Halfords Group PLC (HLFDY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Halfords Group PLC $3.13, price $7.15, upside -56.2%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Halfords Group PLC ADR for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.50 – $9.54 · fair‑value band $2.23 – $4.04 · the $7.15 price screens above the $3.13 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Follow Halfords Group PLC ADR in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Halfords Group PLC ADR is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Halfords Group plc, through its subsidiaries, provides motoring and cycling products and services in the United Kingdom. It operates through two segments, Retail and Autocentres.
Show more
Halfords Group plc, through its subsidiaries, provides motoring and cycling products and services in the United Kingdom. It operates through two segments, Retail and Autocentres. The company offers batteries; car parts, cleaning solutions, seats, and accessories; engine oils and fluids; tyres; tools; baby and child car accessories; bulbs; wiper blades; roof bars and boxes; number plates; camping; and travel accessories. The company also offers bikes; electric and refurbished bikes; bike accessories, parts, racks, and helmets; cycling clothing; scooters; second hand electric scooters; turbo trainers; bike services and repairs; and cycling technologies. In addition, it offers car warranty, checks, and mobile fitting services. It sells its products and services through retail stores and online platform. Further, it provides vehicle servicing and repair from garages and mobile vans; and Avayler, Software-as-a-Service platform. Halfords Group plc was founded in 1892 and is based in Redditch, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Halfords Group PLC ADR (HLFDY) currently trades at $7.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.13, 56.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $22.98 per share, and 10 of the 13 models we run sit above the $7.15 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $2.46, and 3 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $2.23 (bear) to $4.04 (bull), the price of $7.15 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Halfords Group PLC ADR reported revenue of £1.7B in FY2025 versus £1.3B in FY2021, a compound +7.3%/yr. Reported net income was −£33.6M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $371M · P/S ratio 0.21 · EPS (TTM) $−0.4100 · Dividend yield 7.0% · Net margin −2.0% · Return on equity −6.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5% · Operating margin 3.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 110% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at −56%, HLFDY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.23Fair Value $3.13Bull $4.04
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.53/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.3% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
2.9% (2020) → −1.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−15.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in GBP, UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −17.2% a year for the price and +0.7% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 211 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside+29.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets2.5% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−1.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)3.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)7.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Halfords Group PLC ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HLFDY
Frequently asked questions
Is Halfords Group PLC (HLFDY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.13 versus a price of $7.15, about −56% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HLFDY?
Our model-based fair value for Halfords Group PLC ADR is $3.13 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.15.
What is the quality score of HLFDY?
Halfords Group PLC ADR has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Halfords Group PLC (HLFDY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.13 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.23, optimistic scenario $4.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Halfords Group PLC ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.13, about −56% upside versus a price of $7.15 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.23, optimistic scenario $4.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Halfords Group PLC (HLFDY)?
Halfords Group PLC ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £1.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Halfords Group PLC ADR pay a dividend?
Halfords Group PLC ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.96% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Halfords Group PLC (HLFDY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Halfords Group PLC ADR would have to grow free cash flow by -15.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HLFDY use?
Our models discount Halfords Group PLC ADR at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.22, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Halfords Group PLC ADR that is -15.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Halfords Group PLC (HLFDY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Halfords Group PLC ADR grew +8.2 % a year. The price currently implies -15.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Halfords Group PLC (HLFDY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Halfords Group PLC ADR (-15.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Halfords Group PLC (HLFDY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 23.39 %: that much free cash flow Halfords Group PLC ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Halfords Group PLC (HLFDY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Halfords Group PLC ADR it is $3.13 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $7.15. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Halfords Group PLC ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HLFDY trades above its calculated fair value: price $7.15, fair value $3.13, a gap of about −56% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HLFDY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.13). For Halfords Group PLC ADR the two are $4.02 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Halfords Group PLC ADR worth?
The market values Halfords Group PLC ADR at about $371M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $7.15; our models calculate a fair value of $3.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HLFDY?
Our models span a range for Halfords Group PLC ADR: cautious scenario $2.23, base $3.13, optimistic $4.04 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $7.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Halfords Group PLC (HLFDY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Halfords Group PLC ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −6.5%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HLFDY from its 52-week high?
Halfords Group PLC ADR trades at $7.15, about 9% below its 52-week high of $7.88 and 110% above the low of $3.41 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Halfords Group PLC ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Halfords Group PLC ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $7.15, calculated fair value $3.13 (−56%), Quality Score 58/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HLFDY calculated?
We run Halfords Group PLC ADR through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Halfords Group PLC ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Halfords Group PLC (HLFDY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $7.15. Our model-based fair value is $3.13, about −56% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Halfords Group PLC ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.04). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($2.23 to $4.04) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Halfords Group PLC (HLFDY) come from?
Earnings per share at Halfords Group PLC ADR grew −12.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.3 %, EBIT margin −10.4 %, tax rate −1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Halfords Group PLC ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Halfords Group PLC (HLFDY)?
The market capitalisation of Halfords Group PLC ADR is $371M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Halfords Group PLC (HLFDY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Halfords Group PLC ADR is 0.21 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Halfords Group PLC (HLFDY)?
Earnings per share at Halfords Group PLC ADR are $−0.4100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Halfords Group PLC (HLFDY)?
The dividend yield of Halfords Group PLC ADR is 7.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Halfords Group PLC (HLFDY)?
The net margin of Halfords Group PLC ADR is −2.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Halfords Group PLC (HLFDY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Halfords Group PLC ADR is −6.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Halfords Group PLC (HLFDY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Halfords Group PLC ADR is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Halfords Group PLC (HLFDY)?
The operating margin of Halfords Group PLC ADR is 3.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Halfords Group PLC (HLFDY)?
Revenue at Halfords Group PLC ADR is growing +3.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Halfords Group PLC (HLFDY) carry?
The net debt of Halfords Group PLC ADR is £261M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Halfords Group PLC ADR in the live analysis
One click puts Halfords Group PLC ADR on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Some data
Sep 24, 2026