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Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc (HE) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · US · Market cap $2.3B

HE Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc logo Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc HE · US
Price$12.40
Fair Value$7.18
Upside-42.1%
Quality38/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 4.1% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (4/14)
Narrow moat 38/100
Evidence: High Range $6.27 – $12.08 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026

From 22 valuation models · updated 25 days ago

Share price −8.4% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 42% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($12.08). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • A fairly wide model range ($6.27 to $12.08) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$41.60 $7.74 Fair Value $7.18 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $7.74 – $41.60 · fair‑value band $6.27 – $12.08 · the $12.40 price screens above the $7.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

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Analysis

Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc (HE) currently trades at $12.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.18, implying the stock looks roughly 42.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc generated revenue of $3.1B at a net margin of 4.1%. Revenue grew 0.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.0%. Net debt stands at $2.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $6.27 (bear case) to $12.08 (bull case); at $12.40, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -42%, HE screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income $7.55 $7.99 $8.84 76
Rev-Margin DCF $0.7200 $6.21 $11.90 74
ROIC Compounder $2.70 $4.32 $5.71 72
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
5Y Revenue Exit $0.7200 $6.25 $13.10 39
5Y EBITDA Exit $5.17 $14.06 $24.00 41
5Y P/E Exit $3.00 $7.08 38
10Y Revenue Exit $2.70 $8.27 36
10Y EBITDA Exit $1.29 $7.83 $15.95 37
10Y P/E Exit $0.5700 $4.03 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $4.97 $10.80 $13.74 54
PEG = 1.0 $1.69 $2.41 $3.14 46
EPV $2.70 $4.32 $5.71 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.1000 $0.1500 $0.2000 70
DDM Multi-Stage $0.1000 $0.1400 $0.1800 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple $9.88 $13.17 $16.46 63
P/S Multiple $9.33 $12.44 $15.54 58
P/B Multiple $9.33 $12.44 $15.54 55
EV/EBIT $7.78 $12.89 $18.00 53
EV/EBITDA $13.96 $21.14 $28.31 54
EV/Revenue $4.85 $10.17 $15.48 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.65 $6.23 $9.30 50
Growth DCF
Rev-Margin DCF $0.7200 $6.21 $11.90 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income $7.55 $7.99 $8.84 76
ROIC Compounder $2.70 $4.32 $5.71 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $7.38 $10.55 $13.71 68

Widest divergence: Multiples ($12.44) versus Dividend Discount ($0.1400). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $3.1B
Revenue growth (YoY) +0.3%
Net margin 4.1%
Return on equity 8.0%
Free cash flow $49.9M FY2025
P/E ratio 18.3
More key figures
Operating margin 7.3%
EPS (TTM) $0.7400
EPS growth (YoY) +17.6%
Net debt $2.0B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47

Profitability 22
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 69
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 43
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 18
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 83
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 81
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 31
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 38
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. together with its subsidiaries, engages in the electric utility business. The company engages in the production, purchase, transmission, distribution, and sale of electricity in the islands of Oahu; Hawaii; and Maui, Lanai, and Molokai; and renewable energy sources and potential sources include wind, solar, photovoltaic, …

Full company description

Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. together with its subsidiaries, engages in the electric utility business. The company engages in the production, purchase, transmission, distribution, and sale of electricity in the islands of Oahu; Hawaii; and Maui, Lanai, and Molokai; and renewable energy sources and potential sources include wind, solar, photovoltaic, geothermal, wave, hydroelectric, municipal waste, and other biofuels. It also invests in non-regulated renewable energy and sustainable infrastructure in the State of Hawaii. In addition, the company serves suburban communities, resorts, the United States Armed Forces installations, and agricultural operations. Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. was founded in 1891 and is headquartered in Honolulu, Hawaii.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc reported revenue of $3.1B in FY2025 versus $2.9B in FY2021, a compound +2.0%/yr. Reported net income was $126M in FY2025, compounding −15.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 46/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$3.1B
Latest YoY
−4.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−3.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+3.7%
Avg. growth/yr (40Y)
+4.0%
Revenue +2.0%/yr
FY21 $2.9B
FY22 $3.4B
FY23 $3.3B
FY24 $3.2B
FY25 $3.1B
Net income −15.4%/yr
FY21 $246M
FY22 $241M
FY23 $199M
FY24 −$1.4B
FY25 $126M

HE screens 42% overvalued. Compare with NextEra Energy, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HE

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Utilities - Regulated Electric · 154 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −42% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 0% · Below median
Debt / equity 1.42× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 18.3× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.45× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.76× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 46.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 6.9× · Cheaper than median
PEG 2.32× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 7
FUTURE 2 · sector 32
PAST 32 · sector 39
HEALTH 29 · sector 54
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 56

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
NextEra Energy, Inc NEE $88.80 $32.94 -63%
The Southern Company SO $95.61 $61.06 -36%
Duke Energy Corporation DUK $126.11 $97.11 -23%
National Grid plc NGG 61,175 ARS 44,377 ARS -27%
American Electric Power Company AEP $132.50 $79.33 -40%
Dominion Energy, Inc D $70.08 $46.92 -33%
NTPC Limited NTPC ₹341.85 ₹377.16 +10%
CEZ, a. s. CEZ 232.40 PLN 159.33 PLN -31%
Power Grid Corporation POWERGRID ₹283.55 ₹252.77 -11%
China National Nuclear Power Co 601985 ¥8.91 ¥7.69 -14%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc (HE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 15, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.18 versus a price of $12.40, about −42% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HE?
Our model-based fair value for Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc is $7.18 (as of Jul 15, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $12.40.
What is the quality score of HE?
Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc (HE)?
Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.1B (latest available figure, as of Jul 15, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of HE?
The net profit margin of Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc is about 4.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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