Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGTXU) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $3.6M
Hugoton Royalty Trust
HGTXU · US
Fair value as of: Aug 18, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 18, 2026, revised from $1,034 to $0.1400 (−100.0%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −47.1% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 56% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.0995). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0310 – $2.40 · fair‑value band $0.0995 – $0.1688 · the $0.0900 price screens below the $0.1400 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 18, 2026.
Analysis
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGTXU) currently trades at $0.0900, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.1400, implying the stock looks roughly 55.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $13.1K. Revenue declined 4.2% year over year. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $238M. Fundamentals as of Aug 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.0995 (bear case) to $0.1688 (bull case); at $0.0900, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at 56%, HGTXU screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($0.2306) versus Multiples ($0.0671). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (72).
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hugoton Royalty Trust operates as an express trust in the United States. The company holds 80% net profits interests in various natural gas producing working interest properties in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Wyoming under conveyances. The company was founded in 1998 and is based in Dallas, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hugoton Royalty Trust reported revenue of $38.1B in FY2025 versus $347K in FY2021, a compound +1,719.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$13.1K in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 318 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥32.85 | ¥32.55 | -1% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $126.78 | $90.15 | -29% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $47.57 | $31.14 | -35% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $143.14 | $130.19 | -9% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $58.55 | $30.06 | -49% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $201.71 | $105.24 | -48% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $44.86 | $27.06 | -40% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$32.55 | A$20.71 | -36% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $54.06 | $42.85 | -21% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $342.77 | $77.26 | -77% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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