Hera S.p.A (HER) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · IT · Market cap €5.6B
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price +1.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 13% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (€2.51 to €7.07). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €1.77 – €4.43 · fair‑value band €2.51 – €7.07 · the €3.87 price screens above the €3.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Hera S.p.A (HER) currently trades at €3.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €3.35, implying the stock looks roughly 13.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Hera S.p.A generated revenue of €12.1B at a net margin of 3.8%. Revenue declined 18.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.6%. Net debt stands at €4.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €2.51 (bear case) to €7.07 (bull case); at €3.87, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -13%, HER screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€5.34) versus Growth DCF (€0.1600). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hera S.p.A., a multi-utility company, engages in the waste management, water services, and energy businesses in Italy. It is involved in the sale and distribution of methane and natural gas, as well as in the district heating and heating management business; generation, distribution, and sale of electricity; aqueduct, purification, and sewage services …
Full company description
Hera S.p.A., a multi-utility company, engages in the waste management, water services, and energy businesses in Italy. It is involved in the sale and distribution of methane and natural gas, as well as in the district heating and heating management business; generation, distribution, and sale of electricity; aqueduct, purification, and sewage services related to water cycle; waste collection, treatment, recycling, and disposal services; and provision of public lighting, telecommunications, and other services. The company's water services include activities related to water collection, drinking water treatment, and distribution for civil and industrial applications, as well as sewerage and sewage treatment activities. It also offers environmental services comprising sweeping, waste collection, transport, and recovery and disposal, and technical call center services. The company serves residential and business customers, as well as consumer associations. Hera S.p.A. was founded in 2002 and is based in Bologna, Italy.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hera S.p.A reported revenue of €13.0B in FY2025 versus €10.6B in FY2021, a compound +5.3%/yr. Reported net income was €464M in FY2025, compounding +8.6%/yr from FY2021.
HER screens 13% overvalued. Compare with Iberdrola, S.A →
Peer Group
Utilities - Diversified · 51 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iberdrola, S.A IBE | €21.25 | €9.34 | -56% |
| Enel SpA ENEL | €10.28 | €5.83 | -43% |
| Engie SA 1ENGI | €26.59 | €17.39 | -35% |
| Sempra SRE | $93.15 | $47.77 | -49% |
| E.ON SE EOAN | €19.34 | €11.71 | -39% |
| RWE Aktiengesellschaft generates and 1RWE | €56.52 | €29.64 | -48% |
| ACWA Power Company 2082 | 198.20 SAR | 25.38 SAR | -87% |
| Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. BIPUN | C$55.05 | C$17.66 | -68% |
| EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG EBK | €69.00 | €21.11 | -69% |
| EDP, S.A EDP | €4.41 | €3.81 | -14% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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