Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) (HOSHF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) $655, price $1,679, upside -61.0%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
24‑month range $1,171 – $1,679 · fair‑value band $309.02 – $1,443 · the $1,679 price screens above the $654.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) invests in hotels, ryokans (Japanese-style inns) and ancillary facilities. It serves at the core of the tourism industry and for which stable use is expected for the medium to long term. HRR was established under the Act on Investment Trusts and Investment Corporations (Act No.
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Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) invests in hotels, ryokans (Japanese-style inns) and ancillary facilities. It serves at the core of the tourism industry and for which stable use is expected for the medium to long term. HRR was established under the Act on Investment Trusts and Investment Corporations (Act No. 198 of 1951, as amended; hereinafter, the Investment Trusts Act) with Hoshino Resort Asset Management Co., Ltd. (hereinafter, the Asset Management Company) as the organizer and investments in capital of 150 million yen (300 units) on March 6, 2013. An issuance of new investment units through public offering (19,000 units) was implemented with July 11, 2013, as the payment due date, and the investment securities were listed on the Real Estate Investment Trust Securities Market of Tokyo Stock Exchange, Inc. (hereinafter, the Tokyo Stock Exchange) (securities code: 3287) on July 12, 2013. HRR has steadily expanded its asset size since, bringing the assets held by HRR as of the end of the fiscal period under review to 69 properties (sum total of acquisition price: 226,650 million yen).
Stock analysis
Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) (HOSHF) currently trades at $1,679, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $654.90, implying the stock looks roughly 156.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 24 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at high.
Scenario range: $309.02 (bear) to $1,443 (bull), the price of $1,679 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) reported revenue of ¥16.3B in FY2026 versus ¥9.4B in FY2022, a compound +14.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥6.3B in FY2026, compounding +21.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $984M · P/E ratio 20.9 · P/S ratio 8.12 · EPS (TTM) $80.42 · Dividend yield 5.0% · Net margin 38.9% · Return on equity 5.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −61%, HOSHF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $309.02Fair Value $654.90Bull $1,443
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−2.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−7.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.55% → 48%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+24.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +21.5% a year for the price.
Compare Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Hotel & Motel · 35 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−61% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)42% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)54% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth16% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)5.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.60× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Hotel & Motel median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)20.9× · Pricier than median
P/B1.07× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)8.73× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF0.2× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA17.3× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 51
FUTURE (revenue growth)82· sector 2
PAST (return on equity)21· sector 6
HEALTH (low debt)70· sector 74
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 100
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HOSHF
Frequently asked questions
Is Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) (HOSHF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $654.90 versus the last price from Sep 18, 2026 of $1,679, about −61% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HOSHF?
Our model-based fair value for Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) is $654.90 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 18, 2026): $1,679.
What is the quality score of HOSHF?
Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) (HOSHF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $654.90 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $309.02, optimistic scenario $1,443. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $654.90, about −61% upside versus the last price from Sep 18, 2026 of $1,679 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $309.02, optimistic scenario $1,443. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) (HOSHF)?
Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥17.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) pay a dividend?
Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.98% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) (HOSHF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) would have to grow free cash flow by +24.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.0 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HOSHF use?
Our models discount Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.29, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) that is +24.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) (HOSHF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) grew +6.0 % a year. The price currently implies +24.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) (HOSHF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) (+24.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) (HOSHF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.66 %: that much free cash flow Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) (HOSHF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) it is $654.90 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $1,679. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, HOSHF trades above its calculated fair value: price $1,679, fair value $654.90, a gap of about −61% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HOSHF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1,679); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($654.90). For Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) the two are $1,024 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) worth?
The market values Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) at about $984M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $1,679; our models calculate a fair value of $654.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HOSHF?
Our models span a range for Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR): cautious scenario $309.02, base $654.90, optimistic $1,443 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $1,679). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HOSHF?
Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $654.90 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 8.7, EV/EBITDA 17.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) (HOSHF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 5.2%, debt of 0.60 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HOSHF from its 52-week high?
Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) trades at $1,679, at its 52-week high of $1,679 and 24% above the low of $1,352 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $654.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR)?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc, Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc, COVH, Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $1,679, calculated fair value $654.90 (−61%), Quality Score 54/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HOSHF calculated?
We run Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $654.90, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) (HOSHF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 18, 2026 and stands at $1,679. Our model-based fair value is $654.90, about −61% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1,443). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($309.02 to $1,443). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR)
How large is the market capitalisation of Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) (HOSHF)?
The market capitalisation of Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) is $984M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) (HOSHF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) is 8.12 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) (HOSHF)?
Earnings per share at Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) are $80.42 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) (HOSHF)?
The dividend yield of Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) is 5.0% (payout 104%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) (HOSHF)?
The net margin of Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) is 38.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) (HOSHF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) is 5.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) (HOSHF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) is 2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) (HOSHF)?
The operating margin of Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) is 53.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) (HOSHF)?
Revenue at Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) is growing +16.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) (HOSHF)?
Earnings per share at Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) are growing +26.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) (HOSHF) carry?
The net debt of Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (hereinafter, HRR) is ¥85.7B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 15.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026