Hengdeli Holdings Ltd (HENGY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Hengdeli Holdings Ltd $1.33, price $1.15, upside +15.7%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.3600 – $1.15 · fair‑value band $1.28 – $1.41 · the $1.15 price screens below the $1.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Hengdeli Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacturing and sale of accessories for watches, jewellery, cosmetics, and mobile phones in the Mainland China and Hong Kong.
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Hengdeli Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacturing and sale of accessories for watches, jewellery, cosmetics, and mobile phones in the Mainland China and Hong Kong. The company is involved in designing and producing packaging products, commercial space; providing decoration services, as well as international commodity trading of iron ore, thermal coal, and coking coal. It also offers consuming service and supply chain services. Hengdeli Holdings Limited was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Tsim Sha Tsui, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR (HENGY) currently trades at $1.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.33, implying the stock looks roughly 13.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $1.98 per share, and 4 of the 4 models we run sit above the $1.15 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $1.20, and 0 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $1.28 (bear) to $1.41 (bull), the price of $1.15 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR reported revenue of 631M CNY in FY2025 versus 878M CNY in FY2021, a compound −7.9%/yr. Reported net income was −26.2M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $203M · P/S ratio 0.24 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0200 · Net margin −4.1% · Return on equity −0.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.5% · Operating margin −15.7% · Revenue (TTM) 649M CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 211% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 16%, HENGY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.28Fair Value $1.33Bull $1.41
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−39.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−15.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −26.3% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−28.4% (2020) → −17.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 361 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−1.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−1.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−4.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−15.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−27.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
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Is Hengdeli Holdings Ltd (HENGY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.33 versus a price of $1.15, about +16% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HENGY?
Our model-based fair value for Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR is $1.33 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.15.
What is the quality score of HENGY?
Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hengdeli Holdings Ltd (HENGY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.33 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.28, optimistic scenario $1.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.33, about +16% upside versus a price of $1.15 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $1.28, optimistic scenario $1.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hengdeli Holdings Ltd (HENGY)?
Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 649M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hengdeli Holdings Ltd (HENGY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -12.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HENGY use?
Our models discount Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.11, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hengdeli Holdings Ltd (HENGY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR grew -12.3 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hengdeli Holdings Ltd (HENGY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hengdeli Holdings Ltd (HENGY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.90 %: that much free cash flow Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hengdeli Holdings Ltd (HENGY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR it is $1.33 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $1.15. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HENGY trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.15, fair value $1.33, a gap of about +16% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HENGY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.33). For Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR the two are $0.1800 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR at about $203M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $1.15; our models calculate a fair value of $1.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HENGY?
Our models span a range for Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $1.28, base $1.33, optimistic $1.41 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $1.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hengdeli Holdings Ltd (HENGY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −0.8%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HENGY from its 52-week high?
Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR trades at $1.15, at its 52-week high of $1.15 and 211% above the low of $0.3700 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Swire Pacific Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $1.15, calculated fair value $1.33 (+16%), Quality Score 61/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HENGY calculated?
We run Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.33, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR currently trades 14 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hengdeli Holdings Ltd (HENGY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $1.15. Our model-based fair value is $1.33, about +16% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1.28). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The models converge in a tight band ($1.28 to $1.41), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Hengdeli Holdings Ltd (HENGY)?
The market capitalisation of Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR is $203M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hengdeli Holdings Ltd (HENGY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR is 0.24 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hengdeli Holdings Ltd (HENGY)?
Earnings per share at Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR are $−0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Hengdeli Holdings Ltd (HENGY)?
The net margin of Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR is −4.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hengdeli Holdings Ltd (HENGY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR is −0.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hengdeli Holdings Ltd (HENGY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR is −1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hengdeli Holdings Ltd (HENGY)?
The operating margin of Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR is −15.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hengdeli Holdings Ltd (HENGY)?
Revenue at Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR is growing −27.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −15.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hengdeli Holdings Ltd (HENGY)?
Earnings per share at Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR are growing −8.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Hengdeli Holdings Ltd (HENGY) hold?
Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ADR holds more cash than debt, 1.3B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026