Headlam Group (HEAD) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · GB · Market cap 9.5M GBX
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from £0.9100 to £0.0951 (−89.5%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −41.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 19% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range (£0.0634 to £0.1321) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.0359 – £3.20 · fair‑value band £0.0634 – £0.1321 · the £0.0800 price screens below the £0.0951 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Headlam Group (HEAD) currently trades at £0.0800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.0951, implying the stock looks roughly 18.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Headlam Group generated revenue of £499M at a net margin of -16.4%. Revenue declined 5.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -43.1%. Net debt stands at £99.6M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £0.0634 (bear case) to £0.1321 (bull case); at £0.0800, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at 19%, HEAD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (£0.9200) versus Dividend Discount (£0.5600). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 11
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Headlam Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the sale, marketing, supply, and distribution of floorcovering and other ancillary products in the United Kingdom and Continental Europe. The company offers its products to independent and multiple retailers, small and large contractors, and housebuilders.
Full company description
Headlam Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the sale, marketing, supply, and distribution of floorcovering and other ancillary products in the United Kingdom and Continental Europe. The company offers its products to independent and multiple retailers, small and large contractors, and housebuilders. Headlam Group plc was incorporated in 1948 and is based in Birmingham, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Headlam Group reported revenue of £499M in FY2025 versus £667M in FY2021, a compound −7.0%/yr. Reported net income was −£81.9M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances · 311 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midea Group 000333 | ¥82.71 | ¥107.22 | +30% |
| Gree Electric Appliances, Inc 000651 | ¥38.25 | ¥88.02 | +130% |
| Haier Smart Home Co 600690 | ¥21.46 | ¥36.04 | +68% |
| King Slide Works Co 2059 | 8,655 TWD | 1,917 TWD | -78% |
| Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co 603268 | ¥155.59 | ¥38.95 | -75% |
| SharkNinja, Inc SN | $154.53 | $89.07 | -42% |
| Hisense Home Appliances Group 000921 | ¥26.33 | ¥48.03 | +82% |
| Zhejiang Supor Co 002032 | ¥43.85 | ¥44.84 | +2% |
| COWAY Co 021240 | 96,700 KRW | 112,530 KRW | +16% |
| Ecovacs Robotics Co 603486 | ¥50.13 | ¥54.11 | +8% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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