Headlam Group (HEAD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 1, 2026: fair value of Headlam Group £0.09, price £0.11, upside -13.7%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.0500 – £4.47 · fair‑value band £0.0570 – £0.1275 · the £0.1050 price screens above the £0.0906 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Headlam Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the sale, marketing, supply, and distribution of floorcovering and other ancillary products in the United Kingdom and Continental Europe. The company offers its products to independent and multiple retailers, small and large contractors, and housebuilders.
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Headlam Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the sale, marketing, supply, and distribution of floorcovering and other ancillary products in the United Kingdom and Continental Europe. The company offers its products to independent and multiple retailers, small and large contractors, and housebuilders. Headlam Group plc was incorporated in 1948 and is based in Birmingham, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Headlam Group (HEAD) currently trades at £0.1050, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.0906, implying the stock looks roughly 15.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 3 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: £0.0570 (bear) to £0.1275 (bull), the price of £0.1050 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Headlam Group reported revenue of £499M in FY2025 versus £667M in FY2021, a compound −7.0%/yr. Reported net income was −£81.9M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 9.5M GBX · EPS (TTM) £−0.8100 · Net margin −16.4% · Return on equity −43.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.2% · Operating margin −4.9% · Revenue (TTM) £499M · Revenue growth (YoY) −5.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 85% below its 52-week high and 110% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at −14%, HEAD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £0.0570Fair Value £0.0906Bull £0.1275
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−15.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.7% a year
Revenue growth 39 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
0.8% (2020) → −6.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances · 317 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Headlam Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HEAD
Frequently asked questions
Is Headlam Group (HEAD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £0.0906 versus the last price from Sep 1, 2026 of £0.1050, about −14% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HEAD?
Our model-based fair value for Headlam Group is £0.0906 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 1, 2026): £0.1050.
What is the quality score of HEAD?
Headlam Group has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Headlam Group (HEAD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £0.0906 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario £0.0570, optimistic scenario £0.1275. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Headlam Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £0.0906, about −14% upside versus the last price from Sep 1, 2026 of £0.1050 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £0.0570, optimistic scenario £0.1275. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Headlam Group (HEAD)?
Headlam Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £499M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Headlam Group (HEAD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Headlam Group it is £0.0906 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of £0.1050. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Headlam Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, HEAD trades above its calculated fair value: price £0.1050, fair value £0.0906, a gap of about −14% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HEAD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£0.1050); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£0.0906). For Headlam Group the two are £0.0144 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Headlam Group worth?
The market values Headlam Group at about 9.5M GBX (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is £0.1050; our models calculate a fair value of £0.0906 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HEAD?
Our models span a range for Headlam Group: cautious scenario £0.0570, base £0.0906, optimistic £0.1275 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price £0.1050). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Headlam Group (HEAD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Headlam Group (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −43.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HEAD from its 52-week high?
Headlam Group trades at £0.1050, about 85% below its 52-week high of £0.7220 and 110% above the low of £0.0500 (as of Sep 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £0.0906 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Headlam Group?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Inc, Haier Smart Home Co, King Slide Works Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Headlam Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price £0.1050, calculated fair value £0.0906 (−14%), Quality Score 41/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HEAD calculated?
We run Headlam Group through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £0.0906, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Headlam Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Headlam Group (HEAD)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 1, 2026 and stands at £0.1050. Our model-based fair value is £0.0906, about −14% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Headlam Group right now?
A fairly wide model range (£0.0570 to £0.1275) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Headlam Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Headlam Group (HEAD)?
The market capitalisation of Headlam Group is 9.5M GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Headlam Group (HEAD)?
Earnings per share at Headlam Group are £−0.8100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Headlam Group (HEAD)?
The net margin of Headlam Group is −16.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Headlam Group (HEAD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Headlam Group is −43.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Headlam Group (HEAD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Headlam Group is 0.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Headlam Group (HEAD)?
The operating margin of Headlam Group is −4.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Headlam Group (HEAD)?
Revenue at Headlam Group is growing −5.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Headlam Group (HEAD)?
Earnings per share at Headlam Group are growing −74.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Headlam Group (HEAD) generate?
The free cash flow of Headlam Group is −49.6M GBX (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Headlam Group (HEAD) carry?
The net debt of Headlam Group is 99.6M GBX (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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