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HelloFresh SE (HELFY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of HelloFresh SE $1.50, price $0.63, upside +137.3%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Consumer Cyclical · US · ISIN DE000A161408

HS HelloFresh SE logo Some data Sep 24, 2026

HelloFresh SE

HELFY · US

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value $1.50 · Strongly undervalued (+137.3%)
✓Quality 61/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +11.6 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -0.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 23/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $0.8645 to $2.74

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$29.60 $0.5960 Fair Value $1.50 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.5960 – $29.60 · fair‑value band $0.8645 – $2.74 · the $0.6319 price screens below the $1.50 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

HelloFresh SE, together with its subsidiaries, operates as meal kit provider in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company provides meal kits; add-on products including soups, desserts, bakery products, salads, and surcharge products; ready-to-eat meals; and other products.

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HelloFresh SE, together with its subsidiaries, operates as meal kit provider in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company provides meal kits; add-on products including soups, desserts, bakery products, salads, and surcharge products; ready-to-eat meals; and other products. It operates under the HelloFresh, Chefs Plate, Good Chop, Pets Table, EveryPlate, Factor, Green Chef, and YouFoodz brand names. HelloFresh SE was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Berlin, Germany.

Stock analysis

HelloFresh SE (HELFY) currently trades at $0.6319, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.50, implying the stock looks roughly 57.9% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $10.93 per share, and 11 of the 11 models we run sit above the $0.6319 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.8800, and 0 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $0.8645 (bear) to $2.74 (bull), the price of $0.6319 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

HelloFresh SE reported revenue of €6.5B in FY2025 versus €6.0B in FY2021, a compound +2.0%/yr. Reported net income was −€88.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $636M · P/S ratio 0.10 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0600 · Net margin −1.4% · Return on equity −3.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.8% · Operating margin −3.5% · Revenue (TTM) €6.5B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 72% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 137%, HELFY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.8645 Fair Value $1.50 Bull $2.74
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $6.61 $9.61 $18.57 72
Growth DCF $6.19 $10.65 $17.65 72
Owner Earnings $5.49 $11.30 $22.07 68
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $6.61 $9.61 $18.57 72
Owner Earnings $5.49 $11.30 $22.07 68
5Y Revenue Exit $5.02 $8.28 $15.09 66
5Y EBITDA Exit $6.37 $11.02 $20.12 68
10Y Revenue Exit $5.43 $10.93 $14.18 63
10Y EBITDA Exit $6.48 $13.59 $25.77 61
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $6.16 $8.18 $10.21 67
EV/Revenue $3.92 $5.57 $7.22 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.6600 $0.8800 $1.32 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $6.19 $10.65 $17.65 72
Rev-Margin DCF $5.51 $9.46 $17.76 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15

Profitability 42
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 40
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 40
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 65
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 0
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−15.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +35.8% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+84.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
11.4% (2020) → −0.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ $301.81 $233.22 −23%
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HelloFresh SE · Fair Value
$1.50 +58%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HelloFresh SE Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HELFY

Frequently asked questions

Is HelloFresh SE (HELFY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.50 versus a price of $0.6319, about +137% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HELFY?
Our model-based fair value for HelloFresh SE is $1.50 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.6319.
What is the quality score of HELFY?
HelloFresh SE has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HelloFresh SE (HELFY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.50 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.8645, optimistic scenario $2.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HelloFresh SE stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.50, about +137% upside versus a price of $0.6319 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.8645, optimistic scenario $2.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HelloFresh SE (HELFY)?
HelloFresh SE reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €6.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of HelloFresh SE (HELFY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HelloFresh SE it is $1.50 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.6319. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HelloFresh SE stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HELFY trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.6319, fair value $1.50, a gap of about +137% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HELFY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.6319); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.50). For HelloFresh SE the two are $0.8675 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HelloFresh SE worth?
The market values HelloFresh SE at about $636M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.6319; our models calculate a fair value of $1.50 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HELFY?
Our models span a range for HelloFresh SE: cautious scenario $0.8645, base $1.50, optimistic $2.74 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.6319). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is HELFY from its 52-week high?
HelloFresh SE trades at $0.6319, about 72% below its 52-week high of $2.23 and 6% above the low of $0.5960 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.50 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HelloFresh SE?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HelloFresh SE stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.6319, calculated fair value $1.50 (+137%), Quality Score 61/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HELFY calculated?
We run HelloFresh SE through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.50, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. HelloFresh SE currently trades 58 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HelloFresh SE (HELFY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.6319. Our model-based fair value is $1.50, about +137% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HelloFresh SE right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.8645). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($0.8645 to $2.74). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of HelloFresh SE

How large is the market capitalisation of HelloFresh SE (HELFY)?
The market capitalisation of HelloFresh SE is $636M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HelloFresh SE (HELFY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HelloFresh SE is 0.10 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HelloFresh SE (HELFY)?
Earnings per share at HelloFresh SE are $−0.0600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of HelloFresh SE (HELFY)?
The net margin of HelloFresh SE is −1.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HelloFresh SE (HELFY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HelloFresh SE is −3.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HelloFresh SE (HELFY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HelloFresh SE is 4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HelloFresh SE (HELFY)?
The operating margin of HelloFresh SE is −3.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HelloFresh SE (HELFY)?
Revenue at HelloFresh SE is growing −13.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HelloFresh SE (HELFY)?
Earnings per share at HelloFresh SE are growing +55.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does HelloFresh SE (HELFY) generate?
The free cash flow of HelloFresh SE is €215M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does HelloFresh SE (HELFY) carry?
The net debt of HelloFresh SE is €490M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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