Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hillman Solutions Corp stock $2.33, price $8.32, that is 72.0% below the price, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 21 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Hillman Solutions Corp
HLMN · USOur calculation puts a fair price 72% below what the stock costs today.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.55 – $13.34 · fair‑value band $1.07 – $4.66 · the $8.32 price screens above the $2.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Company profile
Hillman Solutions Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provides hardware-related products and related merchandising services in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Latin America, and the Caribbean.
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The company offers automotive products, such as belts and chains, brake and fuel lines, and carburetor and throttles; clamps, clips, and couplers; spacers, bushings, and bearings; and thread repair, electrical, plugs, and wheel parts.
It also provides fuses, breakers, and switches; cables and wires; grommets; light bulbs and indicators; sockets and adaptors; engraving products; fasteners, including anchors, bolts, drill bits, hurricanes, nails, pins, rings, rivets, screws, sockets, spacers, staples, threaded inserts and rods, ties, tools/brushes, washers, wire hardware, and wood parts; and fluid flow components.
In addition, the company offers hardware products comprising connections, caps and plugs, door and windows, fences, garage doors, gates, household, interiors, knobs and handles, magnets, rail, gangers, reinforcements, security, shims and wedges, and springs products; key accessories; markers/reflectors, numbers, letters, plaques, signs, stencils, survey and flagging tapes; fittings, connectors, torches, and burners liquefied petroleum gas products; and wall hangings consists of adhesives, frame hardware, hooks, kits, mirror, picture hanging, tool-free mounting, and wall hanging accessories.
Further, it provides plumbing products; power tool accessories; rods, shapes, and sheets; and safety and security products.
It offers its products under the Power Pro, All Points, OOK, Hardware Essentials, Fastening Systems, Paulin, The Steel Works, Deck Plus, Grease Monkey, Firm Grip, Magnifeye, True Grip, AWP, Shaded Eye, McGuire-Nicholas, Gorilla Grip, intex, Axxess+, resharp, minuteokay, OTR, Digz, Fas-n-Tite, Ozco, High & Mighty, Premium Defense, Keykrafter, KeyHero, Quick-Tag, TagWorks, and FIDO brand names.
Hillman Solutions Corp. is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Stock analysis
Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN) currently trades at $8.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.33, 72% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $4.35 per share, and 2 of the 21 models we run sit above the $8.32 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.9700, and 19 of the 21 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $1.07 (bear) to $4.66 (bull), the price of $8.32 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hillman Solutions Corp reported revenue of $1.6B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +2.1%/yr. Reported net income was $40.3M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.6B Small · P/E ratio 69.3 · P/S ratio 1.02 · EPS (TTM) $0.1200 · Net margin 2.6% · Return on equity 3.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7% (5-year average) · Operating margin 8.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −72%, HLMN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
All 21 models by family
Quality Score breakdown
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Insider trades
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $248,500, on Sep 11, 2026. Over the same period, 2 people sold shares worth $248,643.
- BuyRobert O. KraftCFO and Treasurer35,500 shares at $7.00$248,500Sep 11, 2026
- SaleAmanda KitzbergerChief Leg. Offic. & Secretary2× since Mar 10, 2026: 25,554 shares, avg. $7.73$197,543Sep 9, 2026
- SaleAaron Jerrod ParkerChief People Offic.17,381 shares at $8.57$148,955Aug 19, 2026
- SaleScott Kelley MooreDiv. Pres. - Robo. and Digital1,451 shares at $8.29$12,029Mar 10, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 10 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
Compare Hillman Solutions Corp with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Tools & Accessories · 129 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Tools & Accessories median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Quality Score by industry
- Return on equity by industry
- Piotroski F-Score screener with fair value
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Tools & Accessories stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hangzhou Greatstar Industrial Co 002444 | ¥29.88 | ¥33.85 | +13% | vs HLMN |
| Techtronic Industries Company 0669 | HK$142.60 | HK$156.86 | +10% | vs HLMN |
| Snap-on Incorporated SNA | $367.22 | $353.47 | −4% | vs HLMN |
| SFS Group SFSN | CHF 140.40 | CHF 118.30 | −16% | vs HLMN |
| RBC Bearings Incorporated RBC | $474.45 | $381.54 | −20% | vs HLMN |
| The Timken Company TKR | $102.03 | $72.31 | −29% | vs HLMN |
| The Toro Company TTC | $104.84 | $70.12 | −33% | vs HLMN |
| Lincoln Electric Holdings LECO | $275.35 | $159.78 | −42% | vs HLMN |
| Stanley Black & Decker, Inc SWK | $114.85 | $63.24 | −45% | vs HLMN |
| Kinik Company 1560 | 669.00 TWD | 125.92 TWD | −81% | vs HLMN |
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Key figures of Hillman Solutions Corp
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