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Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · US · Market cap $10.7B · ISIN US4132163001

What is Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited really worth?

HG Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited logo Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited HMY · US
Price$20.27
Fair Value$24.54
Upside+21.1%
Quality70/100

A solid business, trading 17% below our fair value of $24.54.

As of Aug 27, 2026, the fair value of Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited is $24.54 per share against a price of $20.27, so the fair value sits 21% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +20.4 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 20.1% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (9/12)
✓Wide moat 72/100

Risks

!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

For context

·2.40% dividend yield
Evidence: Medium Range $17.29 – $34.57

Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 10 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 27, 2026, revised from $24.26 to $24.54 (+1.2%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +12.1% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • A fairly wide model range ($17.29 to $34.57) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
  • The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
  • Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$25.55 $1.89 Fair Value $24.54 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.89 – $25.55 · fair‑value band $17.29 – $34.57 · the $20.27 price screens below the $24.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) currently trades at $20.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $24.54, implying the stock looks roughly 17.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $231.59 per share, and 26 of the 26 models we run sit above the $20.27 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $51.72, and 0 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited generated revenue of $81.2B at a net margin of 20.1%. Revenue grew 19.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 33.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $10.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $17.29 (bear case) to $34.57 (bull case); at $20.27, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at 21%, HMY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $249.96 $458.73 $837.01 77
Growth DCF $246.41 $432.84 $758.28 76
EPV $226.74 $261.54 $291.99 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $249.96 $458.73 $837.01 77
Owner Earnings $176.41 $319.00 $577.37 73
5Y Revenue Exit $175.81 $287.06 $438.13 72
5Y EBITDA Exit $284.63 $518.24 $819.03 73
5Y P/E Exit $278.88 $506.02 $773.12 69
10Y Revenue Exit $194.03 $310.08 $489.66 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $271.50 $482.45 $818.03 66
10Y P/E Exit $267.64 $473.33 $778.45 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $156.54 $802.67 $1,109 64
Lynch FV $218.83 $312.62 $406.40 61
PEG = 1.0 $218.83 $312.62 $406.40 57
EPV $226.74 $261.54 $291.99 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $30.23 $62.85 $99.70 66
DDM Multi-Stage $30.23 $53.00 $65.96 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $293.51 $391.35 $489.19 63
P/S Multiple $133.05 $177.40 $221.75 58
P/B Multiple $173.69 $231.59 $289.49 55
EV/EBIT $360.02 $474.05 $588.08 66
EV/EBITDA $320.40 $421.23 $522.05 67
EV/Revenue $142.11 $195.33 $248.55 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $38.60 $51.72 $77.20 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $246.41 $432.84 $758.28 76
Rev-Margin DCF $175.81 $285.03 $430.93 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income $169.02 $250.34 $2,370 64
ROIC Compounder $253.63 $327.51 $418.14 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $296.90 $424.14 $551.38 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($458.73) versus Asset-Based ($51.72). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 12.6
P/S ratio 2.46 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $1.59 price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.6
Dividend yield 2.4% payout 30.6%
Net margin 19.5% FY2025
Return on equity 33.5% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 13.9% avg 5y
Operating margin 33.3% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $81.2B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +19.5% 3y avg +20.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +22.7%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $10.8B FY2025
Net cash $10.9B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 70/100

Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62

Profitability 84
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 80
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 65
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 84
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 15
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 42
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 68
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 73
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 78
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited engages in the exploration, extraction, and processing of mineral properties in South Africa, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. The company explores for gold, uranium, silver, and copper deposits.

Full company description

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited engages in the exploration, extraction, and processing of mineral properties in South Africa, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. The company explores for gold, uranium, silver, and copper deposits. It has nine underground operations in the Witwatersrand Basin; the Kraaipan Greenstone Belt; and various surface source operations in South Africa. In addition, the company owns interests in the Hidden Valley, an open-pit gold and silver mine; and the Wafi-Golpu project located in Morobe Province in Papua New Guinea. Further, it holds interest in Eva Copper Project located in Queensland, Australia. Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited was incorporated in 1950 and is based in Randfontein, South Africa.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited reported revenue of 73.9B ZAR in FY2025 versus 41.7B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +15.4%/yr. Reported net income was 14.4B ZAR in FY2025, compounding +29.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$73.9B
Latest YoY
+20.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+20.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+20.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (27Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+16.7%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in ZAR) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +25.0% (approximate, leans on 2025) · in USD
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+22.6%
Dividend yield2.4%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 22.6% vs 10Y 26.8%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1.2% (2020) → 27.5% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop358% (2018) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
⚠ Rate leans on 2025: that final year sits 114% above its own trend (e.g. a one-off disposal gain) and could not be adjusted
Revenue +15.4%/yr
FY21 41.7B ZAR
FY22 42.6B ZAR
FY23 49.3B ZAR
FY24 61.4B ZAR
FY25 73.9B ZAR
Net income +29.7%/yr
FY21 5.1B ZAR
FY22 −1.1B ZAR
FY23 4.8B ZAR
FY24 8.6B ZAR
FY25 14.4B ZAR

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HMY.US

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Gold · 244 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +18% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 33% · Top 25%
Return on assets 17% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 20% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 33% · Above median
Revenue growth 20% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.4% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.04× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.6× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 1.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 0.03× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE58 · sector 0
FUTURE98 · sector 100
PAST100 · sector 1
HEALTH98 · sector 98
DIVIDEND48 · sector 20

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Newmont Corporation NEMCL $128.00 $112.82 −12%
Zijin Mining Group 601899 ¥32.21 ¥39.42 +22%
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM C$268.76 C$213.40 −21%
Barrick Mining Corporation B $41.23 $50.66 +23%
Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV $266.18 $96.63 −64%
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM C$201.40 C$56.05 −72%
AngloGold Ashanti plc AU $97.92 $88.63 −9%
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC $30.87 $34.62 +12%
Royal Gold, Inc RGLD $262.85 $93.56 −64%
Northern Star Resources Limited NST A$23.19 A$15.98 −31%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $24.54 versus a price of $20.27, about +21% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HMY?
Our model-based fair value for Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited is $24.54 (as of Aug 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $20.27.
What is the quality score of HMY?
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $24.54 (as of Aug 27, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $17.29, optimistic scenario $34.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $24.54, about +21% upside versus a price of $20.27 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $17.29, optimistic scenario $34.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY)?
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $81.2B (latest available figure, as of Aug 27, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of HMY?
The net profit margin of Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited is about 20.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 20.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited pay a dividend?
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.40% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 27, 2026).
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