HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings (HLPXF) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $2.2B
HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings
HLPXF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 18 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from $8.64 to $10.57 (+22.4%) since Jun 24, 2026.
A solid business, screening 46% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($8.27). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (23 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
23‑month range $6.20 – $7.24 · fair‑value band $8.27 – $11.22 · the $7.24 price screens below the $10.57 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings (HLPXF) currently trades at $7.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.57, implying the stock looks roughly 46.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings generated revenue of $11.6B at a net margin of 3.9%. Revenue declined 0.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.5%. Net debt stands at $2.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $8.27 (bear case) to $11.22 (bull case); at $7.24, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at 46%, HLPXF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 18 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($8.07) versus DCF Models ($2.35). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates in the energy sector in Greece, the Southeastern Europe, and the East Mediterranean. It operates through Refining, Supply and Trading; Marketing; Production and Trading of Petrochemicals; Power; Exploration and Production of Hydrocarbons; and Electromobility segments.
Full company description
HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates in the energy sector in Greece, the Southeastern Europe, and the East Mediterranean. It operates through Refining, Supply and Trading; Marketing; Production and Trading of Petrochemicals; Power; Exploration and Production of Hydrocarbons; and Electromobility segments. The company engages in the refining, supply, and trading of crude oil and petroleum products; marketing of fuels; wholesale trading of oil products; production and marketing of polypropylene, BOPP/cast films, and solvents; trading of imported plastics and chemicals; and production, trading, and supply of power. It is also involved in the wholesale trading and distribution of natural gas; production and trading of energy produced by renewable energy sources; exploration and production of hydrocarbons; and provision of treasury, consulting, and engineering services, as well as IT services. In addition, the company engages in the owning and marketing of vessels; leasing of other commercial properties, such as highway service stations; operation and leasing of petrol stations; production and packaging of lubricants; logistics and distribution of LPG; real estate activities; and operation of fuel storage facilities and various underground crude oil pipelines. The company was formerly known as Hellenic Petroleum Holdings Societe Anonyme and changed its name to HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. in September 2022. HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Marousi, Greece.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings reported revenue of $11.6B in FY2025 versus $9.2B in FY2021, a compound +5.9%/yr. Reported net income was $173M in FY2025, compounding −15.3%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 114 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE | ₹1,293 | ₹835.66 | -35% |
| Valero Energy Corporation VLO | $309.65 | $127.32 | -59% |
| Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC | $283.74 | $135.80 | -52% |
| Phillips 66 PSX | $196.16 | $101.04 | -48% |
| Neste Oyj NESTE | €31.10 | €4.07 | -87% |
| Formosa Petrochemical Corporation 6505 | 81.30 TWD | 16.68 TWD | -79% |
| Indian Oil Corporation IOC | ₹138.96 | ₹417.35 | +200% |
| HF Sinclair Corporation DINO | $88.59 | $48.90 | -45% |
| Bharat Petroleum Corporation BPCL | ₹315.55 | ₹846.81 | +168% |
| SK Innovation Co 096770 | 121,400 KRW | 58,865 KRW | -52% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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