HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. (HLPXF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. $8.53, price $7.24, upside +17.9%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
25‑month range $5.81 – $7.24 · fair‑value band $5.78 – $12.45 · the $7.24 price screens below the $8.53 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates in the energy sector in Greece, the Southeastern Europe, and the East Mediterranean. It operates through Refining, Supply and Trading; Marketing; Production and Trading of Petrochemicals; Power; Exploration and Production of Hydrocarbons; and Electromobility segments.
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HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates in the energy sector in Greece, the Southeastern Europe, and the East Mediterranean. It operates through Refining, Supply and Trading; Marketing; Production and Trading of Petrochemicals; Power; Exploration and Production of Hydrocarbons; and Electromobility segments. The company engages in the refining, supply, and trading of crude oil and petroleum products; marketing of fuels; wholesale trading of oil products; production and marketing of polypropylene, BOPP/cast films, and solvents; trading of imported plastics and chemicals; and production, trading, and supply of power. It is also involved in the wholesale trading and distribution of natural gas; production and trading of energy produced by renewable energy sources; exploration and production of hydrocarbons; and provision of treasury, consulting, and engineering services, as well as IT services. In addition, the company engages in the owning and marketing of vessels; leasing of other commercial properties, such as highway service stations; operation and leasing of petrol stations; production and packaging of lubricants; logistics and distribution of LPG; real estate activities; and operation of fuel storage facilities and various underground crude oil pipelines. The company was formerly known as Hellenic Petroleum Holdings Societe Anonyme and changed its name to HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. in September 2022. HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Marousi, Greece.
Stock analysis
HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. (HLPXF) currently trades at $7.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.53, implying the stock looks roughly 15.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $8.07 per share, and 5 of the 20 models we run sit above the $7.24 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $1.75, and 15 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $5.78 (bear) to $12.45 (bull), the price of $7.24 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. reported revenue of €11.6B in FY2025 versus €9.2B in FY2021, a compound +5.9%/yr. Reported net income was €173M in FY2025, compounding −15.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.2B · P/E ratio 4.0 · P/S ratio 0.06 · EPS (TTM) $1.82 · Dividend yield 8.3% · Net margin 1.5% · Return on equity 15.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 34 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −61% fair-value upside, at 18%, HLPXF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.78Fair Value $8.53Bull $12.45
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8924 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−4.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−12.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−8% → 3%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +17.9% a year for the price and +1.0% for the forecasts.
Compare HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 111 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside+18% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16% · Above median
Return on assets6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)8.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.02× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HLPXF
Frequently asked questions
Is HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. (HLPXF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.53 versus a price of $7.24, about +18% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HLPXF?
Our model-based fair value for HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. is $8.53 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.24.
What is the quality score of HLPXF?
HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. (HLPXF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.53 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.78, optimistic scenario $12.45. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.53, about +18% upside versus a price of $7.24 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $5.78, optimistic scenario $12.45. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. (HLPXF)?
HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €11.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. pay a dividend?
HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.29% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. (HLPXF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +20.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HLPXF use?
Our models discount HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.16, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. that is +20.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. (HLPXF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. grew +15.0 % a year. The price currently implies +20.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. (HLPXF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. (+20.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. (HLPXF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.85 %: that much free cash flow HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. (HLPXF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. it is $8.53 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $7.24. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HLPXF trades below its calculated fair value: price $7.24, fair value $8.53, a gap of about +18% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HLPXF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.24); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.53). For HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. the two are $1.29 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. worth?
The market values HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. at about $2.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $7.24; our models calculate a fair value of $8.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HLPXF?
Our models span a range for HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A.: cautious scenario $5.78, base $8.53, optimistic $12.45 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $7.24). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HLPXF?
HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $8.53 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 4.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. (HLPXF)?
Balance-sheet figures for HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 15.5%, debt of 1.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HLPXF from its 52-week high?
HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. trades at $7.24, at its 52-week high of $7.24 and 10% above the low of $6.56 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A.?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $7.24, calculated fair value $8.53 (+18%), Quality Score 53/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HLPXF calculated?
We run HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $8.53, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. currently trades 18 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. (HLPXF)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $7.24. Our model-based fair value is $8.53, about +18% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. right now?
A fairly wide model range ($5.78 to $12.45) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. (HLPXF)?
The market capitalisation of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. is $2.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. (HLPXF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. is 0.06 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. (HLPXF)?
Earnings per share at HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. are $1.82 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. (HLPXF)?
The dividend yield of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. is 8.3% (payout 33.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. (HLPXF)?
The net margin of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. is 1.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. (HLPXF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. is 15.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. (HLPXF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. is 8.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. (HLPXF)?
The operating margin of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. is 14.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. (HLPXF)?
Revenue at HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. is growing −0.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. (HLPXF)?
Earnings per share at HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. are growing +30.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. (HLPXF) carry?
The net debt of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. is €2.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 22.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026