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Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft stock €1.17, price €1.03, upside +14.0%, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 12 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Industrials DE · ISIN DE0007314007

HD Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft logo Thin data Nov 13, 2026

Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft

HDD · XETRA

Solid company, but only slightly cheap (12% below fair value) and falling price: meets 1 of 3 rules.

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Fair value €1.17 · Undervalued 
Low debt 
Even on cautious assumptions the value is 5% above the price (€1.08). 
Quality 51/100 
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +3.7 %/yr in EUR) 
Loss over the last twelve months · -0.3% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2026 0.7% 
Mixed vs. peers (5/12) 
Falling price (downtrend) 
Negative free cash flow 
Narrow moat 23/100 · thin data
Thin data 
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€3.07 €0.8540 Fair Value €1.17 Sep 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €0.8540 – €3.07 · fair‑value band €1.08 – €1.23 · the €1.03 price screens below the €1.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Heidelberger Druckmaschinen, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, sells, and deals in printing presses and other print media industry products in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and the Americas.

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The company operates through Print Solutions, Packaging Solutions, and Technology Solutions segments.

It offers printing machines, including digital, computer-to-plate, offset, narrow web, screen, and inline-flexo printing, as well as remarketed equipment; and finishing equipment comprising cutting, die-cutting and embossing, folding, inspection, folding carton gluing, and hot foil stamping.

The company also provides parts and labor products, such as service parts and repair, maintenance, upgrades, color management, and installation and relocation; training and consulting services; and remote services.

In addition, it offers financial and investment planning services, and consumables for prepress and postpress. Further, the company provides software solutions.

It serves the packaging, label, and commercial printing; e-mobility; and robotics and power electronics industries, as well as digital transformation and production solutions.

The company was formerly known as Schnellpressenfabrik AG Heidelberg and changed its name to Heidelberger Druckmaschinen in 1967. Heidelberger Druckmaschinen was founded in 1850 and is based in Heidelberg, Germany.

Stock analysis

Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD) currently trades at €1.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €1.17, implying the stock looks roughly 12% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €2.12 per share, and 8 of the 12 models we run sit above the €1.03 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €0.7500, and 4 of the 12 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: €1.08 (bear) to €1.23 (bull), the price of €1.03 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2010: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2010.

Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft reported revenue of €2.3B in FY2026 versus €2.2B in FY2022, a compound +1.2%/yr. Reported net income was €15.0M in FY2026, compounding −17.9%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap €308M Small · P/S ratio 0.15 · EPS (TTM) €−0.0200 · Net margin −0.3% · Return on equity −1.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin 1.5% · Revenue (TTM) €2.2B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 23 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at 14%, HDD screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €1.08 Fair Value €1.17 Bull €1.23
Price €1.03 · Upside +14.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPV €1.08 €1.17 €1.23 74
ROIC Compounder €1.08 €1.17 €1.23 72
Residual Income €1.17 €1.19 €1.24 71
All 12 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €0.3400 €0.4100 €0.4600 67
EPV €1.08 €1.17 €1.23 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple €0.7800 €1.04 €1.29 63
P/S Multiple €0.6300 €0.8400 €1.05 58
P/B Multiple €1.47 €1.96 €2.45 55
EV/EBIT €2.23 €2.92 €3.62 66
EV/EBITDA €4.23 €5.60 €6.97 67
EV/Revenue €1.63 €2.27 €2.91 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €0.5600 €0.7500 €1.12 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income €1.17 €1.19 €1.24 71
ROIC Compounder €1.08 €1.17 €1.23 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €0.5500 €0.7800 €1.02 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 35
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 38
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 33
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 34
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 93
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 30
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 10
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 0
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 91
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Spin-off in 2010: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2010.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.9% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.3%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−14.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−14.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Per share before 2010divided by the spin-off factor 1.5854
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−14.3% vs −8.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 2%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 839 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside +14.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 0.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) −0.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 1.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −13.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.03× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.54× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 0.14× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 2.3× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 15.40× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)52 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 31
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)99 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 28

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Cummins Inc CMI $455.40 $359.36 −21% vs HDD
SIE SIE €279.40 €192.83 −31% vs HDD
Illinois Tool Works Inc ITW $286.75 $154.30 −46% vs HDD
Sandvik AB SAND kr 362.10 kr 194.33 −46% vs HDD
AMETEK, Inc AME $241.04 $125.74 −48% vs HDD
Parker-Hannifin Corporation PH $957.98 $492.92 −49% vs HDD
Emerson Electric Co EMR $166.92 $79.99 −52% vs HDD
Rockwell Automation, Inc ROK $404.20 $186.75 −54% vs HDD
Eaton Corporation ETN $359.04 $156.90 −56% vs HDD
GE Vernova Inc GEV $818.49 $211.78 −74% vs HDD

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HDD

Frequently asked questions

Is Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €1.17 versus a price of €1.03, about +14% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HDD?
Our model-based fair value for Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft is €1.17 (as of Nov 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €1.03.
What is the quality score of HDD?
Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €1.17 (as of Nov 13, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario €1.08, optimistic scenario €1.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €1.17, about +14% upside versus a price of €1.03 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €1.08, optimistic scenario €1.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD)?
Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €2.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft it is €1.17 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026), against a price of €1.03. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models in 5 families (Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 13, 2026, HDD trades below its calculated fair value: price €1.03, fair value €1.17, a gap of about +14% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HDD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€1.03); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€1.17). For Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft the two are €0.1440 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft worth?
The market values Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft at about €308M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 13, 2026). Per share that is €1.03; our models calculate a fair value of €1.17 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HDD?
Our models span a range for Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft: cautious scenario €1.08, base €1.17, optimistic €1.23 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026, price €1.03). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of HDD?
The PEG ratio of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft is 15.40 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 13, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (as of Nov 13, 2026): return on equity −1.1%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HDD from its 52-week high?
Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft trades at €1.03, about 50% below its 52-week high of €2.06 and at the low of €1.03 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €1.17 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value SIE, GE Vernova Inc, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 13, 2026: price €1.03, calculated fair value €1.17 (+14%), Quality Score 51/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HDD calculated?
We run Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft through 12 models from 5 families: Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €1.17 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft currently trades 12% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was €1.03. Our model-based fair value is €1.17, about +14% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€1.08). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The models converge in a tight band (€1.08 to €1.23), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD) come from?
Earnings per share at Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft grew −7.4 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −2.8 %, EBIT margin −2.9 %, tax rate −7.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +6.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft

How large is the market capitalisation of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD)?
The market capitalisation of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft is €308M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft is 0.15 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD)?
Earnings per share at Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft are €−0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD)?
The net margin of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft is −0.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft is −1.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft is 3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD)?
The operating margin of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft is 1.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD)?
Revenue at Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft is growing −13.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD)?
Earnings per share at Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft are growing +80.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD) generate?
The free cash flow of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft is −€29.0M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD) hold?
Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft holds more cash than debt, €40.0M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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