capitalisation of Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC (HDC)?
The market capitalisation of Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC is 3.0T VND. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC (HDC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC is 4.90 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC (HDC)?
Earnings per share at Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC are 3,285 VND (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC (HDC)?
The dividend yield of Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC is 0.0% (payout 0.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC (HDC)?
The net margin of Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC is 140% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC (HDC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC is 26.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC (HDC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC is 5.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC (HDC)?
The operating margin of Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC is 43.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC (HDC)?
Revenue at Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC is growing +151% versus a year earlier (3y avg −29.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC (HDC)?
Earnings per share at Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC are growing +322% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC (HDC) generate?
The free cash flow of Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC is −1.0T VND (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC (HDC) carry?
The net debt of Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC is 1.7T VND (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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