Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing (HKXCY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing $53.66, price $47.88, upside +12.1%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $23.88 – $60.60 · fair‑value band $17.43 – $71.95 · the $47.88 price screens below the $53.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited, together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates stock and futures exchanges, and related clearing houses in Hong Kong, the United Kingdom, and Mainland China. It operates through Cash, Equity and Financial Derivatives, Commodities, and Data and Connectivity segments.
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Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited, together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates stock and futures exchanges, and related clearing houses in Hong Kong, the United Kingdom, and Mainland China. It operates through Cash, Equity and Financial Derivatives, Commodities, and Data and Connectivity segments. The Cash segment covers various equity products traded on the cash market platforms of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited, as well as through the Shanghai-Hong Kong and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong stock connects; clearing, settlement and custodian, listing, depository, and nominee services; and other related activities. Its Equity and Financial Derivatives segment provides and maintains trading and clearing platforms for a range of equity and financial derivative products, such as stock and equity index futures and options, derivative warrants, callable bull/bear contracts and warrants, and over the counter derivatives contracts. The Commodities segment operates an exchange for the trading of base and ferrous metals futures and options contracts in the United Kingdom; and operates Qianhai Mercantile Exchange Co., Ltd., a commodity trading platform in Mainland China. This segment also covers commodities contracts traded on Futures Exchange. Its Data and Connectivity segment offers various services that provides access to the platform and infrastructure, as well as services of BayConnect Technology Company Limited; network, terminal user, data line and software sublicense, and hosting services; and sells market data relating to the Hong Kong cash and derivatives markets. The company serves issuers and investors. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Central, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing (HKXCY) currently trades at $47.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $53.66, implying the stock looks roughly 10.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $66.57 per share, and 5 of the 12 models we run sit above the $47.88 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $8.21, and 7 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $17.43 (bear) to $71.95 (bull), the price of $47.88 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing reported revenue of HK$29.1B in FY2025 versus HK$20.8B in FY2021, a compound +8.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$17.7B in FY2025, compounding +9.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $60.7B · P/E ratio 25.2 · P/S ratio 15.3 · EPS (TTM) $1.90 · Dividend yield 3.4% · Net margin 60.9% · Return on equity 35.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 63 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at 12%, HKXCY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $17.43Fair Value $53.66Bull $71.95
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.44 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.0% vs 11.4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.71% → 73%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in HKD, Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −11.3% a year for the price and +2.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Financial Data & Stock Exchanges · 52 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score78 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)35.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)62.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)77.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth19.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Financial Data & Stock Exchanges median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HKXCY
Frequently asked questions
Is Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing (HKXCY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $53.66 versus a price of $47.88, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HKXCY?
Our model-based fair value for Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing is $53.66 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $47.88.
What is the quality score of HKXCY?
Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing (HKXCY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $53.66 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $17.43, optimistic scenario $71.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $53.66, about +12% upside versus a price of $47.88 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $17.43, optimistic scenario $71.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing (HKXCY)?
Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$30.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing pay a dividend?
Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.36% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing (HKXCY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing would have to grow free cash flow by -9.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.9 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HKXCY use?
Our models discount Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.92, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing that is -9.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing (HKXCY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing grew +8.9 % a year. The price currently implies -9.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing (HKXCY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing (-9.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing (HKXCY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.40 %: that much free cash flow Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing (HKXCY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing it is $53.66 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $47.88. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, HKXCY trades below its calculated fair value: price $47.88, fair value $53.66, a gap of about +12% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HKXCY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($47.88); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($53.66). For Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing the two are $5.78 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing worth?
The market values Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing at about $60.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $47.88; our models calculate a fair value of $53.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HKXCY?
Our models span a range for Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing: cautious scenario $17.43, base $53.66, optimistic $71.95 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $47.88). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HKXCY?
Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.2 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $53.66 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.8, P/B 8.4, P/S 16.2, EV/EBITDA 13.3.
What is the PEG ratio of HKXCY?
The PEG ratio of Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing is 1.77 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing (HKXCY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 35.0%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HKXCY from its 52-week high?
Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing trades at $47.88, about 16% below its 52-week high of $56.88 and 3% above the low of $46.28 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $53.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value S&P Global Inc, CME Group, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc, Moody's Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $47.88, calculated fair value $53.66 (+12%), Quality Score 69/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HKXCY calculated?
We run Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $53.66, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing currently trades 11 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing (HKXCY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $47.88. Our model-based fair value is $53.66, about +12% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($17.43 to $71.95). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing (HKXCY) come from?
Earnings per share at Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing grew +8.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.9 %, EBIT margin +0.5 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing
How large is the market capitalisation of Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing (HKXCY)?
The market capitalisation of Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing is $60.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing (HKXCY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing is 15.3 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing (HKXCY)?
Earnings per share at Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing are $1.90 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing (HKXCY)?
The dividend yield of Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing is 3.4% (payout 84.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing (HKXCY)?
The net margin of Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing is 60.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing (HKXCY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing is 35.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing (HKXCY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing is 3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing (HKXCY)?
The operating margin of Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing is 77.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing (HKXCY)?
Revenue at Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing is growing +19.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing (HKXCY)?
Earnings per share at Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing are growing +27.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing (HKXCY) hold?
Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing holds more cash than debt, HK$181B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 28, 2026