HOMAG Group (HG1) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of HOMAG Group €22.87, price €25.20, upside -9.3%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €20.43 – €47.45 · fair‑value band €17.15 – €28.59 · the €25.20 price screens above the €22.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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HOMAG Group AG, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells machines and solutions for wood processing and timber construction industries worldwide.
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HOMAG Group AG, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells machines and solutions for wood processing and timber construction industries worldwide. The company offers machine products for drilling, doweling, milling, and setting fittings; edge banders and tenoners; panel dividing, multi rip, and cross-cut saw; panel and board storage systems; home construction; automation; case clamps; packaging machinery; and buffer and collating. It also provides wild belt sander and lacquering machines for surfaces; planing, profiling, and moulding machines; and CNC machining and processing centers, as well as CNC routers for woodworking. In addition, the company offers software for shop solutions, order creation, work preparation, production management, services solution, and timber construction. Further, it engages in modernization, maintenance and service work, training and education services, process optimization, consulting services, financial services, and cybersecurity, as well as spare parts services. HOMAG Group AG was founded in 1960 and is headquartered in Schopfloch, Germany. HOMAG Group AG is a subsidiary of Dürr Aktiengesellschaft.
Stock analysis
HOMAG Group (HG1) currently trades at €25.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €22.87, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 10.2%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €58.72 per share, and 8 of the 18 models we run sit above the €25.20 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €2.93, and 10 of the 18 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: €17.15 (bear) to €28.59 (bull), the price of €25.20 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
HOMAG Group reported revenue of €5.0M in FY2025 versus €17.3M in FY2021, a compound −26.7%/yr. Reported net income was €21.9M in FY2025, compounding −28.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €395M · P/E ratio 16.8 · P/S ratio 73.6 · EPS (TTM) €1.50 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 502% · Return on equity 18.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −9%, HG1 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €17.15Fair Value €22.87Bull €28.59
Price €25.20 · Upside -9.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.3643 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−10.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−25.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−30.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+18.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−22% → −17%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 21.7%/yr over ~6Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 805 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−9.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)18.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets−0.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−5.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−11.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.64× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HOMAG Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HG1
Frequently asked questions
Is HOMAG Group (HG1) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €22.87 versus a price of €25.20, about −9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of HG1?
Our model-based fair value for HOMAG Group is €22.87 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €25.20.
What is the quality score of HG1?
HOMAG Group has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HOMAG Group (HG1)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €22.87 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 18 valuation models. Cautious scenario €17.15, optimistic scenario €28.59. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HOMAG Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €22.87, about −9% upside versus a price of €25.20 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €17.15, optimistic scenario €28.59. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HOMAG Group (HG1)?
HOMAG Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €4.7M (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does HOMAG Group pay a dividend?
HOMAG Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.05% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of HOMAG Group (HG1)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HOMAG Group it is €22.87 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of €25.20. It is the blended result of 18 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HOMAG Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, HG1 trades above its calculated fair value: price €25.20, fair value €22.87, a gap of about −9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HG1?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€25.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€22.87). For HOMAG Group the two are €2.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HOMAG Group worth?
The market values HOMAG Group at about €395M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is €25.20; our models calculate a fair value of €22.87 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HG1?
Our models span a range for HOMAG Group: cautious scenario €17.15, base €22.87, optimistic €28.59 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price €25.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HG1?
HOMAG Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.8 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €22.87 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.2, P/S 95.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of HOMAG Group (HG1)?
Balance-sheet figures for HOMAG Group (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 18.3%, debt of 0.64 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HG1 from its 52-week high?
HOMAG Group trades at €25.20, about 8% below its 52-week high of €27.49 and 11% above the low of €22.80 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €22.87 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HOMAG Group?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HOMAG Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price €25.20, calculated fair value €22.87 (−9%), Quality Score 65/100, from 18 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HG1 calculated?
We run HOMAG Group through 18 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €22.87, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. HOMAG Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HOMAG Group (HG1)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was €25.20. Our model-based fair value is €22.87, about −9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HOMAG Group right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of HOMAG Group
How large is the market capitalisation of HOMAG Group (HG1)?
The market capitalisation of HOMAG Group is €395M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HOMAG Group (HG1)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HOMAG Group is 73.6 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HOMAG Group (HG1)?
Earnings per share at HOMAG Group are €1.50 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of HOMAG Group (HG1)?
The dividend yield of HOMAG Group is 4.0% (payout 68.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of HOMAG Group (HG1)?
The net margin of HOMAG Group is 502% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HOMAG Group (HG1)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HOMAG Group is 18.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HOMAG Group (HG1)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HOMAG Group is −0.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HOMAG Group (HG1)?
The operating margin of HOMAG Group is −5.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HOMAG Group (HG1)?
Revenue at HOMAG Group is growing −11.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HOMAG Group (HG1)?
Earnings per share at HOMAG Group are growing −68.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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