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Hemisphere Energy Corporation (HME) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · CA · Market cap C$240M

HE Hemisphere Energy Corporation HME · V
PriceC$2.61
Fair ValueC$2.63
Upside+0.8%
Quality70/100
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Mixed Growth
Highly profitable · 35.1% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
3.92% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (11/14)
Wide moat 89/100
Evidence: High Range C$1.97 – C$10.52 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated yesterday

Share price −1.1% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide (C$1.97 to C$10.52). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

C$2.99 C$0.3675 Fair Value C$2.63 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range C$0.3675 – C$2.99 · fair‑value band C$1.97 – C$10.52 · the C$2.61 price screens below the C$2.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Hemisphere Energy Corporation (HME) currently trades at C$2.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$2.63, implying the stock looks roughly 0.8% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Hemisphere Energy Corporation generated revenue of C$76.7M at a net margin of 35.1%. Revenue declined 1.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 32.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of C$3.8M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from C$1.97 (bear case) to C$10.52 (bull case); at C$2.61, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at 1%, HME screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF C$4.06 C$6.52 C$10.38 80
Residual Income C$1.64 C$2.32 C$15.50 76
Rev-Margin DCF C$2.32 C$3.42 C$5.79 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF C$4.33 C$6.05 C$11.07 38
Owner Earnings C$1.81 C$3.52 C$6.50 31
5Y Revenue Exit C$2.14 C$2.99 C$4.72 39
5Y EBITDA Exit C$2.81 C$4.34 C$7.32 41
5Y P/E Exit C$3.58 C$7.27 C$12.19 38
10Y Revenue Exit C$2.92 C$4.80 C$5.55 36
10Y EBITDA Exit C$3.37 C$6.03 C$10.24 37
10Y P/E Exit C$3.85 C$7.43 C$13.07 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd C$2.02 C$14.07 C$19.75 54
Lynch FV C$7.27 C$10.38 C$13.50 50
PEG = 1.0 C$7.27 C$10.38 C$13.50 46
EPV C$2.40 C$2.68 C$2.91 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple C$3.12 C$4.15 C$5.19 63
P/S Multiple C$0.9000 C$1.19 C$1.49 58
P/B Multiple C$1.15 C$1.54 C$1.92 55
EV/EBIT C$3.17 C$4.22 C$5.26 53
EV/EBITDA C$1.97 C$2.62 C$3.26 54
EV/Revenue C$0.8800 C$1.24 C$1.59 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) C$0.4300 C$0.5700 C$0.8500 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF C$4.06 C$6.52 C$10.38 80
Rev-Margin DCF C$2.32 C$3.42 C$5.79 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income C$1.64 C$2.32 C$15.50 76
ROIC Compounder C$2.93 C$4.00 C$5.24 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E C$8.52 C$12.17 C$15.82 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (C$12.17) versus Asset-Based (C$0.5700). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) C$76.7M
Revenue growth (YoY) -1.9%
Net margin 35.1%
Return on equity 32.7%
Free cash flow C$34.1M FY2025
P/E ratio 9.3
More key figures
Operating margin 50.0%
EPS (TTM) C$0.2800
Dividend yield 3.9%
EPS growth (YoY) -11.1%
Net cash C$3.8M FY2023

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 70/100

Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72

Profitability 85
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 12
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 85
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 87
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 25
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 82
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 65
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 75
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Hemisphere Energy Corporation acquires, explores, develops, and produces petroleum and natural gas properties in Canada. The company primarily owns a 100% interest in the Atlee Buffalo property located in southeastern Alberta. The company was formerly known as Northern Hemisphere Development Corp.

Full company description

Hemisphere Energy Corporation acquires, explores, develops, and produces petroleum and natural gas properties in Canada. The company primarily owns a 100% interest in the Atlee Buffalo property located in southeastern Alberta. The company was formerly known as Northern Hemisphere Development Corp. and changed its name to Hemisphere Energy Corporation in April 2009. Hemisphere Energy Corporation was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Hemisphere Energy Corporation reported revenue of C$93.9M in FY2025 versus C$43.1M in FY2021, a compound +21.5%/yr. Reported net income was C$28.0M in FY2025, compounding +61.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
C$93.9M
Latest YoY
−6.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.0%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+38.1%
Avg. growth/yr (29Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+32.8%
Revenue +21.5%/yr
FY21 C$43.1M
FY22 C$96.7M
FY23 C$84.5M
FY24 C$99.9M
FY25 C$93.9M
Net income +61.0%/yr
FY21 C$4.2M
FY22 C$21.3M
FY23 C$24.2M
FY24 C$33.1M
FY25 C$28.0M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hemisphere Energy Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HME

Peer Group

Oil & Gas E&P · 313 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +1% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 33% · Top 25%
Return on assets 20% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 35% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 50% · Top 25%
Revenue growth -2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.9% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.19× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.14× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 2.25× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 5.1× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 3.5× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 34 · sector 9
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 100 · sector 0
HEALTH 90 · sector 87
DIVIDEND 78 · sector 66

Insider activity: 45/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
CNOOC Limited 600938 ¥32.85 ¥32.55 -1%
ConocoPhillips explores for, COP $125.92 $90.15 -28%
Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ $47.57 $31.14 -35%
EOG Resources, Inc EOG $143.14 $130.19 -9%
Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY $58.55 $30.06 -49%
Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG $201.71 $105.24 -48%
Devon Energy Corporation DVN $44.86 $27.06 -40%
Woodside Energy Group WDS A$32.55 A$20.71 -36%
EQT Corporation EQT $54.06 $42.85 -21%
Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL $342.77 $77.26 -77%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Hemisphere Energy Corporation (HME) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$2.63 versus a price of C$2.61, about +1% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of HME?
Our model-based fair value for Hemisphere Energy Corporation is C$2.63 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is C$2.61.
What is the quality score of HME?
Hemisphere Energy Corporation has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Hemisphere Energy Corporation (HME)?
Hemisphere Energy Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$76.7M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of HME?
The net profit margin of Hemisphere Energy Corporation is about 35.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 35.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Hemisphere Energy Corporation pay a dividend?
Hemisphere Energy Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.76% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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