Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGTXU) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 12, 2026: fair value of Hugoton Royalty Trust $0.13, price $0.08, upside +60.0%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0310 – $2.40 · fair‑value band $0.0925 – $0.1719 · the $0.0800 price screens below the $0.1280 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
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Hugoton Royalty Trust operates as an express trust in the United States. The company holds 80% net profits interests in various natural gas producing working interest properties in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Wyoming under conveyances. The company was founded in 1998 and is based in Dallas, Texas.
Stock analysis
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGTXU) currently trades at $0.0800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.1280, implying the stock looks roughly 37.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $0.1200 per share, and 6 of the 9 models we run sit above the $0.0800 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $0.1140, and 3 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.0925 (bear) to $0.1719 (bull), the price of $0.0800 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Hugoton Royalty Trust reported revenue of $38.1B in FY2025 versus $347K in FY2021, a compound +1,719.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$13.1K in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $3.2M · Net margin 0.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 652% · Operating margin −13,663% · Revenue growth (YoY) −4.2% · Free cash flow $11.5B · Net cash $238M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 78% below its 52-week high and 158% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 60%, HGTXU screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.0925Fair Value $0.1280Bull $0.1719
Price $0.0800 · Upside +60.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.27/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1,149.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +132.5% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
0.0% (2020) → 0.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 271 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/5 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+60.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets−131.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)0.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
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Is Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGTXU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.1280 versus a price of $0.0800, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HGTXU?
Our model-based fair value for Hugoton Royalty Trust is $0.1280 (as of Oct 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.0800.
What is the quality score of HGTXU?
Hugoton Royalty Trust has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGTXU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.1280 (as of Oct 13, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.0925, optimistic scenario $0.1719. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hugoton Royalty Trust stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.1280, about +60% upside versus a price of $0.0800 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.0925, optimistic scenario $0.1719. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGTXU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hugoton Royalty Trust it is $0.1280 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026), against a price of $0.0800. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hugoton Royalty Trust stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 13, 2026, HGTXU trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.0800, fair value $0.1280, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HGTXU?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.0800); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.1280). For Hugoton Royalty Trust the two are $0.0480 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hugoton Royalty Trust worth?
The market values Hugoton Royalty Trust at about $3.2M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 13, 2026). Per share that is $0.0800; our models calculate a fair value of $0.1280 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HGTXU?
Our models span a range for Hugoton Royalty Trust: cautious scenario $0.0925, base $0.1280, optimistic $0.1719 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026, price $0.0800). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGTXU)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hugoton Royalty Trust (as of Oct 13, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HGTXU from its 52-week high?
Hugoton Royalty Trust trades at $0.0800, about 78% below its 52-week high of $0.3600 and 158% above the low of $0.0310 (as of Oct 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.1280 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hugoton Royalty Trust?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hugoton Royalty Trust stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 13, 2026: price $0.0800, calculated fair value $0.1280 (+60%), Quality Score 66/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HGTXU calculated?
We run Hugoton Royalty Trust through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.1280, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Hugoton Royalty Trust currently trades 38 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGTXU)?
The closing price on Oct 12, 2026 was $0.0800. Our model-based fair value is $0.1280, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hugoton Royalty Trust right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.0925). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($0.0925 to $0.1719) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Hugoton Royalty Trust
How large is the market capitalisation of Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGTXU)?
The market capitalisation of Hugoton Royalty Trust is $3.2M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the net margin of Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGTXU)?
The net margin of Hugoton Royalty Trust is 0.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGTXU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hugoton Royalty Trust is 652% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGTXU)?
The operating margin of Hugoton Royalty Trust is −13,663% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGTXU)?
Revenue at Hugoton Royalty Trust is growing −4.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1,149%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGTXU) generate?
The free cash flow of Hugoton Royalty Trust is $11.5B (fiscal year 2023). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGTXU) hold?
Hugoton Royalty Trust holds more cash than debt, $238M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Oct 13, 2026