Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited (HINDOILEXP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited ₹28.52, price ₹167, upside -83.0%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value ₹28.52 · Strongly overvalued (−83.0%)
!Quality 45/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y +18.2 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 23.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers(2/12)
!Narrow moat35/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
Watch Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹111.00 – ₹285.80 · fair‑value band ₹17.13 – ₹44.49 · the ₹167.31 price screens above the ₹28.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
Follow Hindustan Oil Exploration Company in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Hindustan Oil Exploration Company is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of onshore and offshore crude oil and natural gas in India. It also provides oil field equipment and services. The company was incorporated in 1983 and is based in Chennai, India.
Stock analysis
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited (HINDOILEXP) currently trades at ₹167.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹28.52, 83.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ₹70.16 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the ₹167.31 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at ₹16.89, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ₹17.13 (bear) to ₹44.49 (bull), the price of ₹167.31 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited reported revenue of ₹2.6B in FY2026 versus ₹1.6B in FY2022, a compound +14.0%/yr. Reported net income was ₹627M in FY2026, compounding +33.1%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap ₹22.1B (≈ $230M) · P/E ratio 35.4 · P/S ratio 8.43 · EPS (TTM) ₹4.73 · Net margin 23.8% · Return on equity 4.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.6% · Operating margin −1.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −83%, HINDOILEXP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹17.13Fair Value ₹28.52Bull ₹44.49
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹2.40 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−37.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−22.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +18.4% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+3.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3.3% vs 10.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.25% → 13%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 264 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside−83.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4.6% · Below median
Return on assets0.7% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)23.8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)−1.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−48.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)35.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.60× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)8.42× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA20.3× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 32
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 74
PAST (return on equity)19· sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 86
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 70
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HINDOILEXP
Frequently asked questions
Is Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited (HINDOILEXP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹28.52 versus a price of ₹167.31, about −83% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HINDOILEXP?
Our model-based fair value for Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited is ₹28.52 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹167.31.
What is the quality score of HINDOILEXP?
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited (HINDOILEXP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹28.52 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹17.13, optimistic scenario ₹44.49. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹28.52, about −83% upside versus a price of ₹167.31 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹17.13, optimistic scenario ₹44.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited (HINDOILEXP)?
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹2.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited (HINDOILEXP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.2 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HINDOILEXP use?
Our models discount Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited at 13.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.47, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited (HINDOILEXP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited grew +18.2 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited (HINDOILEXP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited (HINDOILEXP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.12 %: that much free cash flow Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited (HINDOILEXP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited it is ₹28.52 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of ₹167.31. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, HINDOILEXP trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹167.31, fair value ₹28.52, a gap of about −83% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HINDOILEXP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹167.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹28.52). For Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited the two are ₹138.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited worth?
The market values Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited at about ₹22.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is ₹167.31; our models calculate a fair value of ₹28.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HINDOILEXP?
Our models span a range for Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited: cautious scenario ₹17.13, base ₹28.52, optimistic ₹44.49 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price ₹167.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HINDOILEXP?
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.4 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹28.52 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.6, P/S 8.4, EV/EBITDA 20.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited (HINDOILEXP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 4.6%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HINDOILEXP from its 52-week high?
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited trades at ₹167.31, about 15% below its 52-week high of ₹195.83 and 41% above the low of ₹118.33 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹28.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price ₹167.31, calculated fair value ₹28.52 (−83%), Quality Score 45/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HINDOILEXP calculated?
We run Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹28.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited (HINDOILEXP)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹167.31. Our model-based fair value is ₹28.52, about −83% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹44.49). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (₹17.13 to ₹44.49) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited (HINDOILEXP)?
The market capitalisation of Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited is ₹22.1B (≈ $230M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited (HINDOILEXP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited is 8.43 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited (HINDOILEXP)?
Earnings per share at Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited are ₹4.73 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 35.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited (HINDOILEXP)?
The net margin of Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited is 23.8% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited (HINDOILEXP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited is 4.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited (HINDOILEXP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited is 8.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited (HINDOILEXP)?
The operating margin of Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited is −1.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited (HINDOILEXP)?
Revenue at Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited is growing −48.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −22.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited (HINDOILEXP)?
Earnings per share at Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited are growing −84.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited (HINDOILEXP) carry?
The net debt of Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited is ₹300M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 11.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited in the live analysis
One click puts Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
