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Hera S.p.A (HER) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · IT · Market cap €5.6B

HS Hera S.p.A HER · MI
Price€3.87
Fair Value€3.35
Upside-13.4%
Quality51/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 3.8% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
4.26% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (8/15)
Moderate moat 47/100
Evidence: High Range €2.51 – €7.07 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated 24 days ago

Share price +1.4% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 13% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide (€2.51 to €7.07). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€4.43 €1.77 Fair Value €3.35 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €1.77 – €4.43 · fair‑value band €2.51 – €7.07 · the €3.87 price screens above the €3.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

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Analysis

Hera S.p.A (HER) currently trades at €3.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €3.35, implying the stock looks roughly 13.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Hera S.p.A generated revenue of €12.1B at a net margin of 3.8%. Revenue declined 18.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.6%. Net debt stands at €4.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €2.51 (bear case) to €7.07 (bull case); at €3.87, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -13%, HER screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €0.1600 €1.62 80
Residual Income €2.48 €2.83 €5.04 76
Rev-Margin DCF €1.39 €4.46 €8.22 74
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €0.2200 €1.80 38
5Y Revenue Exit €1.39 €4.57 €8.87 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €2.43 €6.62 €11.80 41
5Y P/E Exit €0.7100 €3.24 €6.05 38
10Y Revenue Exit €0.4300 €3.13 €7.18 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €1.24 €4.56 €9.48 37
10Y P/E Exit €0.1500 €2.20 €4.97 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €2.14 €8.44 €11.46 54
Lynch FV €2.09 €2.98 €3.87 50
PEG = 1.0 €2.09 €2.98 €3.87 46
EPV €1.63 €2.25 €2.79 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple €4.24 €5.65 €7.07 63
P/S Multiple €4.00 €5.34 €6.67 58
P/B Multiple €3.73 €4.97 €6.21 55
EV/EBIT €3.88 €5.95 €8.02 53
EV/EBITDA €4.81 €7.18 €9.56 54
EV/Revenue €2.70 €4.85 €7.00 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €1.38 €1.85 €2.76 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €0.1600 €1.62 80
Rev-Margin DCF €1.39 €4.46 €8.22 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income €2.48 €2.83 €5.04 76
ROIC Compounder €1.63 €2.25 €2.83 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €3.39 €4.84 €6.29 68

Widest divergence: Multiples (€5.34) versus Growth DCF (€0.1600). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €12.1B
Revenue growth (YoY) -18.2%
Net margin 3.8%
Return on equity 11.6%
Free cash flow €197M FY2025
P/E ratio 11.8
More key figures
Operating margin 7.0%
EPS (TTM) €0.3200
Dividend yield 4.3%
EPS growth (YoY) +0.1%
Net debt €4.0B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50

Profitability 50
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 43
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 41
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 30
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 79
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 84
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 37
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 35
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 66
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Hera S.p.A., a multi-utility company, engages in the waste management, water services, and energy businesses in Italy. It is involved in the sale and distribution of methane and natural gas, as well as in the district heating and heating management business; generation, distribution, and sale of electricity; aqueduct, purification, and sewage services …

Full company description

Hera S.p.A., a multi-utility company, engages in the waste management, water services, and energy businesses in Italy. It is involved in the sale and distribution of methane and natural gas, as well as in the district heating and heating management business; generation, distribution, and sale of electricity; aqueduct, purification, and sewage services related to water cycle; waste collection, treatment, recycling, and disposal services; and provision of public lighting, telecommunications, and other services. The company's water services include activities related to water collection, drinking water treatment, and distribution for civil and industrial applications, as well as sewerage and sewage treatment activities. It also offers environmental services comprising sweeping, waste collection, transport, and recovery and disposal, and technical call center services. The company serves residential and business customers, as well as consumer associations. Hera S.p.A. was founded in 2002 and is based in Bologna, Italy.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Hera S.p.A reported revenue of €13.0B in FY2025 versus €10.6B in FY2021, a compound +5.3%/yr. Reported net income was €464M in FY2025, compounding +8.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€13.0B
Latest YoY
−0.7%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−13.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+12.9%
Avg. growth/yr (23Y)
+11.2%
Revenue +5.3%/yr
FY21 €10.6B
FY22 €19.9B
FY23 €14.9B
FY24 €13.1B
FY25 €13.0B
Net income +8.6%/yr
FY21 €334M
FY22 €255M
FY23 €441M
FY24 €495M
FY25 €464M

HER screens 13% overvalued. Compare with Iberdrola, S.A →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hera S.p.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HER

Peer Group

Utilities - Diversified · 51 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 51 · Above median
Fair Value upside −13% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 12% · Top 25%
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -18% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.3% · Above median
Debt / equity 1.05× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 11.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.59× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.53× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 32.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 7.1× · Cheaper than median
PEG 2.53× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 16 · sector 14
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 46 · sector 33
HEALTH 48 · sector 49
DIVIDEND 85 · sector 80

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Iberdrola, S.A IBE €21.25 €9.34 -56%
Enel SpA ENEL €10.28 €5.83 -43%
Engie SA 1ENGI €26.59 €17.39 -35%
Sempra SRE $93.15 $47.77 -49%
E.ON SE EOAN €19.34 €11.71 -39%
RWE Aktiengesellschaft generates and 1RWE €56.52 €29.64 -48%
ACWA Power Company 2082 198.20 SAR 25.38 SAR -87%
Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. BIPUN C$55.05 C$17.66 -68%
EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG EBK €69.00 €21.11 -69%
EDP, S.A EDP €4.41 €3.81 -14%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Hera S.p.A (HER) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €3.35 versus a price of €3.87, about −13% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HER?
Our model-based fair value for Hera S.p.A is €3.35 (as of Jul 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €3.87.
What is the quality score of HER?
Hera S.p.A has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Hera S.p.A (HER)?
Hera S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €12.1B (latest available figure, as of Jul 17, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of HER?
The net profit margin of Hera S.p.A is about 3.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Hera S.p.A pay a dividend?
Hera S.p.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.26% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 17, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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