Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft €1.04, price €1.41, upside -26.1%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €0.8540 – €3.07 · fair‑value band €0.7800 – €1.24 · the €1.41 price screens above the €1.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Heidelberger Druckmaschinen, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, sells, and deals in printing presses and other print media industry products in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and the Americas. The company operates through Print Solutions, Packaging Solutions, and Technology Solutions segments.
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Heidelberger Druckmaschinen, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, sells, and deals in printing presses and other print media industry products in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and the Americas. The company operates through Print Solutions, Packaging Solutions, and Technology Solutions segments. It offers printing machines, including digital, computer-to-plate, offset, narrow web, screen, and inline-flexo printing, as well as remarketed equipment; and finishing equipment comprising cutting, die-cutting and embossing, folding, inspection, folding carton gluing, and hot foil stamping. The company also provides parts and labor products, such as service parts and repair, maintenance, upgrades, color management, and installation and relocation; training and consulting services; and remote services. In addition, it offers financial and investment planning services, and consumables for prepress and postpress. Further, the company provides software solutions. It serves the packaging, label, and commercial printing; e-mobility; and robotics and power electronics industries, as well as digital transformation and production solutions. The company was formerly known as Schnellpressenfabrik AG Heidelberg and changed its name to Heidelberger Druckmaschinen in 1967. Heidelberger Druckmaschinen was founded in 1850 and is based in Heidelberg, Germany.
Stock analysis
Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD) currently trades at €1.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €1.04, implying the stock looks roughly 35.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €2.08 per share, and 4 of the 13 models we run sit above the €1.41 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €0.4100, and 9 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €0.7800 (bear) to €1.24 (bull), the price of €1.41 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft reported revenue of €2.3B in FY2026 versus €2.2B in FY2022, a compound +1.2%/yr. Reported net income was €15.0M in FY2026, compounding −17.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap €422M · P/E ratio 28.2 · P/S ratio 0.18 · EPS (TTM) €0.0500 · Net margin 0.7% · Return on equity 2.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.8% · Operating margin −0.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −26%, HDD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €0.7800Fair Value €1.04Bull €1.24
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0249 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.34/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.9% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−14.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−14.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−14.3% vs −8.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Compare Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 809 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside−26.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2.7% · Below median
Return on assets1.5% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−0.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−11.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)28.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.74× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.18× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA3.0× · Cheapest 25%
PEG15.40× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 24
PAST (return on equity)11· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 25
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
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Is Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €1.04 versus a price of €1.41, about −26% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HDD?
Our model-based fair value for Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft is €1.04 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €1.41.
What is the quality score of HDD?
Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €1.04 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario €0.7800, optimistic scenario €1.24. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €1.04, about −26% upside versus a price of €1.41 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €0.7800, optimistic scenario €1.24. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD)?
Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €2.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft it is €1.04 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of €1.41. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, HDD trades above its calculated fair value: price €1.41, fair value €1.04, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HDD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€1.41); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€1.04). For Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft the two are €0.3680 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft worth?
The market values Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft at about €422M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is €1.41; our models calculate a fair value of €1.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HDD?
Our models span a range for Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft: cautious scenario €0.7800, base €1.04, optimistic €1.24 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price €1.41). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HDD?
Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.2 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €1.04 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 15.4, P/B 0.7, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 3.0.
What is the PEG ratio of HDD?
The PEG ratio of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft is 15.40 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 2.7%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HDD from its 52-week high?
Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft trades at €1.41, about 41% below its 52-week high of €2.38 and 8% above the low of €1.30 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €1.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price €1.41, calculated fair value €1.04 (−26%), Quality Score 51/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HDD calculated?
We run Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €1.04, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was €1.41. Our model-based fair value is €1.04, about −26% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€1.24). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD) come from?
Earnings per share at Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft grew −7.4 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −2.8 %, EBIT margin −2.9 %, tax rate −7.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +6.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft
How large is the market capitalisation of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD)?
The market capitalisation of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft is €422M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft is 0.18 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD)?
Earnings per share at Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft are €0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD)?
The net margin of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft is 0.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft is 3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD)?
The operating margin of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft is −0.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD)?
Revenue at Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft is growing −11.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD)?
Earnings per share at Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft are growing +80.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD) generate?
The free cash flow of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft is −€29.0M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD) hold?
Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft holds more cash than debt, €40.0M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Sep 27, 2026