Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Hillman Solutions Corp $4.50, price $7.14, upside -37.0%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.55 – $13.34 · fair‑value band $1.52 – $9.16 · the $7.14 price screens above the $4.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Hillman Solutions Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provides hardware-related products and related merchandising services in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Latin America, and the Caribbean.
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Hillman Solutions Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provides hardware-related products and related merchandising services in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Latin America, and the Caribbean. The company offers automotive products, such as belts and chains, brake and fuel lines, and carburetor and throttles; clamps, clips, and couplers; spacers, bushings, and bearings; and thread repair, electrical, plugs, and wheel parts. It also provides fuses, breakers, and switches; cables and wires; grommets; light bulbs and indicators; sockets and adaptors; engraving products; fasteners, including anchors, bolts, drill bits, hurricanes, nails, pins, rings, rivets, screws, sockets, spacers, staples, threaded inserts and rods, ties, tools/brushes, washers, wire hardware, and wood parts; and fluid flow components. In addition, the company offers hardware products comprising connections, caps and plugs, door and windows, fences, garage doors, gates, household, interiors, knobs and handles, magnets, rail, gangers, reinforcements, security, shims and wedges, and springs products; key accessories; markers/reflectors, numbers, letters, plaques, signs, stencils, survey and flagging tapes; fittings, connectors, torches, and burners liquefied petroleum gas products; and wall hangings consists of adhesives, frame hardware, hooks, kits, mirror, picture hanging, tool-free mounting, and wall hanging accessories. Further, it provides plumbing products; power tool accessories; rods, shapes, and sheets; and safety and security products. It offers its products under the Power Pro, All Points, OOK, Hardware Essentials, Fastening Systems, Paulin, The Steel Works, Deck Plus, Grease Monkey, Firm Grip, Magnifeye, True Grip, AWP, Shaded Eye, McGuire-Nicholas, Gorilla Grip, intex, Axxess+, resharp, minuteokay, OTR, Digz, Fas-n-Tite, Ozco, High & Mighty, Premium Defense, Keykrafter, KeyHero, Quick-Tag, TagWorks, and FIDO brand names. Hillman Solutions Corp. is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Stock analysis
Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN) currently trades at $7.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.50, implying the stock looks roughly 58.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $9.40 per share, and 10 of the 24 models we run sit above the $7.14 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $1.42, and 14 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $1.52 (bear) to $9.16 (bull), the price of $7.14 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hillman Solutions Corp reported revenue of $1.6B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +2.1%/yr. Reported net income was $40.3M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.6B · P/E ratio 39.7 · P/S ratio 1.03 · EPS (TTM) $0.1800 · Net margin 2.6% · Return on equity 3.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7% · Operating margin 1.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −37%, HLMN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.52Fair Value $4.50Bull $9.16
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1317 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.50/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.2% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
4.8% (2020) → 7.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+38.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +34.8% a year for the price and +2.6% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Tools & Accessories · 126 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside−38% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.54× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Tools & Accessories median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)39.7× · Pricier than median
P/B1.29× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)1.01× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF45.1× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA8.8× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 2
FUTURE (revenue growth)15· sector 16
PAST (return on equity)12· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)73· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 34
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.50 versus a price of $7.14, about −37% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HLMN?
Our model-based fair value for Hillman Solutions Corp is $4.50 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.14.
What is the quality score of HLMN?
Hillman Solutions Corp has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.50 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.52, optimistic scenario $9.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hillman Solutions Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.50, about −37% upside versus a price of $7.14 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.52, optimistic scenario $9.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN)?
Hillman Solutions Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hillman Solutions Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +38.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HLMN use?
Our models discount Hillman Solutions Corp at 12.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.41, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hillman Solutions Corp that is +38.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hillman Solutions Corp grew +2.6 % a year. The price currently implies +38.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hillman Solutions Corp (+38.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.46 %: that much free cash flow Hillman Solutions Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hillman Solutions Corp it is $4.50 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $7.14. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hillman Solutions Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HLMN trades above its calculated fair value: price $7.14, fair value $4.50, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HLMN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.50). For Hillman Solutions Corp the two are $2.64 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hillman Solutions Corp worth?
The market values Hillman Solutions Corp at about $1.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $7.14; our models calculate a fair value of $4.50 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HLMN?
Our models span a range for Hillman Solutions Corp: cautious scenario $1.52, base $4.50, optimistic $9.16 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $7.14). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HLMN?
Hillman Solutions Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 39.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.50 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 8.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hillman Solutions Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.0%, debt of 0.54 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HLMN from its 52-week high?
Hillman Solutions Corp trades at $7.14, about 34% below its 52-week high of $10.74 and 2% above the low of $6.98 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.50 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hillman Solutions Corp?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Techtronic Industries Company, Snap-on Incorporated, RBC Bearings Incorporated, Lincoln Electric Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hillman Solutions Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $7.14, calculated fair value $4.50 (−37%), Quality Score 51/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HLMN calculated?
We run Hillman Solutions Corp through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.50, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Hillman Solutions Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $7.14. Our model-based fair value is $4.50, about −37% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hillman Solutions Corp right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($1.52 to $9.16). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Hillman Solutions Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN)?
The market capitalisation of Hillman Solutions Corp is $1.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hillman Solutions Corp is 1.03 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN)?
Earnings per share at Hillman Solutions Corp are $0.1800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 39.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN)?
The net margin of Hillman Solutions Corp is 2.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hillman Solutions Corp is 3.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hillman Solutions Corp is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN)?
The operating margin of Hillman Solutions Corp is 1.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN)?
Revenue at Hillman Solutions Corp is growing +3.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN)?
Earnings per share at Hillman Solutions Corp are growing +210% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN) carry?
The net debt of Hillman Solutions Corp is $801M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 22.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026