Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $1.6B
Hillman Solutions Corp
HLMN · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +20.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 53% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.39). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.55 – $13.34 · fair‑value band $3.24 – $5.39 · the $9.22 price screens above the $4.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN) currently trades at $9.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.31, implying the stock looks roughly 53.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Hillman Solutions Corp generated revenue of $1.6B at a net margin of 2.3%. Revenue grew 3.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.0%. Net debt stands at $801M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.24 (bear case) to $5.39 (bull case); at $9.22, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at -53%, HLMN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($9.40) versus Growth DCF ($0.6700). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hillman Solutions Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provides hardware-related products and related merchandising services in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Latin America, and the Caribbean.
Full company description
Hillman Solutions Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provides hardware-related products and related merchandising services in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Latin America, and the Caribbean. The company offers automotive products, such as belts and chains, brake and fuel lines, and carburetor and throttles; clamps, clips, and couplers; spacers, bushings, and bearings; and thread repair, electrical, plugs, and wheel parts. It also provides fuses, breakers, and switches; cables and wires; grommets; light bulbs and indicators; sockets and adaptors; engraving products; fasteners, including anchors, bolts, drill bits, hurricanes, nails, pins, rings, rivets, screws, sockets, spacers, staples, threaded inserts and rods, ties, tools/brushes, washers, wire hardware, and wood parts; and fluid flow components. In addition, the company offers hardware products comprising connections, caps and plugs, door and windows, fences, garage doors, gates, household, interiors, knobs and handles, magnets, rail, gangers, reinforcements, security, shims and wedges, and springs products; key accessories; markers/reflectors, numbers, letters, plaques, signs, stencils, survey and flagging tapes; fittings, connectors, torches, and burners liquefied petroleum gas products; and wall hangings consists of adhesives, frame hardware, hooks, kits, mirror, picture hanging, tool-free mounting, and wall hanging accessories. Further, it provides plumbing products; power tool accessories; rods, shapes, and sheets; and safety and security products. It offers its products under the Power Pro, All Points, OOK, Hardware Essentials, Fastening Systems, Paulin, The Steel Works, Deck Plus, Grease Monkey, Firm Grip, Magnifeye, True Grip, AWP, Shaded Eye, McGuire-Nicholas, Gorilla Grip, intex, Axxess+, resharp, minuteokay, OTR, Digz, Fas-n-Tite, Ozco, High & Mighty, Premium Defense, Keykrafter, KeyHero, Quick-Tag, TagWorks, and FIDO brand names. Hillman Solutions Corp. is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hillman Solutions Corp reported revenue of $1.6B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +2.1%/yr. Reported net income was $40.3M in FY2025.
HLMN screens 53% overvalued. Compare with Techtronic Industries Company →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Hillman (HLMN) Q2 Earnings Report Preview: What To Look For
- Hillman Announces Closing of $735 Million Term Loan B and $375 Million ABL Revolving Credit Facility
- Hillman Announces Launch to Refinance Existing Debt, Reports Preliminary Q2 2026 Results, Reiterates Full Year 2026 Financial Guidance
- Did Hillman’s New 715,000-Square-Foot Ohio Hub Just Shift HLMN’s Investment Narrative?
Peer Group
Tools & Accessories · 120 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Tools & Accessories median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Tools & Accessories stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Techtronic Industries Company 0669 | HK$129.60 | HK$81.05 | -37% |
| Snap-on Incorporated SNA | $410.99 | $350.46 | -15% |
| RBC Bearings Incorporated RBC | $595.49 | $184.29 | -69% |
| Lincoln Electric Holdings LECO | $252.58 | $154.80 | -39% |
| Stanley Black & Decker, Inc SWK | $88.22 | $54.24 | -39% |
| AB SKF (publ) SKFB | kr 258.90 | kr 192.57 | -26% |
| The Timken Company TKR | $139.47 | $66.33 | -52% |
| The Toro Company TTC | $94.42 | $69.71 | -26% |
| SFS Group SFSN | CHF 140.00 | CHF 118.30 | -16% |
| Hangzhou Greatstar Industrial Co 002444 | ¥29.33 | ¥35.72 | +22% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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